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Can anyone point me in the direction of a thread or article that talks about which specialties will be in highest demand in 10 years and which won't. Couldn't find too much. Thanks in advance.
Can anyone point me in the direction of a thread or article that talks about which specialties will be in highest demand in 10 years and which won't. Couldn't find too much. Thanks in advance.
Unless pre-meds start following through on their interview promises and all go into primary care, isn't it a pretty safe assumption that FP will be in the highest demand?
Not totally sure, but I'll say that emergency medicine will always be in demand--people will never stop doing stupid stuff or putting stupid stuff in stupid places
Just remember that in the marketplace, demand is inextricably connected to supply. Even in fields with low absolute demand, a very tight supply can lead to high prices. This is the reason why derm and plastics will always be lucrative and why even given sky high demand for FPs and IMs, their salary will always be low.
I'll toss in my "predictions"...though they might suck:
FM pay and demand will go up. The value of preventive care is finally beginning to be recognized by the gov't, insurers, and society. Pay will go up to counteract the severe shortage of pcp's.
Cardiology will be in even greater demand. The McDonald's generation is just beginning to get their heart problems. It only gets worse from here, folks. Aging boomers...need I say more.
EM will actually go down, maybe a little...maybe alot. With a revitalization of primary care, people will stop using the ER as a PCP. This will drastically cut down on ER traffic and reduce the need for as many people on staff at any given time. Really depends on whether we wind up with free PCP care or not.
Anesthesia will hold fairly steady, although Nurse Anesthetist salaries will decline...they are way overpayed right now, and it's beginning to be realized.
Derm will face increasing competition from pcp et. al., but will be in greater demand due to the Tanning Generation coming up to bat with Cancer. More skin cancer = more derm work.
IM, OB, and Peds will stay fairly steady.
Rads will oscillate up and down a very little amount. Yes, there is outsourcing, but there is also IN-sourcing. No one wants to read films at night. India may read our films at night, but we can read theirs during the day. It'll all pan out in the end. Salaries will drop a bit, people will stop going into rads for the money, and pay will go right back up again. Also, the use of imaging is growing exponentially...although tort reform may trim that back a little bit.
Yes. I have a crystal ball. Just my guesses...
I have a feeling derm will not be nearly as lucrative in 10 years. If nurses can do family practice, gyn, and anesthesia, they can definitely do derm.
Being Indian I think I know Indians...they wont outsource their films, they hold on to it and wake up or just wait till day to read it.....
They've been trumpeting primary care about to come in to its own for eons and it's yet to happen. It's always just around the bend. In the early 1990's, there was a huge push (much bigger than now) and that didn't really seem to take.FM pay and demand will go up. The value of preventive care is finally beginning to be recognized by the gov't, insurers, and society. Pay will go up to counteract the severe shortage of pcp's.
You have more faith that universal coverage is going to actually arrive than I am. Regardless, most EM physicians aren't EM trained. I don't think folks are anticipating any glut of EM physicians as they're still working to phase in the idea that EDs should be staffed by EM BC docs.EM will actually go down, maybe a little...maybe alot. With a revitalization of primary care, people will stop using the ER as a PCP. This will drastically cut down on ER traffic and reduce the need for as many people on staff at any given time. Really depends on whether we wind up with free PCP care or not.
In-sourcing??? For who? The reason that stuff is outsourced from the US right now is for reasons of time and cost. Physicians in this country are the highest paid in the world by far. Who would possibly send their work to us? Never happen. Even if there was a huge demand for overnights (which I doubt), they'd be a lot wiser to look at Canada, where docs make a good bit less.Rads will oscillate up and down a very little amount. Yes, there is outsourcing, but there is also IN-sourcing. No one wants to read films at night.
For the OP a few thoughts,
2) There are really no fields in medicine where grads don't find jobs. You might not get the perfect fit in the perfect place with the perfect salary but you won't be working at Starbucks.
Yeah. I ran a 1/2 marathon saturday and passed a stand alone business called "Skin RN - Aesthetics"
In-sourcing??? For who? The reason that stuff is outsourced from the US right now is for reasons of time and cost. Physicians in this country are the highest paid in the world by far. Who would possibly send their work to us? Never happen. Even if there was a huge demand for overnights (which I doubt), they'd be a lot wiser to look at Canada, where docs make a good bit less.
But India sending X-rays to American physicians? They'd be raising costs x3-x10. Never happen.
This isn't entirely true. You're not going to work at Starbucks, but you may be stuck doing critical care instead of infectious disease, for example. Some medical subspecialties churn out more fellows than the market can accept.
This isn't entirely true. You're not going to work at Starbucks, but you may be stuck doing critical care instead of infectious disease, for example. Some medical subspecialties churn out more fellows than the market can accept.
Just remember that in the marketplace, demand is inextricably connected to supply. Even in fields with low absolute demand, a very tight supply can lead to high prices. This is the reason why derm and plastics will always be lucrative and why even given sky high demand for FPs and IMs, their salary will always be low.
IDK about projections, but here's how to tell what specialty is good for you.
In-sourcing??? For who? The reason that stuff is outsourced from the US right now is for reasons of time and cost. Physicians in this country are the highest paid in the world by far. Who would possibly send their work to us? Never happen. Even if there was a huge demand for overnights (which I doubt), they'd be a lot wiser to look at Canada, where docs make a good bit less.
But India sending X-rays to American physicians? They'd be raising costs x3-x10. Never happen.
I don't know if "reviewing the work" is going to save any time. Liability will still belong to the US radiologist, correct?
Every mom's gotta get her kid a Daytrana patch. They all have ADHD... simple as that.#1 in demand right now is child psych according to my human behavior professor.
Eh, I don't think so. First of all no one who does an ID fellowship is qualified to do CCM unless they also did a CCM fellowship. Secondly I don't think any IM subspecialty is especially saturated.
Look at Cards man, everyone and their mom goes into Cards and everyone talks about how full the market is. Yet I have never met someone practicing general IM b/c they couldn't find a job.
I have a feeling derm will not be nearly as lucrative in 10 years. If nurses can do family practice, gyn, and anesthesia, they can definitely do derm.
I highly doubt it.
For the extremely basic stuff, maybe. Poison ivy, eczema, acne. And simple cases, no complications within those cases.
Let's not forget derms are people that spend 3 years looking at subtle red blotches. I see a rash in clinic and I just mark down "rash, 1 cm, on R upper extremity" No idea how to proceed next.
I'm fairly certain nurses would have a similarly limited area of expertise when it comes to anything that's complicated.
And re: the aesthetics, again, nurses can make inroads. But people who are serious about the procedure (i.e. people who were going to pay you initially), are going to find a plastic surgeon/derm for the procedure. Not a nurse.
Pulling out my crystal ball....
Specialties that will grow
-geriatrics (medicine)
-psych geriatrics
-cardiology (interventional cardiology)
-interventional radiology
-nephrology (increasing waistlines--> increasing DMII--> increasing CRF)
-pulmonary & critical care (MICU, NICU)- baby boomers with COPD
-neurology (increase in stroke)
-vascular surgery (increase need for CEA)
-neurosurgery
-ortho (inc. hip replacements)
-ophthalmology (inc DMII--> inc diabetic retinopathy)
-urology (inc BPH and obstructive condition)
-colorectal surgery
-emergency medicine
Specialties that will continue to shrink
-cardiothoracic surgery
Specialties that will change
-emergency medicine--> loopholes allowing non-EM boarded physicians practicing in EDs will close, more mid-level providers
-primary care- continue to increase midlevel providers
I worked in an ID clinic for a few years before medical school. Of the fellows graduating over the previous 4 years, only one of them actually managed to land a job practicing as an ID doc. Two of them were doing critical care--don't ask me why critical care in particular. I talked about this for quite a while with the fellow who managed to actually land an ID spot, and he gave me the 'med students always think they won't have any trouble finding a job, but it's just not true' lecture.
Cards is totally different from ID because of the prevalence of cardiac disease. I wouldn't be surprised if you could open up a cardiac shop wherever you please. For ID, you're not going to just get patients with post-surgical infections just knocking on your door--you need a job at a reasonably large hospital.
Incidentally, you don't need a CCM fellowship to do critical care.
Edit: come to think of it, I may be remembering it wrong. They may have been going on to a CCM fellowship. In any case, they couldn't find an ID job.
Pulling out my crystal ball....
Specialties that will grow
-geriatrics (medicine)
-psych geriatrics
-cardiology (interventional cardiology)
-interventional radiology
-nephrology (increasing waistlines--> increasing DMII--> increasing CRF)
-pulmonary & critical care (MICU, NICU)- baby boomers with COPD
-neurology (increase in stroke)
-vascular surgery (increase need for CEA)
-neurosurgery
-ortho (inc. hip replacements)
-ophthalmology (inc DMII--> inc diabetic retinopathy)
-urology (inc BPH and obstructive condition)
-colorectal surgery
-emergency medicine
Specialties that will continue to shrink
-cardiothoracic surgery
Specialties that will change
-emergency medicine--> loopholes allowing non-EM boarded physicians practicing in EDs will close, more mid-level providers
-primary care- continue to increase midlevel providers
I highly doubt it.
For the extremely basic stuff, maybe. Poison ivy, eczema, acne. And simple cases, no complications within those cases.
Let's not forget derms are people that spend 3 years looking at subtle red blotches. I see a rash in clinic and I just mark down "rash, 1 cm, on R upper extremity" No idea how to proceed next.
I'm fairly certain nurses would have a similarly limited area of expertise when it comes to anything that's complicated.
And re: the aesthetics, again, nurses can make inroads. But people who are serious about the procedure (i.e. people who were going to pay you initially), are going to find a plastic surgeon/derm for the procedure. Not a nurse.
What happens when a DNP introduces herself as "Doctor" and says she completed a nursing residency in derm?
Derm is the juiciest, low-hanging fruit for the nurses to pick off first.
EM will actually go down, maybe a little...maybe alot. With a revitalization of primary care, people will stop using the ER as a PCP. This will drastically cut down on ER traffic and reduce the need for as many people on staff at any given time. Really depends on whether we wind up with free PCP care or not.
conveniently slathered in vasolineOh c'mon now, they fell on it.
If the nursing residency happened to be 3 years long and focused solely on skin care, then yeah, I'd say she would probably serve as an able substitute for a derm MD.
I don't see too many of those floating around though
You mentioned EM (my field and your prospective one) as a specialty that will be in high demand. It probably will but there are a few things working against it. If we ever pull our heads out of our arses and get a decent nationalized healthcare system people very well may stop using the ED for "primary care." Double coverage could be backed off in smaller EDs etc etc etc. Midlevels are moving into EM and if they keep pushing the having alot of physicians on duty in an ED could be seen as a luxury for which some hospitals would not want to keep paying.
If the nursing residency happened to be 3 years long and focused solely on skin care, then yeah, I'd say she would probably serve as an able substitute for a derm MD.
I don't see too many of those floating around though
Even if they have to do a 4 year residency, show me one nurse who wouldn't do it for the possible payday. Most would probably give their left arm to be able to call themselves a "nurse dermatologist".
Are ER's in general a money-maker or a sinkhole for most hospitals? It's the latter.