You can believe what you'd like, but you are wrong imo. You have to realize, for example, that a lot of those "independent" applicants are DOs, not IMG/FMGs, or reapplicants/transfers that are US MD's like myself. During the interview trail, I met numerous US MD's who were changing specialty. Very few of the people I met were IMGs/FMGs actually, and if you look at residency rosters, you will find that most PMR spots are now taken up by US MDs or DOs with few IMG/FMGs.
Of the 383 positions in the match, 175 were filled by "others" many of which include DOs, reapplicants, transfers.
You look at typically more competitive specialties such as gas, rads, etc and you will see that they have a large % of foreign grads.
So while PMR is by no means derm, rad onc, ortho, or whatever, it is certainly becoming competitive. Applications have doubled in the past few years, scores have gone up dramatically, and most programs are filled with US MDs these days.
1. I did not know independent included DOs (lolz what a shame.. really why would they do that), so anything I said regards to US senior should has to be changed to US MD (Ooops!). However, that just means that it is difficult to gauge on how DOs will do since there was a slight increase in number of independent applicants (however, quantity vs. quality still in mystery without more data). But, I would assume that since US MDs chance of matching did not change too much from 2013, so it may be safe to say that DOs should not be different (I may be wrong here).
2. My reasoning for US MDs still stands since it comes from data = "In 2013, 204 US MD applicants matched when 242 applied = 85%. But in 2014, 208 matched and 243 applied = 86%. And, if you really want to play numbers game your way, then do you agree that both percentage and number wise, it was easier for US MD to match than last year? But, not for independent applicants? By how much? It is very difficult and confusing to determine this. It is because we need more data.
3. The data I provided has nothing to do with me not knowing who independent applicants are. They were equal to all the specialties. And, you say 'gas, rads, and etc and you will see that they have a large % of foreign grads.' Uh..please do not say you don't see the big picture here. I gave you my reasoning and a NRMP data, which will make most medical student would agree upon. It should not be about ranking specific specialties, it is about seeing a big picture. No "less competitive" specialties were able to make the top list and no "competitive" specialties made the bottom list. It should say something that PM&R actually was listed at the bottom list. Not saying it gives specific ranking, but it could show you the reason why it may be 'GROUPED" as one of the "less competitive" specialties. If you cant see it, then oh well...
Specialties with at least 10 positions in The Match and filled more than 90 percent by U.S. seniors:
Radiation Oncology (PGY-1): 100 percent
Radiation Oncology (PGY-2): 98.1 percent
Otolaryngology: 97.2 percent
Dermatology (PGY-1): 95.7 percent
Plastic Surgery (PGY-2): 95.0 percent
Thoracic Surgery: 95.0 percent
Orthopedic Surgery: 94.0 percent
Vascular Surgery: 92.7 percent
Top five specialties with at least 10 positions in The Match and filled with significant numbers of independent
applicants (calculated from table):
Pediatrics-Primary: 55.2 percent
Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation (PGY-2): 48.1 percent
Family Medicine: 46.4 percent
Internal Medicine (Categorical): 43.3 percent
Neurology (PGY-2): 41.9 percent
3. You say you met few IMGs/FMGs and now you see only few IMGs on the roster, but how can you know how much was it different from previous years objectively? You can not. What if it is a trend for most of the specialties? Your experience definitely says something, but nobody can prove anything from their personal experience (sampling bias). I personally know my fellow colleagues who have met and seriously questioned qualification for some of the other PM&R applicants during his interview trail. He said he felt disappointed/encouraging? at the same time. Totally different experience from yours, so no conclusions can be based on anybody's personal experience. Period.
4. Average step 1 score in general goes up every year and this past year it went up a bit drastically (I believe recent step 1 average 227 or something!), so it is not just us PM&R, average step 1 score of every specialty will go up. So again, we need data that PM&R's step 1 score went up higher in its "RANK" comparing to other specialties. Last time I checked it was still in bottom third as far as step 1 score goes. If the data shows differently for this year, then we can say for sure that it is getting competitive (step score wise). Until then, there is no point of even mentioning things about step 1 score.
5. From 2012 to 2014, total number of applicants has increased I believe about one or two thousand in general. That is the trend every year. (Every year there are record breaking number of US graduates, you can easily see it by Googling) Most specialty has increase in number for their total applicants. Not just PM&R. (Some may even have decrease in number, but again that does not mean anything). For PM&R, 80 or so more people applied and there was 30 more position created and offered (it looks fairly proportional to me). I do not know where you get the doubling numbers from. If you compare the data from 10 to 15 years, then the total number of applicants were drastically increased anyway (Most specialties would have doubling numbers anyways). It will take too much time for anyone to figure out which specialty had higher ratio on increase. However, I still believe higher number of applicants does not mean crap, again quality quality quality.
6. Most PM&R programs are not filled with US MDs. It was not for the previous years and it was not for 2014! I showed you the data and you stated it yourself and you are still contradicting yourself (I think that kind of shows your bias). In 2014, 393 spots were offered and 208 were filled with US MDs = 53%. In other words, if I see the roster of some PM&R programs, then half of them would be US MDs and other half would be DOs, FMGs, IMGs, or whoever. This has not changed from previous years, again I showed you the data on number 2.
Final conclusion = my point is very simple. It is not wise to gauge on 'competitiveness,' by just looking at this years % match rate and % position filled. You definitely need more objective data.
Well.. You see more qualified applicants... great! You see increase in number of applicants (not double LOLs)... great! You see increase in step 1 grades... great! You see most programs with US MDs (not true).. but well still great! That's all great, but we want to talk about competitiveness right? That is a measure that can only be determined by comparing with other specialties. There is no way one can gauge on competitiveness just by looking at one's own data.
I will overly simplify, but you will get the point. If I may make a comparison, then what you are saying is that if US's average income for household increased by average of 5% this year, which is far better than 3% past few years (definite increase for sure!!), then does that mean U.S. economy is definitely growing faster (more competitive) than other countries? But, what if the average of the other countries income also increased by 5% and U.S's economy rank still stuck at same place? It means that we are not that special anymore.
Let's wait for more results and COMPARE. That's all.