I think you can count on a few things now that the Medco/Express Scripts merger is complete.
1. Further PBM consolidation. This was almost inevitable after the merger was approved by the FTC. Actually, you are already seeing the beginnings of further consolidation within the PBM industry with the announcement of the SXC and Catalyst Rx deal. Sure that is on a whole different level than the likes of Medco and Express Scripts, but it is only the beginning.
http://www.chicagobusiness.com/arti...fits-firm-sxc-in-4-4-billion-deal-stock-jumps
2. Walgreens will renegotiate with the new Express Scripts Holding Co. Walgreens took a stand when they said no to Express Scripts. And they lost business because of it. When they let ESI go, other companies tried to take that business instead of following the lead of Walgreens. When the current Medco deal expires, expect the two companies to come to a new agreement. They may even try to barter a preferred provider status. Who knows? Anything is possible these days.
3. PBMs will flex their muscles. Even more than the current prescription contracts, the next wave of deals that PBMs will offer pharmacies will probably give us less money per prescription we fill. The PBMs will also continue to create preferred provider networks forcing patients into using a certain chain or mail order for maintenance prescriptions or only offering 90 days supply options at certain locations. They will also try to bargain their way to deep discounts on brand-named medications which may result in branded drugs being preferred more often even over generics.
4. New retail pharmacy models coming. In response to a business that just doesn't pay anything anymore, the big players in retail pharmacy like Walgreens will continue to experiment with alternative retail pharmacy business models that will save them labor costs and reduce their dependency on retail pharmacists. Central fill, remote counseling, tech-check-tech, and a whole lot of other options will all be considered. This is their answer to terrible reimbursement rates instead of fighting the PBMs directly.
5. Renegotiation of salaries of pharmacists. If the supply/demand equation remains in heavy favor of an abundance of pharmacists for the forseeable future, expect Walgreens and other employers to start a downward trend with pharmacist salaries. They know they can find someone who will do whatever they ask, so they will start freezing raises or worse, cutting salaries.
I realize all of this sounds bleak. Unfortunately, it also sounds plausible. The next few years is a very critical time for the profession of pharmacy and for retail specifically. What happens in the next 18-36 months may impact pharmacists for decades to come. I just hope some of the change coming will be positive.