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Fencer said:
Unfortunately that is the trend that I have seen.... I was even told by an applicant that their college advisor (at an Ivy) told them NOT to use CYMS explicitly. I don't understand that attitude.
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What do you think will happen if the yield assumptions made by programs turn out to be completely wrong because accepted students play it safe and substantially higher percentages of accepted students matriculate into schools/programs that are not being investigated? I saw that none of the TX universities are on the list of 60.
 
ophthoaspirant said:
What do you think will happen if the yield assumptions made by programs turn out to be completely wrong because accepted students play it safe and substantially higher percentages of accepted students matriculate into schools/programs that are not being investigated? I saw that none of the TX universities are on the list of 60.
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I think the big unknown for most med applicants is financial aid. Certainly for MSTP's, the news about PhD admissions getting suspended and some funded labs getting shut down should make them worry.
 
For schools that are ranked below T30, how many accepted students must decline their offer for waitlist movement to occur (typically)? Thanks
 
cocobear1 said:
For schools that are ranked below T30, how many accepted students must decline their offer for waitlist movement to occur (typically)? Thanks
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It begins when accepted students are compelled to give up other seats. That points to the CYMS protocols, so April usually. We do not want a mad scramble close to our orientation dates. CYMS Commit timelines should begin in June as some schools have super-early orientation start dates by Father's Day (June 21-ish). (It used to be that most schools don't start in earnest until after July 1-4 weekend, but apparently other medical schools want the jumpstart.)
 
Mr.Smile12 said:
It begins when accepted students are compelled to give up other seats. That points to the CYMS protocols, so April usually. We do not want a mad scramble close to our orientation dates. CYMS Commit timelines should begin in June as some schools have super-early orientation start dates by Father's Day (June 21-ish). (It used to be that most schools don't start in earnest until after July 1-4 weekend, but apparently other medical schools want the jumpstart.)
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Thank you! For a ranked waitlist, would you say that for every 5 declined offers, 1 applicant is accepted from the waitlist? I am not sure what the ratio is so I appreciate any insight.
 
cocobear1 said:
Thank you! For a ranked waitlist, would you say that for every 5 declined offers, 1 applicant is accepted from the waitlist? I am not sure what the ratio is so I appreciate any insight.
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Every year is different, so one can't generalize it like this. It also depends on timing, program/track needs, and urgency. When the dust settles, there is a reason why admissions offices manage waitlists to re-fill the entire class multiple times (3-4x at least based on their history). The adage about "interviews three a doctor you will be" is related to managing collective waitlists, but the velocity of filling spots depends on how many offers get declined and why.

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cocobear1 said:
Thank you! For a ranked waitlist, would you say that for every 5 declined offers, 1 applicant is accepted from the waitlist? I am not sure what the ratio is so I appreciate any insight.
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Waitlist movement could be more this cycle at the “at-risk” schools, both T30 and below T30.
 
Mr.Smile12

Post in: 'Fencer's corner'

cocobear1 said:
For schools that are ranked below T30, how many accepted students must decline their offer for waitlist movement to occur (typically)? Thanks
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It begins when accepted students are compelled to give up other seats. That points to the CYMS protocols, so April usually. We do not want a mad scramble close to our orientation dates. CYMS Commit timelines should begin in June as some schools have super-early orientation start dates by Father's Day (June 21-ish). (It used to be that most schools don't start in earnest until after July 1-4 weekend, but apparently other medical schools want...
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Timelines for MD/PhD programs are different than MD programs. For example, our Commit to Enroll begins 21 days prior to enrollment (as per AAMC Traffic Guideline), which is agreed upon on June 1st. Our trainees do a research lab rotation. That means that our Commit to Enroll is May 11. Now, historically the number of MD/PhD acceptances is less than 30 after the second week of May out of a total of 2600 MD/PhD acceptances given to about 850 applicants.
 
Fencer said:
Timelines for MD/PhD programs are different than MD programs. For example, our Commit to Enroll begins 21 days prior to enrollment (as per AAMC Traffic Guideline), which is agreed upon on June 1st. Our trainees do a research lab rotation. That means that our Commit to Enroll is May 11. Now, historically the number of MD/PhD acceptances is less than 30 after the second week of May out of a total of 2600 MD/PhD acceptances given to about 850 applicants.
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Are schools allowed to have CTE deadline more than 21 days prior to enrollment?
 
Mr.Smile12 said:
I think the big unknown for most med applicants is financial aid. Certainly for MSTP's, the news about PhD admissions getting suspended and some funded labs getting shut down should make them worry.
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A significant percentage of MD only students are already taking 1-2 research years between M2 and M3 to improve their chances of matching into competitive specialties at top academic medical residencies and that percentage is trending up. Therefore, any adverse impact to research funding will also affect them, not only the MD/PhD students.
 
The reality is that the AAMC guidelines are unenforceable... They are recommendations after April 30. I have seen matriculations made on May 1st even when candidates were alternates for my school and wanted to remain as such (It is not uncommon for me to offer NEW AC during first week of May). Regardless, there is relatively good consensus in our community (MD/PhD) that programs can require 21 days prior to matriculation OR any time after May 15. After all, we are making financial commitments to you for the following 7-9 years of training, while trainees are trusting us to maintain that commitment to them.
 
Update as overnight sync (3/24-25/2025)
We now have 721 applicants with at least one MD/PhD acceptance with average cGPA of 3.87, average Science GPA of 3.83, and average MCAT of 516.7. So the wheels are moving but now very slowly as people are hording acceptances. By end of cycle, we should be close to 830-850 acceptances with an eventual class close to 730-750 matriculants.
 
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Any knowledge of which places have rescinded MD/PhD acceptances due to the current administration? I know there's been a few, including UNC-Chapel Hill very recently, and other institutions are capping their cohort at less than intended at the start of the cycle; was wondering if the total number of spots available this year is less than in the past.
 
national mdphd stats 2019-2025.jpg
 
Some observations from the table above. I don't have total research hours. Please also keep in mind that the 2025 data is incomplete while the 2019-2024 is data at the end of the application cycle. While I do expect at least 30-50 additional applicants receiving their first MD/PhD acceptance, it is clear that there is a modest decrease around 5% in the number of training slots (comparing to some historical prior data as of May 1). The overall acceptance rate is at least as good as it is for MD applicants, currently about 37.5%, and likely will raise to around 40%.
 
Fencer said:
Some observations from the table above. I don't have total research hours. Please also keep in mind that the 2025 data is incomplete while the 2019-2024 is data at the end of the application cycle. While I do expect at least 30-50 additional applicants receiving their first MD/PhD acceptance, it is clear that there is a modest decrease around 5% in the number of training slots (comparing to some historical prior data as of May 1). The overall acceptance rate is at least as good as it is for MD applicants, currently about 37.5%, and likely will raise to around 40%.
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Matriculant MCAT average is 516.4 but Accepted MCAT average is 517.6. Does it mean that the highest stat applicants are taking longer to decide where to matriculate (highly unlikely because applicants must select "Plan to Enroll" or "Commit to Enroll" in the CYMS tool by April 30) or does the accepted group include those that got the A which was later rescinded (example NYU)? Unlikely to also be the latter because even in 2024 and earlier, the matriculant avg is lower than accepted avg. Only explanation is that some accepted students with high stats are choosing to not matriculate into an MD/PhD program. Am I missing something?
 
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I apologize... for 2025, there are NO matriculants as of yet, but the data is projected based upon those who have kept their Acceptance to MD/PhD. Those applicants who have elected to Withdraw After MD/PhD Acceptance (WA) with higher stats might be electing to take an MD-only Acceptance. In the past, it happened to me that an applicant WA to take a Harvard MD-only Acceptance. Today, we went up from 722 to 727 who are currently holding their MD/PhD acceptance with the overall group of applicants who have received at least one MD/PhD acceptance raised from 750 to 766. I contributed to that raise by giving the first MD/PhD AC to an applicant.

Regarding your comment about NYU and others, please note that this has been happening for the past 7 years (and beyond). It doesn't relate to the current environment, but to selections made by those high benchmark individuals who might be receiving substantial financial aid packages making their calculation different too.
 
Overnight, we went up to 791 applicants with at least one MD/PhD acceptance, while 749 applicants are holding at least one MD/PhD acceptance, with an increase of only 3 additional applicants in both columns over the last day. Most of the increase happened as schools adjust to applicant withdrawals due to reduction to a single acceptance.
 
Fencer said:
Overnight, we went up to 791 applicants with at least one MD/PhD acceptance, while 749 applicants are holding at least one MD/PhD acceptance, with an increase of only 3 additional applicants in both columns over the last day. Most of the increase happened as schools adjust to applicant withdrawals due to reduction to a single acceptance.
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Is there any type of program (tier, MSTP or not, etc.) that’s contributing more to the WL movement than others? All I’ve been hearing from programs is that they’re planning to take a smaller class and likely no one off the WL.
 
All program tiers contribute to this movement. It all begins at the most competitive tier. An applicant decided between two top 5 or 10 programs, the other program offers a spot from their alternate list to another MSTP applicant who is in "plan-to-enroll" to a top 30 program (but alternate to a top 10 program), and that withdrawal then opens a slot filled by another applicant who might be getting their first-MD/PhD AC (there might be 1-4 additional degrees of separation between the first and last event rather than just 2 steps affecting 3 applicants). Evidently in the past 8 days, we have had 41 applicants who received their first MD/PhD acceptance (5/1 - 750 vs 5/9 - 791). At this point, I expect that no more than 25 additional applicants to receive their first MD/PhD acceptance (i.e.: the process substantially slows down after May 10, as shown between May 9 and 10, there were only 3 new first acceptances).

Edit: actions on Friday May 9 reflected on May 10's report. Only 1 additional first acceptance. Please also keep in mind that some people who deferred from last year, and forgot to resubmit their single school application on-time, are added at the very end of cycle.
 
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@Fencer

A general question in addressing how to advise applicants given the current state of uncertainty about NIH funding and positions for MSTP. We have a thread going within the prehealth advising community about how to address applicant concerns. I don't think there is a reason to change general strategy for creating school lists (based on research focus, student support over longer time, and place to live for the next decade).

One advisor in this discussion asks:
I want to ask, again, whether any MD/PhD program directors might be able to chime in. Specifically, I'm curious whether we know, on the national landscape, if there are a certain number of MD/PhD spots that are just 'lost' in comparison to last year/prior years? Not asking for any of us to predict the future, but truly right now, are we still looking at the same number of spots as in the past, or no?

I'm sure there's information we are all waiting on before we have an answer, so maybe it's best to know what we are waiting for to finally determine the answer to the question.
 
For the 2024 matriculation cycle, the AAMC Facts table B-8 indicates 740 matriculants as first-year. Table B-12 indicates 765. The final admission actions report for 2024 (closed cycle) indicated 781 matriculants while 860 applicants received at least one MD/PhD acceptance out of the 1,856 MD/PhD applicants. Why they are different numbers? The most common reason is related to SOM Registrars not reporting properly in the AAMC Students Record System the student's MD/PhD status. This is part of the matriculation process.

Move-on to 2025, the AAMC Fact tables will be released around December 2025. The only data available is the admission actions report, so I will compare apples to apples. The current admission actions report (open cycle) for 2025 matriculation class entering their first-year of training shows 754 currently accepted with 800 applicants having received at least one MD/PhD acceptance out of 2,007 MD/PhD applicants. So, if we were to assume that this was the end of the cycle, for 2025, it looks like just a 3.4% decrease (vs 2024) in the total number of MD/PhD slots, or less as the cycle still is open. We also need to see how many trainees actually matriculate. The only large MSTP that was reported to not take new students in 2025 was NYU (took 13 first-year trainees in 2024), which means that the other 14 slots potentially not being offered this year are spread out over >100 other MD/PhD programs. This is within variation seen every year. The other issue is why we only needed 800 applicants to fill a class of 754, as compared to 860 applicants filling a class of 781. There are several factors that might be at play. Here are a few thoughts:
  1. There is a decrease of regular PhD opportunities (some science news outlets indicate ~ 25% less positions); that decrease might have impacted some well rounded applicants with a MD/PhD acceptance to stay MD/PhD rather than pursuing just PhD (this is a small group).
  2. Some prestigious medical schools with a MD only offer (maybe a promise to transfer in a later time) who some MD/PhD applicants with high numbers might have chosen in a regular cycle could have decreased the financial aid packages because margins are needed to shore the loss of research indirect costs. That left some of those candidates in mid-tier MD-PhD programs.
  3. Unfounded mass hysteria, programs and applicants behaved more conservatively this year due to financially difficult times.
 
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Fencer said:
For the 2024 matriculation cycle, the AAMC Facts table B-8 indicates 740 matriculants as first-year. Table B-12 indicates 765. The final admission actions report for 2024 (closed cycle) indicated 781 matriculants while 860 applicants received at least one MD/PhD acceptance out of the 1,856 MD/PhD applicants. Why they are different numbers? The most common reason is related to SOM Registrars not reporting properly in the AAMC Students Record System the student's MD/PhD status. This is part of the matriculation process.

Move-on to 2025, the AAMC Fact tables will be released around December 2025. The only data available is the admission actions report, so I will compare apples to apples. The current admission actions report (open cycle) for 2025 matriculation class entering their first-year of training shows 754 currently accepted with 800 applicants having received at least one MD/PhD acceptance out of 2,007 MD/PhD applicants. So, if we were to assume that this was the end of the cycle, for 2025, it looks like just a 3.4% decrease (vs 2024) in the total number of MD/PhD slots, or less as the cycle still is open. We also need to see how many trainees actually matriculate. The only large MSTP that was reported to not take new students in 2025 was NYU (took 13 first-year trainees in 2024), which means that the other 14 slots potentially not being offered this year are spread out over >100 other MD/PhD programs. This is within variation seen every year. The other issue is why we only needed 800 applicants to fill a class of 754, as compared to 860 applicants filling a class of 781. There are several factors that might be at play. Here are a few thoughts:
  1. There is a decrease of regular PhD opportunities (some science news outlets indicate ~ 25% less positions); that decrease might have impacted some well rounded applicants with a MD/PhD acceptance to stay MD/PhD rather than pursuing just PhD (this is a small group).
  2. Some prestigious medical schools with a MD only offer (maybe a promise to transfer in a later time) who some MD/PhD applicants with high numbers might have chosen in a regular cycle could have decreased the financial aid packages because margins are needed to shore the loss of research indirect costs. That left some of those candidates in mid-tier MD-PhD programs.
  3. Unfounded mass hysteria, programs and applicants behaved more conservatively this year due to financially difficult times.
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Point #2 seems to be a major factor. Loss of research indirect costs is already affecting research year (RY) opportunities that many MD- only students avail of between M2 and M3.

As the news of adverse impacts to RY spreads, more applicants in future cycles will choose the MD/PhD programs and the gap between number of accepted applicants and class size will shrink further.

There is anecdotal evidence that some good Tier 2 MSTP programs (I assume that’s who you are referring to as mid-tier) have bigger class sizes this year than prior cycles. Hence, the loss of spots at other MD-PhD programs, especially Tier 1, may be higher than 14?
 
Update as of last night sync (5/27/2025 am)

2025 MDPhD
n​
MCAT​
cGPA​
Science GPA​
Matriculated
0​
-​
-​
-​
Current AC
757​
516.0​
3.85​
3.81​
Accepted
805​
517.5​
3.88​
3.85​
Applicants
2,007​
512.5​
3.74​
3.68​
 
Update as of last night syn (6/20/2025 am)
2025 MD/PhD Class​
n​
Total
MCAT​
UG
cGPA​
UG
Science
GPA​
Total Applicants
2008​
512.5​
3.74​
3.68​
Total Accepted
810​
517.5​
3.88​
3.85​
Current AC/EM/MA
752​
516.1​
3.85​
3.81​
EM = early matriculation - currently 19
MA = matriculated - currently 58
10 people deferred to future cycle
the late applicant is likely a person that deferred in a prior year with late addition to the applicant pool.
 
Essentially, these are the final numbers for the 2025 cycle.

NumberTotal MCATTotal GPA Avg.Science GPA Avg.
MD/PhD Matriculated (MA)755516.03.853.81
At least 1 MD/PhD Acceptance Total819517.53.883.85
MD/PhD Applicant Total2009512.63.743.68
 
Have you received sufficient number of invitations to MD/PhD interviews?
It is time to reassess when you still have a reasonable opportunity in the 2026 application cycle. If you are not satisfied with the number of invitations to MD/PhD interviews, consider applying to 5-10 more schools. In general, you need 5 MD/PhD interviews to potentially generate ~2 MD/PhD acceptances (unless you repeat the same mistake at each interview). However, choose wisely...

Consider MSTPs that are less crowded with applications (based upon AAMC Table B-8 - make ratios of applicants per matriculant) AND those who are having Interviews in January (so there is space for an invitation). Check out the national Google MD/PhD calendar. Here is the MSTP list (please note that the list includes 3 DVM/PhD programs, 1 DO/PhD program, and 54 MD/PhD programs). Remember than programs will need to review your application, and if complete, the process might still take 3-4 weeks to be placed into the eligible pool for invitations to interview.

My MSTP has only extended invitations to interview for only ~45% of our interview slots, but in two weeks, we will be at 60%. Every month (until late Dec.), we select a dozen applicants for invitation to interview. We also don't have a $econdary application. Some programs are already 2/3 done (or higher) with interview slot selection. Selection is 4-6 weeks prior to interviews, this is why you need to consult the calendar.... PM me if needed.
 
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It is now the end of September. The majority of the MD/PhD application deadlines range from October 1 to December 1 with a tendency for earlier. This is the last time to react in the 2026 application cycle for a reasonable opportunity if you are not content with the number of invitations to MD/PhD interviews.

If you are not satisfied with the number of invitations to MD/PhD interviews, consider applying to 5-10 more schools. In general, you need 5 MD/PhD interviews to potentially generate ~2 MD/PhD acceptances (unless you repeat the same mistake at each interview). However, choose wisely... As of today, we are 5% up in the number of MD/PhD applicants for the 2026 cycle at about 1900 applications. While the 2025 cycle, only had a 4% decrease in the number of final matriculation slots, it truly was due to one MSTP closing its doors and one not getting their grant renew in-time and rescinding acceptances for one-year. This latter program has now received NIH T32 funding. However, the uncertainty of indirect costs is making ~40% of the MD/PhD leadership to consider offering less acceptances in 2026. How many fewer positions? We do not know.

Consider MSTPs that are less crowded with applications (based upon AAMC Table B-8 - make ratios of applicants per matriculant) AND those who are having Interviews in January (so there is space for an invitation). Check out the national Google MD/PhD calendar. Here is the MSTP list (please note that the list includes 3 DVM/PhD programs, 1 DO/PhD program, and 54 MD/PhD programs). Remember than programs will need to review your application, and if complete, the process might still take 3-4 weeks to be placed into the eligible pool for invitations to interview.

My MSTP has only extended invitations to interview already to 60% of our interview slots. Every month (until late Dec.), we select a dozen applicants for invitation to interview. We also don't have a $econdary application. Some programs are already 3/4 done (or done) with interview slot selection. Selection is 4-6 weeks prior to interviews, this is why you need to consult the calendar.... PM me if needed.
 
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Last call for expanding school applications. Most MD/PhD deadlines for applications sunset by Nov. 1 and a few Nov. 15. We are one of the few programs that haven't selected interviewees for 2 dates in January (that is about for ~30% of interviewee spots). If you apply now, you still have to undergo review, which takes 2 weeks. Many programs have already completed their selections. Check the national Google MD/PhD calendar for programs that are still interviewing deep in January and/or Feb.
 
Hello Fencer! I was wondering if there are any new updates on the cycle, and if you have any additional advice for applicants that could help their applications post-interview?
 
Most programs allow you one-page/email update. Point out your fit to the institution, in particular to 3-5 currently funded investigators who are supervising MD/PhD students.

2026 MD/PhD Application Cycle (as of 12.16.2025)
Applicants - 2,075 (3% higher than 2025)
Mean cGPA - 3.71
Mean Sc GPA - 3.64
Mean Highest MCAT - 511
Mean Average MCAT - 509 (multiple takings)

Applicants w at least 1 MD/PhD AC:
Applicants - 238
Mean cGPA - 3.90
Mean Sc GPA - 3.88
Mean MCAT - 517.5

December is one of the two peaks for MD/PhD admissions. The most admissions are given in February, the 3rd highest month is March. In the last 4 days (since Friday), there were 37 applicants who received their first MD/PhD acceptance. You could see some activity in the SDN AC thread.
 
2026 MD/PhD Application Cycle (as of 02.09.2026)
Applicants - 2,074 (3% higher than 2025)
Mean cGPA - 3.71
Mean Sc GPA - 3.63
Mean Highest MCAT - 511
Mean Average MCAT - 509 (multiple takings)

Applicants w at least 1 MD/PhD AC:
Applicants - 500
Mean cGPA - 3.88
Mean Sc GPA - 3.85
Mean MCAT - 516.8

Compared to prior cycles, we are on-track for an average year in the 2026 matriculation cycle for about 810-840 applicants with at least 1 MD/PhD Acceptance and a matriculation class of 730-760 first-year trainees. Despite of all of the national research infrastructure challenges, in 2025, our national MD/PhD class had 819 applicants with at least 1 MD/PhD Acceptance and we matriculated 753 first-year MD/PhD trainees. In contrast, surveys of graduate schools reported an about 30% decline in PhD new-student matriculation rates. Over one night, the number of applicants with at least one MD/PhD acceptance went up to 515.
 
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