Did adcoms/schools in general know about the step 1 P/F change before it was officially announced?

[mk34]

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Just curious if this played into schools’ decisions to waitlist or accept a certain number of applicants

 

[dogbert2234]

We were in the middle of a class-wide discussion on wellness with one of our deans when the news broke. When we showed him the announcement, his jaw literally dropped. He spent the next 15 minutes telling us how people had been talking about this for years, but that there was no indication that Step1 would become pass/fail--in fact, he thought that more people were against the idea than in favor of it. So no, I don't think anyone knew before the announcement was made.

 

[ItAintEasyBeingCheesy]

Probably. These things don't happen in a vacuum. There's a lot that goes on behind the curtains which probably includes communication with school leadership.

In fact, one of the schools I interviewed at mentioned the P/F change (back in October) and proceeded to talk about how their curriculum would better prepare us for such a future. I'm guessing this is why so many schools have been condensing the first 2 years and replacing it with clinical experience- in order to make their students more competitive for this new era.

 

[gyngyn]

Just curious if this played into schools’ decisions to waitlist or accept a certain number of applicants

It had no effect on this year's decisions.
We knew it was coming.

 

[Goro]

Just curious if this played into schools’ decisions to waitlist or accept a certain number of applicants

It was a surprise to us, and no, why should it be a factor anyway?

 

[KnightDoc]

It was a surprise to us, and no, why should it be a factor anyway?

Because perception is reality? If applicants THINK attending higher ranked schools is going to be more important in this environment, it will drive their yields higher, whether or not it actually will be more important.

I'm just a premed who hasn't even applied yet, but I would think expected yield would be a very important factor in making admission decisions, since a very wise adcom said in another thread, just today, that deans get fired for underestimating their school's attractiveness. 🙂

 

[KnightDoc]

Premeds overthink everything. Nothing here is going to change the applicant pool at individual schools and therefore nothing will change how adcoms decide. all the factors that premeds think will drive where they apply to, the makeup of the applicant pool at any individual school remains quite stable as measured by the percentile of the aggregate applicant pool

additionally, in my experience the vast majority of premeds have little notion of what actually after acceptance other than a very broad idea of how they get educated and trained. The majority probably dont know anything that they have to take some sort “Board.” Most wont know how STEP works, that its name is USMLE, much less how its scored. Frankly I am shocked by the lack knowledge by entering med students on how they become doctors.

Okay, but there has been speculation all over SDN, supported by some of the adcoms who regularly post, that schools thus far have been more conservative with As and have been placing more people on WLs than in years past while waiting to see what happens as we get closer to 4/30. The reasons cited have been continued anxiety over the loss of the MAR, and concern that yields might be higher than expected due to the forthcoming Step 1 change.

 

[KnightDoc]

I think the STEP exams have nothing whatsoever to do with adcom decision. Loss of MAR, the variance of CTE across schools, etc are indeed factors.

Fine, but if overthinking premeds end up favoring higher ranked schools to an unexpected degree because of Step, that will screw up expected yields, won't it? If decisions don't take this possibility into account, don't higher ranked schools run the risk of over enrolling?

 

[Goro]

Fine, but if overthinking premeds end up favoring higher ranked schools to an unexpected degree because of Step, that will screw up expected yields, won't it? If decisions don't take this possibility into account, don't higher ranked schools run the risk of over enrolling?

What it will mean is that the Really Top Schools will get even more donations from rank-obsessed pre-meds, and those kids will have to apply in a second cycle.

Over-enrolling? Admissions deans, while being human, aren't stupid. They know how to make and cull a wait list. Hell, the DO schools never had a MAR and have been doing this for years.

And again, the lack of the MAR has nothing to do with Step I being P/F.

I'm getting a sense you're trying to make the facts fit your theories. Don't do that.

 

[KnightDoc]

What it will mean is that the Really Top Schools will get even more donations from rank-obsessed pre-meds, and those kids will have to apply in a second cycle.

Over-enrolling? Admissions deans, while being human, aren't stupid. They know how to make and cull a wait list. Hell, the DO schools never had a MAR and have been doing this for years.

And again, the lack of the MAR has nothing to do with Step I being P/F.

I'm getting a sense you're trying to make the facts fit your theories. Don't do that.

I was only asking about As vs. WLs. Increased donations are a given, and I wasn't asking whether adcoms would change what they are doing, other than, as has speculated on other threads, being more conservative with initial As, resulting on more people being WL, out of fear that yields at some schools might rise due to the Step change. The question has nothing to do with making and culling a WL, and everything to do with applicants maybe favoring higher ranked schools in the absence of Step 1 scores, and whether or not that was affecting initial As vs. WLs.

Either adcoms at top schools don't expect yield to change in response to the Step 1 changes, or they do and have adjusted initial As in response. Do you have a sense of which it is?

 

[Goro]

I was only asking about As vs. WLs. Increased donations are a given, and I wasn't asking whether adcoms would change what they are doing, other than, as has speculated on other threads, being more conservative with initial As, resulting on more people being WL, out of fear that yields at some schools might rise due to the Step change. The question has nothing to do with making and culling a WL, and everything to do with applicants maybe favoring higher ranked schools in the absence of Step 1 scores, and whether or not that was affecting initial As vs. WLs.

Either adcoms at top schools don't expect yield to change in response to the Step 1 changes, or they do and have adjusted initial As in response. Do you have a sense of which it is?

*sigh*

As and have been placing more people on WLs than in years past while waiting to see what happens as we get closer to 4/30. The reasons cited have been continued anxiety over the loss of the MAR, and concern that yields might be higher than expected due to the forthcoming Step 1 change.

And I (and gonnif) are telling you that the conservatism is coming from the lack of the MAR, NOT from ill-conceived Step I notions.

 

[Pepe18]

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[Lucca]

As compared to now where premeds favor low ranked schools over high ranked? Nothing will change on that front

All that will happen is that there will be a shift in focus to Step 2. People will focus less on Step 1, so the understanding and critical thinking that separates us from mid-levels will erode a bit. Getting AOA if your school has it will be more important because it gives PDs another data point now that they lost one. Schools may consider more required class time or grades in preclinicals because they need something to encourage students to study preclinical info.

Lol I don’t think critical thinking or understanding is in any danger at all.

 

[KnightDoc]

As compared to now where premeds favor low ranked schools over high ranked? Nothing will change on that front

All that will happen is that there will be a shift in focus to Step 2. People will focus less on Step 1, so the understanding and critical thinking that separates us from mid-levels will erode a bit. Getting AOA if your school has it will be more important because it gives PDs another data point now that they lost one. Schools may consider more required class time or grades in preclinicals because they need something to encourage students to study preclinical info.

But premeds have to some extent been favoring lower ranked, lower cost state schools over higher ranked, higher cost schools, justifying it by the thought that high Step 1 scores would mitigate. There have been plenty of posts lately stating that people are reevaluating that calculus in the wake of the Step developments.

 

[KnightDoc]

I have no evidence that this is true. As I said before, the "slice" of the aggregate applicant pool (as rank of MCAT/GPA within pool) applying at each individual school, has remain relatively stable for the last decade. The vast majority of premeds in application process never consider STEP at all when applying or taking up an acceptance.

Nobody has any evidence, because the change has just been announced. The question is, what is going to happen this year? The consensus among the adcoms, at least on this thread, is that the loss of the MAR had an impact on initial As last year as well as this year, and the recent Step change has not. I guess we'll see.

If top schools find themselves over enrolled this year because their yields unexpectedly jumped, then the collective anxiety of premeds on SDN will have been validated, and top schools will have a problem. If not, then it will have turned out that all of the nervous chatter on SDN did not ultimately result in a change in premed behavior. It may very well be that adcoms are being conservative enough in response to the loss of the MAR so as to make any change in premed behavior resulting from the Step change moot.

 

[proudofmykids]

IMHO, other measurements by RDs will fill the void of Step 1 going p/f.
In fact have heard that Step 2 will likely also follow suit in due time.
So in essence, other measurements will be used and nothing will have changed regarding higher vs lower ranked school selection pros and cons.

 

[Goro]

IMHO, other measurements by RDs will fill the void of Step 1 going p/f.
In fact have heard that Step 2 will likely also follow suit in due time.
So in essence, other measurements will be used and nothing will have changed regarding higher vs lower ranked school selection pros and cons.

No, all you're hearing is hyperventilating pre-meds and pre-clinical med students here on SDN say that Step I2 will be the new mania....with zero evidence.

We've seen multiple residents and attendings say that they will use other criteria. Look, they want people who they can work with for 3-7 years. Going to Harvard or Penn doesn't prevent candidates from being dinguses.

 

[KnightDoc]

No, all you're hearing is hyperventilating pre-meds and pre-clinical med students here on SDN say that Step I2 will be the new mania....with zero evidence.

We've seen multiple residents and attendings say that they will use other criteria. Look, they want people who they can work with for 3-7 years. Going to Harvard or Penn doesn't prevent candidates from being dinguses.

This might all be very true, but doesn't address the question as to whether the behavior of hyperventilating premeds will change in the interim, driving a change in admission yields until the dust settles years from now, and whether adcoms have anticipated and prepared for this possibility.

 

[Goro]

This might all be very true, but doesn't address the question as to whether the behavior of hyperventilating premeds will change in the interim, driving a change in admission yields until the dust settles years from now, and whether adcoms have anticipated and prepared for this possibility.

That's a hypothetical. And as yet, no one is talking about Step 2. It will probably take a decade to see if Step 2 becomes a malignant force the way Step 1 did.

Here's something else to consider: if the economy tanks, then more people will be applying to med school. We see this whenever the economy gets worse.

 

[Butters Stotch]

That's a hypothetical. And as yet, no one is talking about Step 2. It will probably take a decade to see if Step 2 becomes a malignant force the way Step 1 did.

Here's something else to consider: if the economy tanks, then more people will be applying to med school. We see this whenever the economy gets worse.

what do you think is the reason for more people applying to medical school when the economy gets worse? because being a doctor is one of the most secure professions?

 

[ItAintEasyBeingCheesy]

what do you think is the reason for more people applying to medical school when the economy gets worse? because being a doctor is one of the most secure professions?

Yes. Medicine offers unparalleled job security. People envy this more in a rough economy.

 

[KnightDoc]

what do you think is the reason for more people applying to medical school when the economy gets worse? because being a doctor is one of the most secure professions?

This, and, in general applications to all professional schools rise because college grads find it more difficult to get well paying jobs right out of school during a downturn, so grad school is perceived to be a good place to ride out a recession. I hear what @Goro is saying, but it's a lot more difficult to just apply to med school if the economy takes a dive than other professional schools (like law), because a competitive med school application takes years to cultivate. But, to @Goro's point, I guess he said that applications would spike, not that good applications would. 🙂 Also, I guess gap years during a recession would be more difficult if finding employment becomes more difficult, so I guess that could also cause applications to spike.

 

[proudofmykids]

what heard was

That's a hypothetical. And as yet, no one is talking about Step 2. It will probably take a decade to see if Step 2 becomes a malignant force the way Step 1 did.

Here's something else to consider: if the economy tanks, then more people will be applying to med school. We see this whenever the economy gets worse.

What I heard is that Step 2 will likely follow in going p/f as well. Hence other metrics will fill the voice.

 

[Goro]

what heard was

What I heard is that Step 2 will likely follow in going p/f as well. Hence other metrics will fill the voice.

Source, other than hyperventilating pre-meds and preclinical med students??? This is getting tiresome


but it's a lot more difficult to just apply to med school if the economy takes a dive than other professional schools (like law), because a competitive med school application takes years to cultivate

That doesn't stop people, Knight.

 

[KnightDoc]

Source, other than hyperventilating pre-meds and preclinical med students??? This is getting tiresome


but it's a lot more difficult to just apply to med school if the economy takes a dive than other professional schools (like law), because a competitive med school application takes years to cultivate

That doesn't stop people, Knight.

I knew you were going to say that!!

This, and, in general applications to all professional schools rise because college grads find it more difficult to get well paying jobs right out of school during a downturn, so grad school is perceived to be a good place to ride out a recession. I hear what @Goro is saying, but it's a lot more difficult to just apply to med school if the economy takes a dive than other professional schools (like law), because a competitive med school application takes years to cultivate. But, to @Goro's point, I guess he said that applications would spike, not that good applications would. 🙂 Also, I guess gap years during a recession would be more difficult if finding employment becomes more difficult, so I guess that could also cause applications to spike.

 

[Mr.Smile12]

Many of us knew about how the MCAT was going to change at least 8 years before it did. Discussions about USMLE changes weren't that far behind then.