I would imagine an application to any non-integrated ophthalmology program (i.e. any program that requires you apply for a prelim year) would be affected, as I am pretty certain those are through NRMP. I don't know what percent of programs that would eliminate you from, proportionally speaking.
Also, maybe one of the program directors can comment on this, but I believe the NRMP would notify your medical school if you committed a match violation, which might cause you additional problems...