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I decided to compile a summary of topics and misconceptions about the projected pharmacist job market, since they keep popping up on this forum.
“There’s no way salaries can drop that much with the saturation, can they?”
Supply and demand. Employers have their way when they get a flood of job applications from new graduates desperate to pay off their loans.
“Obamacare is going to increase demand for pharmacists since many new patients will be insured.”
Possible in the future, but that is uncertain. Rather, the opposite has occurred recently. Hospitals have already cut staff due to projected revenue shortfalls because institutions are expecting lower reimbursement rates under the new law. A decrease in compensation with an increase in patient load would not lead to expansion of health care resources but more rationing.
“Many pharmacists are expected to retire in coming years. That should create demand for us to replace them.”
Some pharmacist will retire, but keep in mind that the number of pharmacy school graduates will increase by a much greater margin. The number of pharmacy school slots has nearly doubled in the last decade, with more schools about to graduate their first class, and yet more that plan to open up in the near future. The openings freed by retiring pharmacists will be fought over fiercely by the wave of new graduates.
“Our roles are expanding. We can do MTM, give flu shots, and we have provider status in some states. Shouldn’t that create more jobs for us?”
I’ll let someone more experienced on the field elaborate on this, but terms like “MTM,” “pharmaceutical care,” “patient-centered care,” etc. have been discussed for many years with little of it actually being used in practice. There have been few opportunities to get reimbursed adequately for these services, with the exception of flu shots, which takes up time out of a busy retail pharmacist’s schedule. Without adequate reimbursement, there is little incentive to implement these services.
“The Bureau of Labor Statistics says that pharmacist demand is expected to increase in the next decade.”
Again, there may be job openings, but you will be competing against an even larger wave of new graduates that are just as desperate as you to start paying off loans. Also, the projected increase in demand is uncertain due to the projected reduction of reimbursements, which increases patient load but not the total amount of health care resources that can be provided.
“I’ll just network more, stand out, do a residency, and I’ll be able to find a job.”
That is easier said than done when the opportunities to stand out are getting more competitive. Not everyone will get that pharmacy internship, and not everyone will be able to juggle school (especially P2, P3 years) and a job at the same time. Even the market for PGY1s is getting saturated in many areas. If you’re confident that you’re able to stand out then by all means do your best, but don’t underestimate the difficulty of attaining such opportunities. Come in with the expectation that you will have merely a small chance of achieving close to what you want after you bust yourself to death.
“I’m going to pharmacy school because I don’t know what else I want to do.”
There are many careers out there that do not require you to take out $200,000+ in loans and go through another 4 years of schooling, yet have a similar or better level of job security. Also, I would recommend working in a pharmacy to make sure that this profession is fit for you. Choose wisely.
"Every field out there is saturated, and pharmacy is no exception."
Many fields out are saturated, but relatively few of them require you to take out $200,000+ in loans and go through another 4 years of schooling. Also, there are some fields that are not saturated and only require a BS degree. Hint: engineering.
"The AACP can do something to stop pharmacy schools from opening, can't they?"
The Sherman Antitrust Act would prevent the AACP from stopping a pharmacy school from opening as long as the school meets accreditation requirements.
"If you cannot get a job in retail or hospital, then just specialize and find a niche."
About 65-70% of the jobs are in retail, followed by about 20-25% in hospital (mostly dispensing). These "niche" jobs only make up about 10% of pharmacist jobs at most. We have only enough job openings for about 1/3 of the yearly 15,000 pharmacy school graduates, let alone the niche jobs.
"But I have already put so much effort in trying to get into pharmacy schools."
Beware of the sunk cost fallacy. It's easy to want to not feel that you have "wasted" your efforts in the pre-pharmacy track. To get a better idea of whether pharmacy is worth it, you would want to make sure to look at prospective costs. That is, you would want to compare the return on investment of starting anew and spending 2-3 years and minimal tuition at a local state school on a second degree in computer science, engineering, or finance compared to spending 4 years and $200k+ on pharmacy. You have yet to reach the worst part of taking out astronomical loans, so it is not too late to back out.
"I don't care about pay. I'm in the profession to help others."
First off, your views on money will most likely change when you have $200k+ student debt to pay off.
Second, if you go into pharmacy to "help people," then chances are that you may be disappointed. You will face metrics, workplace politics, bureaucracy, etc. that will get in the way of being able to help your patients. Remember that your employer is most likely a business and has still has to make a profit to survive.
“There’s no way salaries can drop that much with the saturation, can they?”
Supply and demand. Employers have their way when they get a flood of job applications from new graduates desperate to pay off their loans.
“Obamacare is going to increase demand for pharmacists since many new patients will be insured.”
Possible in the future, but that is uncertain. Rather, the opposite has occurred recently. Hospitals have already cut staff due to projected revenue shortfalls because institutions are expecting lower reimbursement rates under the new law. A decrease in compensation with an increase in patient load would not lead to expansion of health care resources but more rationing.
“Many pharmacists are expected to retire in coming years. That should create demand for us to replace them.”
Some pharmacist will retire, but keep in mind that the number of pharmacy school graduates will increase by a much greater margin. The number of pharmacy school slots has nearly doubled in the last decade, with more schools about to graduate their first class, and yet more that plan to open up in the near future. The openings freed by retiring pharmacists will be fought over fiercely by the wave of new graduates.
“Our roles are expanding. We can do MTM, give flu shots, and we have provider status in some states. Shouldn’t that create more jobs for us?”
I’ll let someone more experienced on the field elaborate on this, but terms like “MTM,” “pharmaceutical care,” “patient-centered care,” etc. have been discussed for many years with little of it actually being used in practice. There have been few opportunities to get reimbursed adequately for these services, with the exception of flu shots, which takes up time out of a busy retail pharmacist’s schedule. Without adequate reimbursement, there is little incentive to implement these services.
“The Bureau of Labor Statistics says that pharmacist demand is expected to increase in the next decade.”
Again, there may be job openings, but you will be competing against an even larger wave of new graduates that are just as desperate as you to start paying off loans. Also, the projected increase in demand is uncertain due to the projected reduction of reimbursements, which increases patient load but not the total amount of health care resources that can be provided.
“I’ll just network more, stand out, do a residency, and I’ll be able to find a job.”
That is easier said than done when the opportunities to stand out are getting more competitive. Not everyone will get that pharmacy internship, and not everyone will be able to juggle school (especially P2, P3 years) and a job at the same time. Even the market for PGY1s is getting saturated in many areas. If you’re confident that you’re able to stand out then by all means do your best, but don’t underestimate the difficulty of attaining such opportunities. Come in with the expectation that you will have merely a small chance of achieving close to what you want after you bust yourself to death.
“I’m going to pharmacy school because I don’t know what else I want to do.”
There are many careers out there that do not require you to take out $200,000+ in loans and go through another 4 years of schooling, yet have a similar or better level of job security. Also, I would recommend working in a pharmacy to make sure that this profession is fit for you. Choose wisely.
"Every field out there is saturated, and pharmacy is no exception."
Many fields out are saturated, but relatively few of them require you to take out $200,000+ in loans and go through another 4 years of schooling. Also, there are some fields that are not saturated and only require a BS degree. Hint: engineering.
"The AACP can do something to stop pharmacy schools from opening, can't they?"
The Sherman Antitrust Act would prevent the AACP from stopping a pharmacy school from opening as long as the school meets accreditation requirements.
"If you cannot get a job in retail or hospital, then just specialize and find a niche."
About 65-70% of the jobs are in retail, followed by about 20-25% in hospital (mostly dispensing). These "niche" jobs only make up about 10% of pharmacist jobs at most. We have only enough job openings for about 1/3 of the yearly 15,000 pharmacy school graduates, let alone the niche jobs.
"But I have already put so much effort in trying to get into pharmacy schools."
Beware of the sunk cost fallacy. It's easy to want to not feel that you have "wasted" your efforts in the pre-pharmacy track. To get a better idea of whether pharmacy is worth it, you would want to make sure to look at prospective costs. That is, you would want to compare the return on investment of starting anew and spending 2-3 years and minimal tuition at a local state school on a second degree in computer science, engineering, or finance compared to spending 4 years and $200k+ on pharmacy. You have yet to reach the worst part of taking out astronomical loans, so it is not too late to back out.
"I don't care about pay. I'm in the profession to help others."
First off, your views on money will most likely change when you have $200k+ student debt to pay off.
Second, if you go into pharmacy to "help people," then chances are that you may be disappointed. You will face metrics, workplace politics, bureaucracy, etc. that will get in the way of being able to help your patients. Remember that your employer is most likely a business and has still has to make a profit to survive.
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