Caveat: I was in a similarish position in my cycle and picked Duke (finances were also a factor in my decision). Obviously biased, but love it here, zero regrets.
For whatever reason, Duke doesn't publicly post their full match list (feel free to DM me if you want the specific deets). However, the general trend for most common match locations is about 1/4-1/3 of ppl home match back to Duke, followed by MGH/BWH, Stanford, Northwestern, UCSF, and then roughly equal amounts to Columbia/Cornell NYP, Penn, Mayo MN, or Hopkins
I've talked to quite a few people who absolutely could have matched in the NE at the other T5/10 programs, but chose to rank Duke higher and home match. Their main motivation has been either cost of living related (residency salaries and home buying go much further in NC) or they believe that the triangle is a better place to raise a family. Basically, Duke's match list (like all places) is heavily motivated by peoples' living preferences. The people I know that want to go NE match extremely well across the board in super competitive specialties (HSS for ortho, MGH for neurosurg, Wills for ophtho, etc), imo I'd treat prestige/match potential as a wash.
I can also affirm that Duke is 100% P/F without any hidden ranking or MSPE adjectives. P/F clinicals are a little more controversial but, IMO, they are 1000% worth it and an absolute game-changer. You don't have to grind for each eval point and even if you get stuck with an attending on a bad week, it doesn't matter to your grade. This frees up more time for you to network in your specialty of interest and selectively find attending mentors in anesthesia or IM, who will have a much bigger impact on your match potential. I have a mix of friends at T10 schools both with/without P/F clinicals and people almost universally prefer P/F core clerkships.
If I were in your shoes again, I'd personally consider cost and living preferences high up in your decision for these two schools. I would also keep in mind that you'll have to submit ERAS pretty early in M4, so the vast majority of your research should be done by the end of M3. If you have any non-clinical interests, Duke-Margolis/UNC will probably be stronger in health policy and public health, while Penn-Wharton have the edge for straight entrepreneurship. Also, this isn't as concrete, but I have a friend at Perelman and I've heard very mixed things about the admin there being unresponsive with lots of turnover. I've done a lot of work with the med admin at Duke and, while it isn't perfect, it also doesn't seem to have those problems to the same degree.