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I guess "great" evaluative measure is relative.While it's important, I don't think it's a great evaluative measure given the fact that GPA inflation varies school by school. I guess that is why we have the MCAT, to balance everything out.
Everything you say about inflation and variation is true. That's why MCATs aren't going anywhere.
And sure, if everyone has a 3.9, they lose their significance. But, even with inflation and variation, everyone doesn't have a 3.9. And if you don't then it's pretty damn important, since that's the median at top schools (actually, 3.95 at a school like NYU -- can you imagine? 🙂).
3.74 is the national mean for matriculants. Try telling someone with a very solid 3.5 or 3.6 GPA and no acceptances that GPA is not a great evaluative measure. You are correct, but that's assuming you have a 3.7+. Then it doesn't really distinguish you from the next candidate. Below 3.7, unless you have a pretty good X-factor, you start to have real problems.