I would say probably this summer. I applied in fall of R3 and definitely got the impression that I was late. I think my co-resident at the time applied around July-ish. The whole precedent of applying two years in advance is super dumb and not beneficial for either the applicant or the program, but I doubt it will ever change, especially without a formal match program.
As for research, I can't say. I only did a handful of posters to get free rides to conferences. I was never interested in academia and had no intentions of getting involved in any big papers. Surg path you should be fine. Heme might be a middle ground. Derm is the classic for needing to prove your dedication because of how competitive it is (as in you should have started prepping July 1 of PGY1 or earlier).