Hey, I got the same letter. I've also heard the same thing, that unless your application is quite amazing, you probably won't get in right away. One 4th year I talked to said that MANY of her class got in off the waitlist. My stats are pretty good (31Q 3.6) but I wouldn't put them in the "amazing" category. The Ohio resident thing definitely goes for you but isn't totally necessary (Dr. Kirby said the real ratio is more like 50:50).
I wrote them a letter yesterday saying that Case was still my #1. I did not say that I would withdraw all my apps everywhere else if I got in, even though that's probably what I'll do. That letter will come later...
Chin up, my friend. 🙂