Drop in PSA Screening ---> more metastatic prostate cancer

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Radonc90

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On the news recently...

Drop in PSA Screening ---> fewer early prostate cancer and more metastatic prostate cancer.

Then from speaking with my M3 M4 med students who rotated through Primary Care during the last few yrs,
they are telling me that *many* (not all) PCPs now no longer screen their patients for prostate cancer with PSA.

Simply bc the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force stopped reccomending PSA screening ~ 2008, then modified
their position later:

If this is true, then expect fewer and fewer curative prostate cases and more mets (mets are mostly for medonc's and not us).

Is this the pattern you guys/girls see in recent years?

As much as we think prostate cancer starts with Urology (at least in the US), I think it starts upstream of the Urologists
at PCP level. Whatever the PCPs do upstream affect downstream (Uro and radonc)...

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I find this particularly interesting because of when I went to med school and the MD-PhD training process. When I started, PSA screening was routine and the USPSTF came out with the new recommendation against routine screening when I was an M1/M2. Then, I disappeared into the lab for several years, and when I came back out, it seemed like the teaching point was no routine screening.

Since going through residency, the patients we seem to be referred who received PSA screening do so at mostly their request, not at the PCP's insistence. There are definitely a handful of PCPs who do routine screening but I don't feel like that's the norm. I'm in a very high-density environment for medicine/academic medicine, so "current guidelines" are often adopted and adhered to in my neck of the woods.

That being said, I don't have a sense for if there has been a change in the incidence of early vs metastatic patients referred to us. Honestly, the theme that I've been seeing over the past several months is advanced/metastatic cancer because of COVID and people's unwillingness/inability to come in for workup out of fear of the pandemic. Its been sad.
 
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It's not #grafriday but here you go.

There has been a 17% drop in the number two indication in radiation oncology (breast is number one) over the last 15 years. This percent value drop in CaP has been essentially percent value triple increased by the number of radiation oncologists in that time period FWIW.

9nxwMJQ.png


sources:
 
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It's not #grafriday but here you go.

There has been a 17% drop in the number two indication in radiation oncology (breast is number one) over the last 15 years. This percent value drop in CaP has been essentially percent value triple increased by the number of radiation oncologists in that time period FWIW.

9nxwMJQ.png


sources:

The drop in prostate cancer incidence really started 25 years ago (and some of it overlapped with rad onc's "golden years" surprisingly). I think if we want to survive as a field the number one indication for radiation has got to become something other than breast or prostate cancer


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Better molecular testing could certainly help us zero in on the 20 % of breast /prostate who benefit from xrt- then maybe lung could dethrone them. (although 🫁 is also falling as smoking rates are less than half that in the 70s) With an 80% decrease in prostate/breast and only 40% decrease in lung, maybe lung would come out on top. Is that what you had in mind?
 
Thankfully STAMPEDE keeps us relevant in low volume metastatic (pending you receive consult)

Urologists been pushing hard at our instruction to enroll on SWOG study

Will be curious if enough patients to see if it is surgery vs RT that adds benefit rather than basket any local therapy
 
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Will also be interesting to see if USPSTF updates their recs with 18 year ERSPC data next year. I doubt it as going from D to B would force them to admit a mistake. C is always defensible because “shared decision making weighing the pros and cons” could apply to every decision in medicine.

NNS for PSA testing is already better then breast and colon. My guess is with the 18 year data you’ll save 1 life for every 400 patients offered screening. The real number is likely what we see in the less contaminated Rotterdam and gotteborg cohorts which is closer to 200s.
 
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Things coming full circle back to the pre PSA era
 
Things coming full circle back to the pre PSA era

That's UK data where they worse stage IV survival in all diseases. But still. I hope PSA screening does not come back to freewheeling 2000's
 
NNS for PSA testing is already better then breast and colon.
Curious about this. Cochrane meta-analysis of largest trials leave a lot to be desired for all screening. Especially prostate.

Also NNS to prevent what? A death? A prostate cancer death? To diagnose one additional prostate cancer?
 
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Curious about this. Cochrane meta-analysis of largest trials leave a lot to be desired for all screening. Especially prostate.

Also NNS to prevent what? A death? A prostate cancer death? To diagnose one additional prostate cancer?
No one couches it this way, but we ran a trial on the whole planet where we instigated widespread PSA screening. Then we ran a trial decades later stopping the screening. (We are now technically still in that trial period.) We now have analysable data from those two trials. In comparison all other “PSA screening trials” are small and measly.
 
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No one couches it this way, but we ran a trial on the whole planet where we instigated widespread PSA screening. Then we ran a trial decades later stopping the screening. (We are now technically still in that trial period.) We now have analysable data from those two trials. In comparison all other “PSA screening trials” are small and measly.
And if survival improved as PSA screening declined (as it did) then it will be tough to show any benefit to PSA screening.

Regardless when the benefit is so small then small risks associated with treatment become meaningful. If prostate cancer specific survival is a worthwhile endpoint in a vacuum then we should give every man a prostatectomy around age 50.
 
No one couches it this way, but we ran a trial on the whole planet where we instigated widespread PSA screening. Then we ran a trial decades later stopping the screening. (We are now technically still in that trial period.) We now have analysable data from those two trials. In comparison all other “PSA screening trials” are small and measly.

The problem is that this is highly confounded. The development of novel AR targeting agents truly revolutionized the treatment of metastatic prostate cancer in a way that basically is unmatched since the development of ADT in treating a metastatic solid organ malignancy. Survival should have improved. Plateauing with higher rates of metastatic disease does tell you something as well.
 
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Curious about this. Cochrane meta-analysis of largest trials leave a lot to be desired for all screening. Especially prostate.

Also NNS to prevent what? A death? A prostate cancer death? To diagnose one additional prostate cancer?

The problem with meta analysis is GIGO (garbage in garbage out). The ERSPC trial is an ok trial with a large amount of PSA contamination in the control arm. The PLCO trial is a steaming pile of garbage with more PSA screening in the control arm then in the PSA screening arm. Adding garbage to OK data doesn't give you better data, it confounds the halfway decent data you have.

The numbers I'm quoting are the number needed to offer PSA screening to (not actually screen) to prevent one prostate cancer mortality. At 16 years, the ERSPC trial had a NNS of 570, with a diagnosis (not necessarily a treatment) of 18 men to prevent 1 PCSM and 3 cases of metastatic disease. The Goteborg PSA trial found that at 18 year followup, the NNS was 231 to prevent one PCSM, and the number of cases you needed to diagnose was 10. The 19 year follow up of the original ERSPC cohort in Rotterdam found to have a NNS of 101 and the number needed to screen to prevent one case of M+ disease was 67. Think of that. You save one life for every 100 men you offer PSA screening to, and prevent a case of metastatic disease for 1 in 67. This is significant because this is one of the only cohorts with almost no PSA contamination in the control arm

Sorry I will get off my soapbox, but the USPSTF making it's grade D recommendation in the face of terrible (PLCO) or immature (ERSPC) data will go down as a major case of medical establishment screw up with a significant mortality cost.

 
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And if survival improved as PSA screening declined (as it did) then it will be tough to show any benefit to PSA screening.
I personally think a strong case can be made that survival has NOT declined with declining screening and is getting worse. Screening didn't decline so much as suddenly stop. (Can make some analogous discussions re: HRT and osteoporosis.) It's important to measure what's been happening since then. . . not e.g. what was happening 2010-2015 (or time points before then). I am strongly simpatico with those who feel "Between the years 1994 and 2005 the prostate cancer mortality rates in the US fell about 4% a year... There is no plausible explanation for this except for screening."

If prostate cancer specific survival is a worthwhile endpoint in a vacuum then we should give every man a prostatectomy around age 50.
Or give every man Avodart. (Only half joking.)
 
The problem is that this is highly confounded. The development of novel AR targeting agents truly revolutionized the treatment of metastatic prostate cancer in a way that basically is unmatched since the development of ADT in treating a metastatic solid organ malignancy. Survival should have improved. Plateauing with higher rates of metastatic disease does tell you something as well.
Survival but at what quality?
 
Survival but at what quality?

Arguments on both sides of the coin there.
PSA screening improves survival at the expense of overtreatment and QOL impact on some med whose cancer would not have progressed. We're getting much better at patient selection and improving overtreatment, but still have a long way to go.

On the other side, looking only at survival doesn't take into account the QOL impact of locally progressive or metastatic prostate cancer in men who died of other causes (many patients). There are also likely many men who die of cardiovascular disease that is partly 2/2 ADT or the effects of metastatic disease that aren't counted in PCSM. Or it doesn't take into the account the QOL improvement that local therapy has on patients who then still died of prostate cancer. Agreed that extending life on ADT + AR inhibitors is not the same as preventing metastatic disease.
 
The problem with meta analysis is GIGO (garbage in garbage out). The ERSPC trial is an ok trial with a large amount of PSA contamination in the control arm. The PLCO trial is a steaming pile of garbage with more PSA screening in the control arm then in the PSA screening arm. Adding garbage to OK data doesn't give you better data, it confounds the halfway decent data you have.

The numbers I'm quoting are the number needed to offer PSA screening to (not actually screen) to prevent one prostate cancer mortality. At 16 years, the ERSPC trial had a NNS of 570, with a diagnosis (not necessarily a treatment) of 18 men to prevent 1 PCSM and 3 cases of metastatic disease. The Goteborg PSA trial found that at 18 year followup, the NNS was 231 to prevent one PCSM, and the number of cases you needed to diagnose was 10. The 19 year follow up of the original ERSPC cohort in Rotterdam found to have a NNS of 101 and the number needed to screen to prevent one case of M+ disease was 67. Think of that. You save one life for every 100 men you offer PSA screening to, and prevent a case of metastatic disease for 1 in 67. This is significant because this is one of the only cohorts with almost no PSA contamination in the control arm

Sorry I will get off my soapbox, but the USPSTF making it's grade D recommendation in the face of terrible (PLCO) or immature (ERSPC) data will go down as a major case of medical establishment screw up with a significant mortality cost.

Thanks. Confidence intervals in ERSPC won't help the case to USPTF to change recommendation.

Weighing risks benefits of screening/overtreatment etc. Will you personally get PSA screening? If so then starting when and at what interval?
 
Thanks. Confidence intervals in ERSPC won't help the case to USPTF to change recommendation.

Weighing risks benefits of screening/overtreatment etc. Will you personally get PSA screening? If so then starting when and at what interval?
I will. Starting at age 50 with plans for q2y intervals. If levels very low (<1) then can de-escalate. Stopping at age 70 unless I'm in miraculous health in which case continuing until 75. If levels are elevated no biopsy unless MRI positive or concerning PSA trend.
 
I will. Starting at age 50 with plans for q2y intervals. If levels very low (<1) then can de-escalate. Stopping at age 70 unless I'm in miraculous health in which case continuing until 75. If levels are elevated no biopsy unless MRI positive or concerning PSA trend.
Why stop at 75? If you're in that "miraculous health" range at 75, 50/50 odds you make it to age 104.
We (those who treat or research CaP) haven't mentioned the MRI'ing enough as an (new) adjunct to PSA and how that changes harms of screening discussions. For many men with elevated PSA the risk is no longer the risk of biopsy but simply the risk of exposure to a strong magnetic field.

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I will. Starting at age 50 with plans for q2y intervals. If levels very low (<1) then can de-escalate. Stopping at age 70 unless I'm in miraculous health in which case continuing until 75. If levels are elevated no biopsy unless MRI positive or concerning PSA trend.

I will admit that you are much more knowledgeable on the PSA screening data than I am, thanks for your insight.

Fully agree with the bolded - I think the 'danger' of PSA screening is too much prostate biopsy, which in the current era, should not be a fear anymore given the utility of prostate MRI.
 
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I’m going to start my screening at age 50. However, what we choose to do isn’t necessarily applicable to the general population, as we obviously know about the disease in great detail and can direct our care a bit if PSA rises.
 
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One benefit in PSA screening and biopsies that is difficult to measure is the knowledge gained from better understanding the natural history of prostate cancer by getting tissue early in the disease course. Things like DECIPHER don't exist unless there is a huge pool of tissue from early stage disease from which to draw from. Hard to measure how much that has helped shaped our ability to treat aggressive disease, but certainly from biological standpoint I don't think we would we would know as much about prostate cancer if PSA screening didnt exist
 
One benefit in PSA screening and biopsies that is difficult to measure is the knowledge gained from better understanding the natural history of prostate cancer by getting tissue early in the disease course. Things like DECIPHER don't exist unless there is a huge pool of tissue from early stage disease from which to draw from. Hard to measure how much that has helped shaped our ability to treat aggressive disease, but certainly from biological standpoint I don't think we would we would know as much about prostate cancer if PSA screening didnt exist

I get where you're coming from, but I'm not submitting to a prostate biopsy (in the setting of a prostate MRI being negative) to help somebody else make money by creating something like DECIPHER.
 
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NNS to ruin a man's mental health for 6 months = between 5 to 10, probably
 
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Winners and Losers​

Daniel Merenstein, MD

JAMA. 2004;291(1):15-16. doi:10.1001/jama.291.1.15


There are many losers in this story: the man with incurable prostate cancer, me, my family, family practice residency programs, national guidelines, the shared decision-making model, and anyone who believes in evidence-based medicine (EBM). There were also a few winners: the man with prostate cancer's lawyer, to some extent his family, and anyone who wants to continue to practice outdated medicine or doesn't believe in continuing medical education.

The date was July 19, 1999, when as a third-year resident I saw a highly educated 53-year-old patient. In June 2002, my residency and I were served with court papers. June 2003, the trial.

On that day in July 1999 I saw the 53-year-old man for a physical examination. I discussed with him, and documented in his chart, the importance of colon cancer screening, seat belts, dental care, exercise, improved diet, and sunscreen use. I also presented the risks and benefits of screening for prostate cancer and documented the discussion. I never saw the patient again, and after I graduated, he went to another office. His new doctor ordered prostate-specific antigen (PSA) testing without discussing the risks and benefits of screening with him. Unfortunately for the patient, his PSA level was very high and he was subsequently diagnosed with incurable advanced prostate cancer. This patient lost on many accounts. For starters, he had a horrible cancer (Gleason 8), a cancer that is very difficult to treat in any stage and even harder to find early in its course. The literature does not support that early detection would have changed his outcome, although society and many physicians do believe so, thus making the patient live with the false belief that if something had been done differently, he would have survived longer. Clearly, this patient lost the most in this story.

When the trial started on June 23, 2003, I was nervous but confident. I realized that the patient was going to say we had never discussed prostate cancer screening but since I always do and had documented it, I didn't think this would be a very strong plaintiff argument. What I didn't anticipate was that the plaintiff's attorney was going to argue that I should have never discussed the risks and benefits and should have just ordered the PSA. But he did. In fact, a major part of his argument was that there is little risk involved in performing a PSA and that the standard of care is to order the test. Although we had the recommendations from every nationally recognized group supporting my approach and the literature is clear that screening for prostate cancer is controversial, the plaintiff's attorney argued otherwise.

In the medical world it is well accepted that screening for prostate cancer is a risky proposition, in which there is the potential for more harm than good. Nearly all of the national guidelines—including those of the American Academy of Family Physicians, the American Urological Association, and the American Cancer Society—recommend nearly identical approaches a physician should take when it comes to prostate cancer screening. This approach is discussing with the patient the risks and benefits, providing thorough informed consent, and coming to a shared decision. Family medicine has begun to stress the shared decision-making model because of the uncertainty in the literature with regard to such practices as hormone therapy, screening mammography, and many other medical procedures. The shared decision-making model and national guidelines are both losers in this story.

As the trial progressed we presented national experts who discussed the controversy surrounding prostate cancer screening and explained some of the potential dangers of PSA. We discussed such things as false positives, indolent vs aggressive cancers, sensitivity and specificity. Our experts explained that because of the questionable benefit vs associated risks of PSA screening, a shared decision by the physician and the patient was recommended by all of the national health associations. The science was clearly in our favor.

As a family physician I have reveled in keeping up-to-date and providing my patients with the best possible medicine. I have discussed with both patients and colleagues that simply ordering more tests because we have them is not always the best medicine. We have discussed false positives and their implications. The active practitioners who keep up-to-date and stay informed are the losers in this story. During that year before the trial, my patients became possible plaintiffs to me and I no longer discussed the risks and benefits of prostate cancer screening. I ordered more laboratory and radiological tests and simply referred more. My patients and I were the losers.

A major part of the plaintiff's case was that I did not practice the standard of care in the Commonwealth of Virginia. Four physicians testified that when they see male patients older than 50 years, they have no discussion with the patient about prostate cancer screening: they simply do the test. This was a very cogent argument, since in all likelihood more than 50% of physicians do practice this way. One may have argued that we were practicing above the standard of care, but there is no legal precedent for such an argument.

As is well documented in the literature, physicians take quite a long time to change their patients' protocols. Thus, we know that many practicing physicians are not using well-proven interventions or implementing well-publicized national guidelines. The legal definition of standard of care protects these physicians and encourages them to change slowly, if at all. It is often claimed that malpractice is a mechanism for holding physicians accountable and improving the quality of care. This case illustrates quite the opposite: punishing the translation of evidence into practice, impeding improvements to care, and ensconcing practices that hurt patients. In our legal system, the physicians who are slow to change are the winners.

During closing arguments the plaintiff's lawyer put evidence-based medicine on trial. He threw EBM around like a dirty word and named the residency and me as believers in EBM, and our experts as the founders of EBM. He defined EBM as a cost-saving method and stated his belief that the few lives saved were not worth the money. He urged the jury to return a verdict to teach residencies not to send any more residents on the street believing in EBM.

Before this case, I believed that following the current literature and evidence-based medicine was well accepted in medicine and throughout the country. Neither my lawyers nor the judge ever questioned if the plaintiff's attorney could argue against EBM or the national guidelines; the argument was clearly admissible. Sackett and colleagues have generally been given credit for reviving the idea of EBM, which is generally defined as the "conscientious, explicit, and judicious use of current best evidence in making clinical decisions about the care of individual patients."1 Evidence-based medicine was a loser.

On June 30, 7 days after the trial started, I was exonerated. My residency was found liable for $1 million.

The plaintiff's lawyer was convincing. The jury sent a message to the residency that they didn't believe in evidence-based medicine. They also sent a message that they didn't believe in the national guidelines and they didn't trust the shared decision-making model. The plaintiff's lawyer won.
As I see it, the only way to practice medicine is to keep up with the best available evidence and bring it to my patients.

As I see it, the only way to see patients is by using the shared decision-making model. As I see it, the only way to step into an examination room is to look at a patient as a whole person, not as a potential plaintiff. As I see it, I'm not sure I'll ever want to practice medicine again.
 
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holy crap, @scarbrtj

That makes me never want to practice again either. Unfortunately it's congruent with what I've heard from my attorney friends - try to not go to trial, because it doesn't matter if evidence based matters are on your side, it becomes a show...and it's hard to predict how a jury will view that show.
 
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holy crap, @scarbrtj

That makes me never want to practice again either. Unfortunately it's congruent with what I've heard from my attorney friends - try to not go to trial, because it doesn't matter if evidence based matters are on your side, it becomes a show...and it's hard to predict how a jury will view that show.

How many criminal cases would end in acquittal if conviction did not require a unanimous verdict? Recall that civil cases simply require a majority vote for judgement against. Facts will always be of minimal value to an unfortunate volume of the jury pool which means that 1 or 2 level-headed jurors that actually follow the instructions can't save you on their own. Its sad. But there is good news for us as rad oncs. Errors of omission (like the above case) are by far the easiest thing to prove in court. Said another way, its easy to show that someone didn't do something at all than it is to show that they did something badly. Most successful cases against rad oncs are for pretty legit negligence. Back to the scary part: we are responsible for the whole team. Therapy used the wrong wedge for the wrong patient and now they have necrosis? Too bad. Its your team :(
 
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How many criminal cases would end in acquittal if conviction did not require a unanimous verdict? Recall that civil cases simply require a majority vote for judgement against. Facts will always be of minimal value to an unfortunate volume of the jury pool which means that 1 or 2 level-headed jurors that actually follow the instructions can't save you on their own. Its sad. But there is good news for us as rad oncs. Errors of omission (like the above case) are by far the easiest thing to prove in court. Said another way, its easy to show that someone didn't do something at all than it is to show that they did something badly. Most successful cases against rad oncs are for pretty legit negligence. Back to the scary part: we are responsible for the whole team. Therapy used the wrong wedge for the wrong patient and now they have necrosis? Too bad. Its your team :(

Terrifying story and a prime example of malpractice BS. Textbook malpractice requires duty, breach of SOC, and proven harm. This case had 1/3, a duty to the patient, but no SOC was breached and harm can’t be proven to be attributed to it even if it was. You could easily make the same case for a patient on AS who progresses to Mets. Rare but it happens.

That being said one of my attendings always preached in residency that errors of omission are worse then errors of comission. it’s the torsion you didn’t take to the OR that gets you sued, not the one you took unnecessary.
 
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Terrifying story and a prime example of malpractice BS. Textbook malpractice requires duty, breach of SOC, and proven harm. This case had 1/3, a duty to the patient, but no SOC was breached and harm can’t be proven to be attributed to it even if it was. You could easily make the same case for a patient on AS who progresses to Mets. Rare but it happens.

That being said one of my attendings always preached in residency that errors of omission are worse then errors of comission. it’s the torsion you didn’t take to the OR that gets you sued, not the one you took unnecessary.

The burden of proof for omission is just easier. It's pretty easy to testify that someone should have done something that they didn't. You are a surgeon. How badly would someone have to botch a prostatectomy for you to be able to review the operative report and other evidence and testify that you are confident the bad outcome was a direct result of incompetence and not just an unfortunate result of a difficult case? Same for us. If someone gets injured as a result of treatment how bad would it have to be to pin it on the treating physician? If they miss a cord dose of 75 Gy sure but that's not what usually happens. Fact is our "safe" dose limits predict <1-5% chance of severe toxicity, not zero. Under treatment is almost always more likely to get you into trouble than over treatment.

I am going to be involved in one of my patients malpractice cases (if it goes forward). I treated them for a pretty horrific anal cancer. They presented to an outside provider with rectal pain and bleeding. PCP sent them to GI who did a colonoscopy and didn't see anything abnormal other than external hemorrhoids. Patient was treated for hemorrhoids. No one performed a DRE or anoscopy. Pain and bleeding got worse. They tried other topical treatments which also failed. Still no DRE performed or documented. This went on for 11 MONTHS. The diagnosis was finally made when they developed a 3 cm inguinal node. What is the sensitivity of colonoscopy for detecting early anal lesions? <50%. The anal canal is not well visualized with a colonoscope. Its a classic teaching point. A patient presented with rectal pain and bleeding and no one evaluated the anal canal. Now, at initial presentation I get it. They had external hemorrhoids which could have explained the presenting symptoms. However, as symptoms started worsening over time (while the hemorrhoids were not) alarm bells should have been going off. I am willing to get involved on their behalf because I genuinely believe several things: her initial providers made multiple diagnostic mistakes over a prolonged period of time and the patient suffered significant and preventable harm as a direct result of their mistakes.
 
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