The best advice I can give to people is to be pessimistic and to seek out interviews you haven't gotten, because that's what worked well for me. I applied to 40-44 programs (somewhere in there) because I was couples matching, ended up with ~21 interviews, and went on 15. It was a little more than it turned out I needed, but again, I was couples matching and I would MUCH rather spend the money up front then cancel offers than save money up front but end up not having enough interviews. And that's what I mean about being pessimistic.
The reason I'm saying all this is because no one can really tell you your chances of matching in a certain area of the country or at a certain tier, because we don't know the intricacies of your applications and we also don't know what PDs are really looking for. I mean, I got a 229 on step 1...yet I got interviews at several top 10 programs and matched at one, which probably goes against the suggestion one receives on your standard WAMC threads on SDN/AM. (Admittedly, I matched at my home program so I did have an advantage there, but it is where I wanted to be). So, what made up for my sub-par step 1 score, what many argue to be among the top 2 most important aspects of one's application? Was it my clinical grades? My research? The "prestige" of my med school? I have absolutely no idea, which is why my ability to advise others is as limited as everyone else. But I will tell you this. I'm sure I didn't have the lowest step 1 score of any applicant at top tier programs, there were plenty of applicants from "non-prestigious" med schools interviewing at the top tier, others had no research, etc. Who really knows what got us our interviews when we didn't have flawless applications?
Anyway, all I can say is...apply broadly (I'd say 25-30 programs at least), remain pessimistic/realistic, and don't leave anything to chance. If you're interested in a program and you haven't heard from them, make sure they know you still exist.
Best of luck, everyone. I am confident you will all match somewhere, and considering I think all programs will train you well, that's all you need. 🙂