Herd Immunity and Belgium

[GeneralVeers]

My county shares contact tracing results and I've heard very similar results too. A weekend BBQ, family gathering, etc. Often no more than 5-10 people. And once it gets into a family house, everyone seems to get it within a few weeks.

I was being sarcastic about the efficacy of universal masking. Your anecdote fits what we are seeing. Often whole families get sick then Grandma comes in with hypoxia.

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[AMEHigh]

Once again you are ascribing thoughts and actions to me that aren't in evidence.

Well you said "what we do in our private lives is different" and you said that you got covid because it was a combination of work, not masking and not social distancing.

No one is advocating that one needs to wear a mask in their private lives at home, so you made it very unclear about which settings you were talking about in regards to not wearing a mask.

Maybe you haven't lost close family members, friends or patients, but I have so I don't really find the sarcasm funny and try to get the message across clearly on here, with my pateitns and with my friends/family that we should take things seriously by following public health guidelines of masking, social distancing and washing hands. Or maybe you have lost people close to you and you still think sarcasm and not doing those things is ok. Who knows. I'm just going by what it seems like you said in this thread about not following those recommendations and pointing out that cases are going up even though more people are supposedly masking.

 

[GeneralVeers]

Well you said "what we do in our private lives is different" and you said that you got covid because it was a combination of work, not masking and not social distancing.

No one is advocating that one needs to wear a mask in their private lives at home, so you made it very unclear about which settings you were talking about in regards to not wearing a mask.

Maybe you haven't lost close family members, friends or patients, but I have so I don't really find the sarcasm funny and try to get the message across clearly on here, with my pateitns and with my friends/family that we should take things seriously by following public health guidelines of masking, social distancing and washing hands. Or maybe you have lost people close to you and you still think sarcasm and not doing those things is ok. Who knows. I'm just going by what it seems like you said in this thread about not following those recommendations and pointing out that cases are going up even though more people are supposedly masking.

This should be taken seriously, but not the the level where we destroy our society and human interaction. The fact that so many families are getting it now means that most people are done.....it's over. All the masking/social-distancing/handwashing in the world isn't going to stop things. Masks and social distancing have been an utter failure as evidenced by the massive increase in new infections. At some level we have to accept risk, be humans and live our lives.

 

[AMEHigh]

This should be taken seriously, but not the the level where we destroy our society and human interaction. The fact that so many families are getting it now means that most people are done.....it's over. All the masking/social-distancing/handwashing in the world isn't going to stop things. Masks and social distancing have been an utter failure as evidenced by the massive increase in new infections. At some level we have to accept risk, be humans and live our lives.

Well it seems like most of the rest of the world has figured out ways to not let so many people die and let a new virus spread with abandon while supporting it's population through economic packages and other strategies. It's crazy that the US just gave up from the beginning and still continues to essentially give up while those most vulnerable like the grocery worker that makes $8 an hour has to deal with mask deniers.

People will be ok if they don't hold their 200 person wedding this year.

Only one of many stories, but I remember a bus driver complaining that no one wanted to wear masks and were coughing all over him and then he died from covid shortly after. There's no reason that americans needed to be straight up Aholes with no disregard for others while the federal government simultaneously hasn't done much to help states and businesses. It seems like we're headed toward herd immunity with the potential for hundreds of thousands of more people to die and become severly ill, but thankfully hopefully a vaccine will help lessen the destruction.

I really hope the public health messaging surrounding the vaccine is much better than it has been surrounding the virus so far. It'll definitely be interesting to see how governors of states who have downplayed the virus handle the messaging about getting vaccinated. Hopefully they take it seriously and recommend vaccination as all the data so far points to the vaccines being safe and somewhat effective, at least temporarily.

 

[VA Hopeful Dr]

...same as what I said. In other words, it was rushed through, expedited, prioritized. However you want to say it. Not sure what your point is.

Rushed has a negative connotation. If you didn't mean it that way, than I misunderstood and you have my apologies.

 

[GeneralVeers]

Well it seems like most of the rest of the world has figured out ways to not let so many people die and let a new virus spread with abandon while supporting it's population through economic packages and other strategies. It's crazy that the US just gave up from the beginning and still continues to essentially give up while those most vulnerable like the grocery worker that makes $8 an hour has to deal with mask deniers.

People will be ok if they don't hold their 200 person wedding this year.

Only one of many stories, but I remember a bus driver complaining that no one wanted to wear masks and were coughing all over him and then he died from covid shortly after. There's no reason that americans needed to be straight up Aholes with no disregard for others while the federal government simultaneously hasn't done much to help states and businesses. It seems like we're headed toward herd immunity with the potential for hundreds of thousands of more people to die and become severly ill, but thankfully hopefully a vaccine will help lessen the destruction.

I really hope the public health messaging surrounding the vaccine is much better than it has been surrounding the virus so far. It'll definitely be interesting to see how governors of states who have downplayed the virus handle the messaging about getting vaccinated. Hopefully they take it seriously and recommend vaccination as all the data so far points to the vaccines being safe and somewhat effective, at least temporarily.

I've heard this same nonsense over and over. We are middle of the pack as far as death rate compared to Europe. Anecdotes not supported by facts.

 

[maxxor]

Rushed has a negative connotation. If you didn't mean it that way, than I misunderstood and you have my apologies.

Perhaps expedited is better.

 

[AMEHigh]

I've heard this same nonsense over and over. We are middle of the pack as far as death rate compared to Europe. Anecdotes not supported by facts.

We're not middle of the pack. The US has the 6th highest death rate per 100,000 in the world. 3 of the countries above us are in Europe. Europe is made up of over 40 countries, so how does that make the US the middle of the pack? It's not nonsense that there are A LOT more countries, including in Europe, Africa and Asia that have a much lower death rate per 100,000 than the US. I wasn't using anecdotes, I was using facts that I've seen. But if you have other data about the death rate per 100,000, I'd definitely be interested in seeing why the Johns Hopkins data and other data I've seen is so different from what you have. People getting sick and dying definitely isn't good for the economy or people's mental health.

Mortality Analyses - Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center

How does mortality differ across countries? Examining the number of deaths per confirmed case and per 100,000 population. A global comparison.

coronavirus.jhu.edu

 

[AMEHigh]

You mean how rich countries (and their companies) decided to put money behind this all for the good of mankind. Oh wait, another good example of how pharmaceutical companies stand to make billions of dollars while health care remains not equitable around the world.

How Rich Countries Are ‘Hoarding’ The World’s Vaccines, In Charts

Oh yes agree with this. Should’ve worded my post differently. There’s absolutely a problem with equity.

I really hope the AstraZeneca vaccine continues to be promising and approved because that’s the one that’ll be more accessible worldwide since it’s less of a logistical storage nightmare and cheaper to make, so I hope there’s equity there. As the article states they’re sharing how it’s made with a company in India and hopefully a lot of its doses do go to lower income countries as is planned.

Many lower income countries have handled the pandemic well so I hope they get sufficient vaccine supply to continue doing well before the world becomes more global again.

 

[Rekt]

Do we think it’s simply luck of the draw how some young and healthy people do ok and others have long term symptoms or die? I’ve briefly seen headlines about something specific with some people’s immune system, but nothing concrete.

I just saw a young and healthy ED physician post his pic on cpap and said he cried to his nurse because he was so hypoxic he was scared.

I know most people on here say it’s no big deal because they’ll likely survive, which is true, but at the same time what is causing some healthy people to go down so hard? And why are kids still doing so well in general? I’m not walking around afraid, but I’m also following public health recs because I don’t want to get covid so I am just wondering if we’ll ever figure out if there is a scientific cause.

Are you actually seeing that many though? Possibly observation bias. Seeing one actually healthy young sick person can have a big impact on your thought process. Have to remember that your 200-700 whatever bed hospital covers 150k-1m etc population and that sick healthy person(s), is a miniscule number, essentially completely insignificant. I can count on 1 hand the amount of healthy young patients I've admitted with covid. Most that are somewhat young essentially 38-40s are obese with undiagnosed medical problems. The ones I've admitted younger have had super massive obesity or sadly a few trisomies/congenital disease. I say this as a single department that sees ~100k/yr where I'm admitting 5-7+ hypoxic covids a day myself not counting the other residents.

 

[AMEHigh]

Are you actually seeing that many though? Possibly observation bias. Seeing one actually healthy young sick person can have a big impact on your thought process. Have to remember that your 200-700 whatever bed hospital covers 150k-1m etc population and that sick healthy person(s), is a miniscule number, essentially completely insignificant. I can count on 1 hand the amount of healthy young patients I've admitted with covid. Most that are somewhat young essentially 38-40s are obese with undiagnosed medical problems. The ones I've admitted younger have had super massive obesity or sadly a few trisomies/congenital disease. I say this as a single department that sees ~100k/yr where I'm admitting 5-7+ hypoxic covids a day myself not counting the other residents.

No not seeing a lot die in my outpatient experience. But many with longer course of illness/continuing symptoms. Sorry if my post wasn’t clear, but that’s why I also said long term symptoms. Sometimes taste and smell not returning for months. Previously a runner, still feeling very short of breath walking 2 blocks. Ongoing headaches. People going back to hospital and having blood clot. Those kind of things. Maybe you all don’t notice them if you primarily work in ED, so not seeing the supposed mild cases. So the morbidity, not just the mortality.

So I wonder if it’s just luck of the draw or if there’s something underlying. Are a bunch of us walking around with coagulation disorders or autoimmune disorders or pulmonary disorders or something else that makes these people seem to not do as well.

But that’s why I personally don’t want to get COVID because right now it doesn’t seem we understand who is going to do well and who isn’t. Plus I think even though I workout and exercise (was supposed to do the Berlin marathon this year!), my BMI (which is a dumb measurement) is around 30, so I’m certainly considered obese so could have a poor outcome.

 

[AMEHigh]

For those that work in areas that haven’t had mask mandates or people protesting them, what have people said about getting vaccinated? I can’t imagine they’ll be interested in a vaccine.

Like I can’t imagine this FL politician is going to be encouraging his constituents to vaccinate.

 

[GeneralVeers]

We're not middle of the pack. The US has the 6th highest death rate per 100,000 in the world. 3 of the countries above us are in Europe. Europe is made up of over 40 countries, so how does that make the US the middle of the pack? It's not nonsense that there are A LOT more countries, including in Europe, Africa and Asia that have a much lower death rate per 100,000 than the US. I wasn't using anecdotes, I was using facts that I've seen. But if you have other data about the death rate per 100,000, I'd definitely be interested in seeing why the Johns Hopkins data and other data I've seen is so different from what you have. People getting sick and dying definitely isn't good for the economy or people's mental health.

Mortality Analyses - Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center

How does mortality differ across countries? Examining the number of deaths per confirmed case and per 100,000 population. A global comparison.

coronavirus.jhu.edu

Of major European countries Italy, UK, and Spain all have higher death rates. France is almost the same. Only Germany is lower.

 

[thegenius]

Well it seems like most of the rest of the world has figured out ways to not let so many people die and let a new virus spread with abandon while supporting it's population through economic packages and other strategies. It's crazy that the US just gave up from the beginning and still continues to essentially give up while those most vulnerable like the grocery worker that makes $8 an hour has to deal with mask deniers.

People will be ok if they don't hold their 200 person wedding this year.

Only one of many stories, but I remember a bus driver complaining that no one wanted to wear masks and were coughing all over him and then he died from covid shortly after. There's no reason that americans needed to be straight up Aholes with no disregard for others while the federal government simultaneously hasn't done much to help states and businesses. It seems like we're headed toward herd immunity with the potential for hundreds of thousands of more people to die and become severly ill, but thankfully hopefully a vaccine will help lessen the destruction.

Well said

 

[AMEHigh]

Of major European countries Italy, UK, and Spain all have higher death rates. France is almost the same. Only Germany is lower.

Ok but you keep changing the goal posts. You said that I was using anecdotes and not facts. But I'm literally using facts.

First I mentioned the whole world as doing better (obviously I didn't mean every single country, but yes the vast majority of countries) and then you said Europe and that we're in the middle of the pack of Europe. So then I mention no, there's over 40 countries in Europe and the US is doing worse than all but 3. So now you're saying once again no, I meant only "major" countries in Europe. So of course if you keep moving the goal posts, then what you said makes sense, but that is not based on the facts of looking at all the data we have available.

So yeah it seems like you're the one using anecdotes and trying to get the data to show that the US is doing better than other countries when indeed we're not. There are certainly mitigation efforts and economomic efforts that could've been put in place and continued that would've made things better then here. I'm not saying I excpet the US to have zero cases, but to just throw your arms up and say well there are a few other countries doing bad as well, so the US should just throw it's hands up and say oh well, is kind of crazy to me.

 

[southerndoc]

Are you actually seeing that many though? Possibly observation bias. Seeing one actually healthy young sick person can have a big impact on your thought process. Have to remember that your 200-700 whatever bed hospital covers 150k-1m etc population and that sick healthy person(s), is a miniscule number, essentially completely insignificant. I can count on 1 hand the amount of healthy young patients I've admitted with covid. Most that are somewhat young essentially 38-40s are obese with undiagnosed medical problems. The ones I've admitted younger have had super massive obesity or sadly a few trisomies/congenital disease. I say this as a single department that sees ~100k/yr where I'm admitting 5-7+ hypoxic covids a day myself not counting the other residents.

I admitted 3 today in their 30's with multifocal pneumonia/SARS with sats 82-87%. Not a single one had any health problems, but all were obese (>35 BMI) living sedentary lifestyles. Granted my ED sees 150,000 patients/year.

 

[BoardingDoc]

I admitted 3 today in their 30's with multifocal pneumonia/SARS with sats 82-87%. Not a single one had any health problems, but all were obese (>35 BMI) living sedentary lifestyles. Granted my ED sees 150,000 patients/year.

Similar. I work in a small community shop (maybe 1/5) the size of yours, but I'm admitting a <40 yo hypoxic covid patient maybe once a week for the past month. They are universally obese. I have only admitted one young guy in his mid 30s who was fit, but I honestly think that his problem was that he also had restricted chest movement from extra weight on his chest except his weight came from the fact that he had a VERY muscular chest.

 

[southerndoc]

Similar. I work in a small community shop (maybe 1/5) the size of yours, but I'm admitting a <40 yo hypoxic covid patient maybe once a week for the past month. They are universally obese. I have only admitted one young guy in his mid 30s who was fit, but I honestly think that his problem was that he also had restricted chest movement from extra weight on his chest except his weight came from the fact that he had a VERY muscular chest.

When the pandemic first started, we were intubating like crazy. Now we're using high-flow nasal cannulas, proning patients, etc. I haven't intubated a COVID-related hypoxemic patient in a while. (My resident was thrilled that we intubated 4 a few shifts ago with 3 CVL's; only 2 intubations yesterday both unrelated to COVID.)

Looking forward to my overnight shift... with it my birthday starting at midnight. Wonder what kind of birthday surprise will await me with the triage Gods.

 

[WilcoWorld]

When the pandemic first started, we were intubating like crazy. Now we're using high-flow nasal cannulas, proning patients, etc. I haven't intubated a COVID-related hypoxemic patient in a while. (My resident was thrilled that we intubated 4 a few shifts ago with 3 CVL's; only 2 intubations yesterday both unrelated to COVID.)

Looking forward to my overnight shift... with it my birthday starting at midnight. Wonder what kind of birthday surprise will await me with the triage Gods.

Hope that keeps you away from The Cheesecake Factory

 

[southerndoc]

Hope that keeps you away from The Cheesecake Factory

Maybe I'll try my luck and go all out with some scrambled eggs.

 

[WilcoWorld]

Maybe I'll try my luck and go all out with some scrambled eggs.

I mean, if you're already on your way to the ED...

 

[bravotwozero]

I admitted 3 today in their 30's with multifocal pneumonia/SARS with sats 82-87%. Not a single one had any health problems, but all were obese (>35 BMI) living sedentary lifestyles. Granted my ED sees 150,000 patients/year.

The flip side is that I have seen a good number of patients who were medical train wrecks get covid and make a full recovery...

 

[VA Hopeful Dr]

The flip side is that I have seen a good number of patients who were medical train wrecks get covid and make a full recovery...

I've had 2 COPD patient on home oxygen get COVID and not even need more than 1 additional liter of oxygen to get through it.

 

[thegenius]

I've had 2 COPD patient on home oxygen get COVID and not even need more than 1 additional liter of oxygen to get through it.

Yea it's a funny disease. We still know very little about it.

 

[AMEHigh]

Yea it's a funny disease. We still know very little about it.

Yep exactly.
That's why I'm trying to avoid it!
I'm not locked up in my house 24/7, but I'm not going to thanksgiving dinner with grandma and I'm not sitting in a salon for 2 hours getting my hair done without a mask on.
It'll be interesting to see what we find out 5+ years from now about covid.
Has there been data looking at smokers and covid and they're less likely to be hospitalized? Very interesting.
Is it all related to viral load?

 

[thegenius]

Yep exactly.
That's why I'm trying to avoid it!
I'm not locked up in my house 24/7, but I'm not going to thanksgiving dinner with grandma and I'm not sitting in a salon for 2 hours getting my hair done without a mask on.
It'll be interesting to see what we find out 5+ years from now about covid.
Has there been data looking at smokers and covid and they're less likely to be hospitalized? Very interesting.
Is it all related to viral load?

I dunno. I'm more scared of COVID than I am flu.

I tried to nullify a thanksgiving dinner at my house just with in-laws. My wife was kind of upset about it - not verbally so but tried to find a solution around it. So she asked can we all get tested prior. I felt "ehhhh fine." So we all got tested - 5 adults and 2 kids. The only one whose result didn't come back in time was grandma with metastatic cancer and the least healthiest of all. But the rest of us tested negative.

I'm not afraid of getting the flu. I've never seen anybody die from the flu except really old people or those with numerous co-morbidities.

I've seen and heard of a ton of healthy people die, or get seriously ill (ICU, maybe needing a ventilator) from COVID-19.

 

[VA Hopeful Dr]

I’ve previously coded a reportedly ‘healthy’ pediatric (non-infant) patient positive for flu that subsequently died. I admit it’s anecdotal, but thousands do die from the flu every year. Especially any time a new subtype comes along that people don’t have great prior immunity to such as H1N1 in 1918 and 2009, as well as H3N2 in 1968. I agree with you that most are of extremes of age or have lots of comorbidities, but some are reportedly ‘healthy’ just like what we are seeing with COVID-19.

For me personally, that's been the silver lining to covid, it appears to pretty much completely spare children. Especially when compared to flu.

 

[wamcp]

Oh yes agree with this. Should’ve worded my post differently. There’s absolutely a problem with equity.

I really hope the AstraZeneca vaccine continues to be promising and approved because that’s the one that’ll be more accessible worldwide since it’s less of a logistical storage nightmare and cheaper to make, so I hope there’s equity there. As the article states they’re sharing how it’s made with a company in India and hopefully a lot of its doses do go to lower income countries as is planned.

Many lower income countries have handled the pandemic well so I hope they get sufficient vaccine supply to continue doing well before the world becomes more global again.

Source on that? My impression is they absolutely have not...many with “low case counts” being countries that just don’t test

 

[wamcp]

Our country isn’t very healthy. I’m not sure the rest of the world has figured it out any better or worse. They just don’t have the extreme combination of poor diets and sedentary lifestyles that has infiltrated our country.

You must not work in the ED.

Not just unhealthy but extremely noncompliant.


A great example (https://www.ajkd.org/article/S0272-6386(18)30705-4/fulltext)

What is the percent of patients on hemodialysis who be non-compliant and miss at least ONE hemodialysis session in a four month period?

In italy?
0.8%.

What about in Japan, how many will miss a session in 4 month?
0.4%.

How about Spain?
2.4%.

Germany?
2.8%.

How about the United States of America?

What's your guess?

24%.

I'm not missing a decimal point. TWENTY FOUR PERCENT. Versus less than 3% for the above studied countries. American dialysis patients are one thousand times more likely to miss a dialysis session in a four month period than all the others.

Keep in mind the 1973 law allows all patients with end-stage renal disease to join Medicare, even if they’re younger than 65. So “lack of free healthcare” isn’t a justification for poor compliance

 

[AMEHigh]

Source on that? My impression is they absolutely have not...many with “low case counts” being countries that just don’t test

Here's just general info about Africa. That's the region I'm most familiar with as I have friends that live in a few African countries and I've lived and worked in some African countries.
I didn't meant to lump every country together on the whole continent. But in general there are countries that are doing decently.
Testing has definitely ramped up, although not perfect. Also, hospitals in general aren't overrun. Hospitalizations and deaths usually correspond with increasing cases, so while not a perfect measure, it does give some idea about how an area is doing in general. Things have gotten pretty dire in some US cities.

As US struggles, Africa's COVID-19 response is praised

JOHANNESBURG (AP) — At a lecture to peers this month, John Nkengasong showed images that once dogged Africa, with a magazine cover declaring it “The Hopeless Continent."

apnews.com

 

[wamcp]

Here's just general info about Africa. That's the region I'm most familiar with as I have friends that live in a few African countries and I've lived and worked in some African countries.
I didn't meant to lump every country together on the whole continent. But in general there are countries that are doing decently.
Testing has definitely ramped up, although not perfect. Also, hospitals in general aren't overrun. Hospitalizations and deaths usually correspond with increasing cases, so while not a perfect measure, it does give some idea about how an area is doing in general. Things have gotten pretty dire in some US cities.

As US struggles, Africa's COVID-19 response is praised

JOHANNESBURG (AP) — At a lecture to peers this month, John Nkengasong showed images that once dogged Africa, with a magazine cover declaring it “The Hopeless Continent."

apnews.com

Sorry but like I said my impression is it’s the lack of testing and it seems to be quite true on a quick search.

South africa is doing very badly, like many other poor countries.

Covid-19: Excess deaths point to hidden toll in South Africa as cases surge

South Africa seems close to the peak of its infection curve after an alarming month long surge in which the country of 59 million leapt from 18th to 5th in the world for total cases, which now stand at 459 761. In a continent where 37 of 54 countries still have fewer than 5000 cases, South...

www.bmj.com

i mean are you gonna believe north korea’s report of zero cases?

 

[AMEHigh]

Sorry but like I said my impression is it’s the lack of testing and it seems to be quite true on a quick search.

South africa is doing very badly, like many other poor countries.

Covid-19: Excess deaths point to hidden toll in South Africa as cases surge

South Africa seems close to the peak of its infection curve after an alarming month long surge in which the country of 59 million leapt from 18th to 5th in the world for total cases, which now stand at 459 761. In a continent where 37 of 54 countries still have fewer than 5000 cases, South...

www.bmj.com

i mean are you gonna believe north korea’s report of zero cases?

Yep South Africa isn’t doing well.
But again, my point was overall there are lower income countries that don’t have overwhelmed hospitals and morgues like the US does.
There are countries in the Caribbean, Asia, and South America that also don’t have overrun hospitals and morgues.

No I don’t believe info that’s coming out of N Korea. I didn’t mention every single country, it was a generalization, so no I have no clue what is going on with covid in N Korea. I don’t think there are any countries that compare to N Korea in regards to not providing truthful info on pretty much everything.

But it is an ever changing situation.
Australia hasn’t had cases for awhile but we’ll see how long that lasts.

Overall of course I don’t think the US could do things to achieve zero cases, but I do think that local and federal governments have failed us in public health messaging and basics that could’ve saved lives and morbidity.

 

[thegenius]

For me personally, that's been the silver lining to covid, it appears to pretty much completely spare children. Especially when compared to flu.

well we had those 200 kids in NYC that got screwed up from COVID in April and May. What happened to them?

 

[VA Hopeful Dr]

well we had those 200 kids in NYC that got screwed up from COVID in April and May. What happened to them?

Details?

 

[southerndoc]

Keep in mind the 1973 law allows all patients with end-stage renal disease to join Medicare, even if they’re younger than 65. So “lack of free healthcare” isn’t a justification for poor compliance

This only applies to US citizens. Undocumented immigrants do not qualify for Medicare.

 

[thegenius]

Details?

Yes I don't know the details. Did you hear about these kids in NYC? I think doctors invented a new disease called "multi-system inflammatory response syndrome" or something like that.

 

[GeneralVeers]

Yes I don't know the details. Did you hear about these kids in NYC? I think doctors invented a new disease called "multi-system inflammatory response syndrome" or something like that.

It was basically Kawasaki's, and a lot of the kids apparently didn't have even a link to COVID at the time but it was a media scare story.

 

[wamcp]

This only applies to US citizens. Undocumented immigrants do not qualify for Medicare.

And that’s the way it should be.

 

[VA Hopeful Dr]

Yes I don't know the details. Did you hear about these kids in NYC? I think doctors invented a new disease called "multi-system inflammatory response syndrome" or something like that.

Oh that.

You mean the COVID version of Kawasaki's that has a lower incidence than actual Kawasaki's?

 

[AMEHigh]

Sweden’s health care system is overwhelmed and a lot of health care workers are quitting

The vaccine is on the way, so our record number of cases and deaths is a horrific plan as our hospitals continue to be overwhelmed.

Herd immunity this way isn’t a great plan. People who don’t have Covid are getting sicker and dying because they can’t get the appropriate care due to hospitals being overrun.

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

 

[NicMouse64]

Sweden’s health care system is overwhelmed and a lot of health care workers are quitting

The vaccine is on the way, so our record number of cases and deaths is a horrific plan as our hospitals continue to be overwhelmed.

Herd immunity this way isn’t a great plan. People who don’t have Covid are getting sicker and dying because they can’t get the appropriate care due to hospitals being overrun.

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

there were a bunch of people touting Sweden as the model for herd immunity back in june. They are all strangely silent now.....

 

[GeneralVeers]

there were a bunch of people touting Sweden as the model for herd immunity back in june. They are all strangely silent now.....

I still think they did the right thing.

 

[NicMouse64]

I still think they did the right thing.

It seems like they don't even think they've done the right thing. They are asking for help from their neighbors. HCWs are leaving in record numbers as cases surge. Time will tell.

 

[AMEHigh]

It seems like they don't even think they've done the right thing. They are asking for help from their neighbors. HCWs are leaving in record numbers as cases surge. Time will tell.

Yeah from what I’ve seen from the few friends I have in Australia they’re overall ok with how things were handled. Financially the government supported people and businesses and now they’re pretty much living like normal with a vaccine coming.

Obviously hind sight is 20/20, but the federal government certainly could’ve supported us more and helped guide states on better public health messaging.

Now we have lots of businesses suffering because people are sick and dead and unprecedented numbers of hospitalizations and deaths that have unintended consequences on non-covid patients.

I was horrified to find out from a friend in the south that her sister was forced to go to work after having classic Covid symptoms such as coughing and loss of taste. Her boss told her she’d lose her job if she didn’t come in. It took her 3 days to get tested, her first test came back negative so then took another test 2 days later, that finally came back positive. All the while she went to work so she wouldn’t lose her job, thus exposing more people. Herd immunity is not the answer.

 

[GeneralVeers]

Australia was a very unique case. They had an extremely low number of initial cases and were able to contact trace. They also had the ability to shut down their borders completely, which we could not do. They have a huge number of non-immune people and are at risk for a massive outbreak. Let's hope the vaccine is effective and prevents this from happening.

Sweden is just panicking like all the US states are now. Government needs to resist the urge to "do something". Sometimes the best action is no action at all.

 

[southerndoc]

there were a bunch of people touting Sweden as the model for herd immunity back in june. They are all strangely silent now.....

I think Sweden underestimated the threshold proportion needed for herd immunity. Typically it's 70%. They thought that they would have 40% infection by just letting it play its course, but I believe only about 15% of their population has been infected.

I'm sure the infection rate will slow dramatically when 70% of the people have been infected. You're not going to get herd immunity with only 15% of the population infected though.

 

[southerndoc]

Do you have a source?

Some models have proposed that only about 11-14% of cases are reported.

Using those model’s estimates, Sweden’s number of confirmed cases (320,098 as of today) in their overall population of (10.23 million) suggests that they are probably around 19-25% of their population already infected.

Where as in the US for comparison, there are 16,687,864 confirmed cases as of today in a population of 328.2 million, suggesting somewhere around 102-135 million cases so far. This puts us at somewhere around 31-41% of our population already infected.

Herd Immunity and Implications for SARS-CoV-2 Control

This JAMA Insights Clinical Update discusses herd immunity in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic and explains the herd immunity threshold as a function of transmissibility (R0), the role of an effective vaccine and vaccination program in sustaining herd immunity, and the risks of an...

jamanetwork.com

Difficult to Determine Herd Immunity Threshold for COVID-19

Too many questions remain for researchers to reach definitive conclusions about herd immunity for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), according to a Government Accountability Office report.

jamanetwork.com

 

[RustedFox]

Edit: Sweden’s obesity rate is around 10%, while it’s around 36% in the US for what it’s worth.

What's even more bizarre about this phenomenon is that being a "Foodie" is now a thing to be respected, as if it were a skill set or proficiency.

Being an accomplished [guitar/flute/drums/whatever] player is a recognized skill.
So is being awesome at a sport or game [baseball, chess, martial arts, ballet].
Cognitive skills are also something to recognize [fluency in multiple languages, programming, mathematics, etc.].

- but now, just having an extensive history of stuffing your face is an accolade.

America, we need to have a talk.

 

[GeneralVeers]

With 300k deaths it should mean about 50% of the US population has been infected, or about 150 million people. We are hopefully nearly there and perhaps the vaccine will give us an additional boost to get over the line quicker.

 

[NicMouse64]

With 300k deaths it should mean about 50% of the US population has been infected, or about 150 million people. We are hopefully nearly there and perhaps the vaccine will give us an additional boost to get over the line quicker.

So test numbers are off by a factor of 7 from the number of confirmed positive test? I mean I get the idea based on numbers that were run at the beginning of the pandemic. This doesn't account for reinfections, and the factor of 7 is awfully optimistic. Sweden would be done if the factor were 7. 15*7=105. I bet the factor is closer to 2/2.5X the number of confirmed cases.