Here's the current status of AOA programs that have applied for ACGME accreditation (by specialty).

[Dr.Bruh]

Definitions: This is a direct quote from gamerEMdoc who is an Associated PD/EM Clerkship director.

• "- Continued Accreditation - these programs have achieved full ACGME accreditation and are accredited for the next 10 years
• - Initial Accreditation - these programs got a 3 year initial accreditation through the merger, and will have another site visit in the coming years to get full continued 10 year accreditation
• - Continued Pre-Accreditation - do not confuse with continued accreditation. These are programs that applied for ACGME accreditation, had a site visit, and got denied, and are still in the process of revamping their program to try to meet the accreditation criteria
• - Voluntary Withdrawal - These programs gave up and will not be seeking accreditation and will be closing their program"

So basically any program that is initial/continued accred is good to go for a DO (class of 2020/2021 at least) to match into and have ** next to them. But the Pre-accred programs are still "technically" in the running for making it. Only time will tell. I also included how many of the accredited programs have DO program directors just to give a rough idea of how many of these programs will likely still have strong DO bias post-merger.

Dermatology

• 26 programs applied
• 19 with initial/continued accred (17 DO PD's)**
• 7 Pre-accrediation

Anesthesiology

• 11 programs applied
• 10 with initial/continued accred (all DO PD's)**
• 1 withdrawal

Emergency Medicine

• 51 programs applied
• 44 with initial/continued accred (35 DO PD's)**
• 5 pre accred
• 2 withdrawal

Neurosurgery

• 8 applied
• 4 initial/continued accred (2 DO PD's)**
• 3 pre accred
• 1 withdrawal

Orthopedic Surgery

• 41 programs applied
• 20 initial/continued accred (15 DO PD's)**
• 21 pre accred

General Surgery

• 54 programs applied
• 36 initial/continued accred (20 DO PD's)**
• 15 pre accred
• 3 withdrawal

Urology

• 11 programs applied
• 9 initial/continued accred (7 DO PD's)**
• 2 pre accred

Ophthalmology

• 8 programs applied
• 4 initial/continued accred (2 DO PD's)**
• 4 pre accred

Otolaryngology

• 15 programs applied
• 10 initial/continued accred (9 DO PD's)**
• 4 pre accred
• 1 withdrawal

Psychiatry

• 15 programs applied
• 15 initial/continued accred (5 DO PD's)**

Diagnostic Radiology

• 10 programs applied
• 7 initial/continued accred (6 DO PD's)**
• 2 pre accred
• 1 withdrawal

Plastic Surgery

• 3 programs applied
• 1 initial accred**
• 2 pre accred

Neurology

• 9 programs applied
• 8 initial/continued accred (6 DO PD's)**
• 1 pre accred

Ob/Gyn

• 29 programs applied
• 25 initial/continued accred**

Internal Medicine

• 98 programs applied
• 95 initial/continued accred**

Family Medicine

• 131 programs applied
• 129 initial/continued accred**

Pediatrics

• 7 programs applied
• 7 initial/continued accred**

SOURCE: Used this website to see all AOA programs who applied for ACGME accreditation and their current status: ACGME - Accreditation Data System (ADS)

My opinion: Obviously primary care is going to be the same as its always been in terms of competitiveness for DOs. I'd also say EM, DR, Psych, Gas, Gen Surg are also going to see little change for DOs since most match well in the ACGME match already, and most of the AOA programs are converting. If you're a DO who wants something "hyper competitive" Derm, Ortho, Otolaryngology, urology are your best bets if you focus on former these AOA programs since there are a surprising total number of these programs that made the cut. Neurosurg, Plastics, Ophtho and any speciality that didn't have an AOA program (i.e. Rad onc, IR, Vascular surg) are going to be a long shot. Overall, better outlook than I initially expected.

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[Sardonix]

"This is a big f***ing deal!" --- Poet and warrior, Joe Biden.

But seriously, these numbers are way higher than the doom/gloom I've read.

 

[Dr.Bruh]

"This is a big f***ing deal!" --- Poet and warrior, Joe Biden.

But seriously, these numbers are way higher than the doom/gloom I've read.

I agree. The only “doom” that i see actually being true is for specialties like Nuerosurg, rad onc, ophtho. Bc there were so few DO programs to begin with and they’ve taken the biggest hit. Ortho, derm, ENT took a hit but to a much smaller degree. those top DO student who have been matching those specialties every year in the AOA will probably still match them. I have a very hard time seeing any drastic change in match rates for primary care, EM, gas, gen surg, rads

 

[2021Doctor]

If this is correct then I see a problem,
Total programs applying above = 26 + 11 + 51 + 8 + 41 + 54 + 11 + 8 + 15 + 15 + 10 + 3 + 9 + 29 + 98 +131 + 7 = 527 programs
Out of those 527 programs, 9 are listed as withdrawl and 58 preaccreditation.

Back in 2015 when this started there were 862 AOA residency programs -154 Dually accredited programs = 708 AOA only residency programs.
https://riverstonehealth.org/wp-con...-Pacific-Northwest-Regional-DIO-DME-Forum.pdf

So right now we have 527-9 withdrawn-58 preaccredited = 460 approved former AOA programs
So 460/708 or 65% have successfully made the conversion.
If all 58 preaccredited programs make it (unlikely), then we have 518/708 programs successfully making the conversion which is 73%.

Dr. Gevitz was criticised for saying "Based on current trends, it would not be at all surprising if 40% of all current AOA-only accredited internships, residencies, and fellowships do not achieve ACGME initial accreditation".
https://ip4pi.files.wordpress.com/2016/09/2016-third-report-on-single-accreditation.pdf

Based on this information, we are looking at a loss of 27-35% of residency programs, so Dr. Gevitz may not have been far off.

This article says there 3118 AOA first year GME spots in 2015 (would be nice to have a breakdown of how many were just rotating internships).
https://www.healthaffairs.org/do/10.1377/hblog20150501.047373/full/

So as I see it we are talking about a best case loss of roughly 3118 x .27 = 842 PGY 1 slots and a worst case loss of about 3118 x .35 = 1091 PGY 1 slots.
I would not celebrate a loss of 842 to 1091 PGY1 slots.

 

[CoomassieBlue57]

If this is correct then I see a problem,
Total programs applying above = 26 + 11 + 51 + 8 + 41 + 54 + 11 + 8 + 15 + 15 + 10 + 3 + 9 + 29 + 98 +131 + 7 = 527 programs
Out of those 527 programs, 9 are listed as withdrawl and 58 preaccreditation.

Back in 2015 when this started there were 862 AOA residency programs -154 Dually accredited programs = 708 AOA only residency programs.
https://riverstonehealth.org/wp-con...-Pacific-Northwest-Regional-DIO-DME-Forum.pdf

So right now we have 527-9 withdrawn-58 preaccredited = 460 approved former AOA programs
So 460/708 or 65% have successfully made the conversion.
If all 58 preaccredited programs make it (unlikely), then we have 518/708 programs successfully making the conversion which is 73%.

Dr. Gevitz was criticised for saying "Based on current trends, it would not be at all surprising if 40% of all current AOA-only accredited internships, residencies, and fellowships do not achieve ACGME initial accreditation".
https://ip4pi.files.wordpress.com/2016/09/2016-third-report-on-single-accreditation.pdf

Based on this information, we are looking at a loss of 27-35% of residency programs, so Dr. Gevitz may not have been far off.

This article says there 3118 AOA first year GME spots in 2015 (would be nice to have a breakdown of how many were just rotating internships).
https://www.healthaffairs.org/do/10.1377/hblog20150501.047373/full/

So as I see it we are talking about a best case loss of roughly 3118 x .27 = 842 PGY 1 slots and a worst case loss of about 3118 x .35 = 1091 PGY 1 slots.
I would not celebrate a loss of 842 to 1091 PGY1 slots.

A large number of those 27%-35% programs you are including never once had a resident in the several years they were offering a residency position, and never had any business to “successfully make the conversion”.

 

[Dr.Bruh]

If this is correct then I see a problem,
Total programs applying above = 26 + 11 + 51 + 8 + 41 + 54 + 11 + 8 + 15 + 15 + 10 + 3 + 9 + 29 + 98 +131 + 7 = 527 programs
Out of those 527 programs, 9 are listed as withdrawl and 58 preaccreditation.

Back in 2015 when this started there were 862 AOA residency programs -154 Dually accredited programs = 708 AOA only residency programs.
https://riverstonehealth.org/wp-con...-Pacific-Northwest-Regional-DIO-DME-Forum.pdf

So right now we have 527-9 withdrawn-58 preaccredited = 460 approved former AOA programs
So 460/708 or 65% have successfully made the conversion.
If all 58 preaccredited programs make it (unlikely), then we have 518/708 programs successfully making the conversion which is 73%.

Dr. Gevitz was criticised for saying "Based on current trends, it would not be at all surprising if 40% of all current AOA-only accredited internships, residencies, and fellowships do not achieve ACGME initial accreditation".
https://ip4pi.files.wordpress.com/2016/09/2016-third-report-on-single-accreditation.pdf

Based on this information, we are looking at a loss of 27-35% of residency programs, so Dr. Gevitz may not have been far off.

This article says there 3118 AOA first year GME spots in 2015 (would be nice to have a breakdown of how many were just rotating internships).
https://www.healthaffairs.org/do/10.1377/hblog20150501.047373/full/

So as I see it we are talking about a best case loss of roughly 3118 x .27 = 842 PGY 1 slots and a worst case loss of about 3118 x .35 = 1091 PGY 1 slots.
I would not celebrate a loss of 842 to 1091 PGY1 slots.

There is some vital information you’re not taking into account. One thing is that majority of the programs that didn’t even bother applying were programs that hadn’t taken residents in years or regularly go unfilled (many hundreds of them). So calling those "lost" spots is inappropriate because DO were not applying to them anyway.

Second, there are actually more PGY-1 spots than in 2015 in AOA programs bc the AOA focused much of their resources on expanding the number off seats in the programs they new would make the merger. I was able to meet the current and former President of the AOA and obviously I can’t prove this without meticuously going through each individual program but they presented data that showed a net increase in total PGY-1 spots compared to the previous AOA match (higher than the 3k number you calculated but I don’t remember exactly the number) .

Now I guess it’s possible that they just lied and presented data and graphs that were totally made up but I find it pretty unlikely. So based on these things there really isn't a "net" loss. You can definitely argue there are isolated losses (i.e. Neurosurg, Ortho, Plastics). Also you can estimate how many are TRIs. According to the link provided. 31/37 TRIs are accredited for ACGME so not a huge number by any means.

 

[AnatomyGrey12]

A number of ortho programs will likely still get it, as well as a few ENT. Predictions for ortho are that around 30 programs will get it.

GS started off terrible and now a lot of programs have made it, with the ones withdrawing being tiny programs, and some of the pre-accred ones still likely to ultimately get it.

 

[2021Doctor]

A large number of those 27%-35% programs you are including never once had a resident in the several years they were offering a residency position, and never had any business to “successfully make the conversion”.

Ok. This is patently false imo. Please prove your post that "A large number of those 27%-35% programs you are including never once had a resident in the several years".
Please link to some actual data that proves this large number and how large that number actually is.
I do not believe that large numbers of residency programs sat without residents for years.
The unfilled positions were mainly in the rotating internships, not residency programs.
You cannot run a residency program without residents,

Also, I do not understand why all the data can not be made easily available for everyone to see in one place instead of having to piecemeal it all together from various sites. Why is the information in the OP not publicly released on the AOA website? Why is this coming from gamerEMDoc and not from the AOA?

 

[2021Doctor]

Second, there are actually more PGY-1 spots than in 2015 in AOA programs bc the AOA focused much of their resources on expanding the number off seats in the programs they new would make the merger.

Please show evidence that the AOA used resources to greatly expand the number of resident seats in existing programs they knew would make the merger. Please show us all the 10 resident programs that became 20 resident programs or 20 resident programs that became 30 resident programs. You cannot just expand seats without funding. How many $$$ did the AOA spend to expand seats?

 

[Scrubs101]

3 of the original ortho programs have withdrawn, according to this article a fourth recently withdrew

Status of Residency Programs: Single Accreditation System Update

I have a hunch as to who it is, anybody know for sure though? I dont wanna go around spreading fake news lol.

 

[2021Doctor]

3 of the original ortho programs have withdrawn, according to this article a fourth recently withdrew

Status of Residency Programs: Single Accreditation System Update

I have a hunch as to who it is, anybody know for sure though? I dont wanna go around spreading fake news lol.

Good post and thanks for the link.
This stood out to me in the link:
"So far none of the orthopedic programs accredited by the ACGME have applied for Osteopathic Recognition. This designation is conferred by the ACGME’s Osteopathic Principles Committee upon ACMGE accredited programs that demonstrate, through a formal application process, the commitment to teaching and assessing osteopathic principles and practice at the graduate medical education level."
Also, you can tell us, who is that 4th program?

 

[Dr.Bruh]

Please show evidence that the AOA used resources to greatly expand the number of resident seats in existing programs they knew would make the merger. Please show us all the 10 resident programs that became 20 resident programs or 20 resident programs that became 30 resident programs. You cannot just expand seats without funding. How many $$$ did the AOA spend to expand seats?

Like I said this is just want the president of the AOA told my class when he came and talked to us. I know the AOA loves to spin stuff and BS us but I find it very unlikely they presented completely false data and would lie that blatantly as to give even a specific number of the total number of PGY1 spots. Not sure how funding works as it’s way over my head so I plead ignorance. Maybe the funding that went towards all the programs that closed felt reallocated to the programs that made it. Not sure

 

[hbslax4]

3 of the original ortho programs have withdrawn, according to this article a fourth recently withdrew

Status of Residency Programs: Single Accreditation System Update

I have a hunch as to who it is, anybody know for sure though? I dont wanna go around spreading fake news lol.

I know two that are for sure closing according to the AOA opportunities website: Des Peres in St. Louis and St. John Providence in Warren, MI. I have a pretty strong guess on the last one, as I don’t think they held interviews this year but I don’t want
to spread any false information.

 

[Dr.Bruh]

Good post and thanks for the link.
This stood out to me in the link:
"So far none of the orthopedic programs accredited by the ACGME have applied for Osteopathic Recognition. This designation is conferred by the ACGME’s Osteopathic Principles Committee upon ACMGE accredited programs that demonstrate, through a formal application process, the commitment to teaching and assessing osteopathic principles and practice at the graduate medical education level."
Also, you can tell us, who is that 4th program?

Yeah I’d be surprised if many more of those ortho programs made it. And yeah osteo recognition is a joke. But my schools home ortho program PD said they will have a 200 hr OMM requirement to be considered. A way of saying “thanks but no thanks to MD applicants” (his exact words). Hopefully other programs follow but who knows.

 

[DrStephenStrange]

So as I see it we are talking about a best case loss of roughly 3118 x .27 = 842 PGY 1 slots and a worst case loss of about 3118 x .35 = 1091 PGY 1 slots.
I would not celebrate a loss of 842 to 1091 PGY1 slots.

You can't just do the math like that because different residency programs had different amount of spots, and also as former AOA programs close, the ones that made the cut are also looking to open more spots than they previously had to make up for it and to meet ACGME's quota (from what I've heard).



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[AnatomyGrey12]

Yeah I’d be surprised if many more of those ortho programs made it.

Predictions are that around 30 will ultimately get it. I know ours will, and Doctors still doesn’t have it and they will get it. The PDs were at the AOAO conference and more than a few of the remaining programs are very close.

Remember that to get initial accreditation these programs have to be 100% compliant with ACGME regs, some of which are actually kinda tic-tacky, but once they get it then they only need like 70% compliance to keep it. Some programs and just crossing their last T’s and dotting the last I’s.

 

[studentdoct4281]

These numbers originally posted don’t look right first off. Second off I would be worried about the whole “second look” or “second visit” for most of these programs

 

[BorntobeDO?]

Like I said this is just want the president of the AOA told my class when he came and talked to us. I know the AOA loves to spin stuff and BS us but I find it very unlikely they presented completely false data and would lie that blatantly as to give even a specific number of the total number of PGY1 spots. Not sure how funding works as it’s way over my head so I plead ignorance. Maybe the funding that went towards all the programs that closed felt reallocated to the programs that made it. Not sure

Seriously, something the president of the AOA said was your source? Did he tell you cranial is proven too? That isnt a reliable source at all.

 

[AnatomyGrey12]

Second off I would be worried about the whole “second look” or “second visit” for most of these programs

You would be wrong. To get "initial accreditation" programs need to have 100% compliance. To get the "continued accreditation" programs only need 70% compliance (been told this by multiple PDs and residents currently in the process). Once you get it, it is hard to lose it.

 

[2021Doctor]

How many of the AOA bigshots

You can't just do the math like that because different residency programs had different amount of spots, and also as former AOA programs close the ones that made the cut are also looking to open more spots than they previously had to make up for it and to meet ACGME's quota (from what I've heard).
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Imo this is all talk with no evidence. Again, please show us all the 10 resident programs that became 20 resident programs or 20 resident programs that became 30 resident programs.
What has the AOA or NBOME done recently to make life better for the average DO student?
Does the ACGME merger make life better for the average DO student that is trying to get a residency spot?
Does expanding COMLEX Level 3 from a one day test to a two day test make life better for the average DO student?
Does failing hundreds of DO students on the COMLEX Level 2 PE based on a "humanistic domain" make life better for the average DO student that is trying to get a residency spot?

 

[Scrubs101]

How many of the AOA bigshots


Imo this is all talk with no evidence. Again, please show us all the 10 resident programs that became 20 resident programs or 20 resident programs that became 30 resident programs.
What has the AOA or NBOME done recently to make life better for the average DO student?
Does the ACGME merger make life better for the average DO student that is trying to get a residency spot?
Does expanding COMLEX Level 3 from a one day test to a two day test make life better for the average DO student?
Does failing hundreds of DO students on the COMLEX Level 2 PE based on a "humanistic domain" make life better for the average DO student that is trying to get a residency spot?

I think i know of one residency that expanded significantly, detroit sinai grace IM went from 12->72. But after looking into this it was just an aoa program absorbed into an already existing acgme program through wayne state with 60 spots. I've seen a few mostly IM and FM ones that went from like for example 12-15 spots. But a good portion of the sub-specialties ive seen all went down by 1/yr or so like dmcs ent program. examples at the bottom of this page SCS Programs - Statewide Campus System

 

[2021Doctor]

I think i know of one residency that expanded significantly, detroit sinai grace IM went from 12->72. But after looking into this it was just an aoa program absorbed into an already existing acgme program through wayne state with 60 spots. I've seen a few mostly IM and FM ones that went from like for example 12-15 spots. But a good portion of the sub-specialties ive seen all went down by 1/yr or so like dmcs ent program. examples at the bottom of this page SCS Programs - Statewide Campus System

Great post.
As you said, having a 12 spot AOA program get absorbed into an existing 60 slot ACGME program does nothing to expand the total pool of slots.

 

[Cuongoff]

We're interviewing derm applicants now and our PD has not explicitly stated a ratio for DOs and MDs. In terms of applicants it's been half DOs and half MDs. Idk how strong of a bias we're going to have. Of course I'm pushing for DOs but everyone who got an interview gets judged pretty evenly so who knows. Honestly surprised there's even 26 derm programs. I thought it was only 18

 

[DrStephenStrange]

How many of the AOA bigshots


Imo this is all talk with no evidence. Again, please show us all the 10 resident programs that became 20 resident programs or 20 resident programs that became 30 resident programs.
What has the AOA or NBOME done recently to make life better for the average DO student?
Does the ACGME merger make life better for the average DO student that is trying to get a residency spot?
Does expanding COMLEX Level 3 from a one day test to a two day test make life better for the average DO student?
Does failing hundreds of DO students on the COMLEX Level 2 PE based on a "humanistic domain" make life better for the average DO student that is trying to get a residency spot?

Whether the second part of my comment is true or not, your math is still wrong. 35% of AOA residencies closing doesn't equal 35% of spots closing. Some residency programs had just 1 or 2 spots while others had dozens of spots. Most of the ones closing were in the low range in amount of spots.

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[Dr.Bruh]

Seriously, something the president of the AOA said was your source? Did he tell you cranial is proven too? That isnt a reliable source at all.

No lol. The source is literally the AOA. The came to my school probably others I assumed and showed us data.

 

[2021Doctor]

Whether the second part of my comment is true or not, your math is still wrong. 35% of AOA residencies closing doesn't equal 35% of spots closing. Some residency programs had just 1 or 2 spots while others had dozens of spots. Most of the ones closing were in the low range in amount of spots.

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Again show us the data to prove this.
Tell me how this is good for DO students. Two out of the three first years spots in the Broward Ortho Program went to MDs.
https://gme.browardhealth.org/pages/residents?program=Orthopaedic Surgery

 

[DrStephenStrange]

Again show us the data to prove this.
Tell me how this is good for DO students. Two out of the three first years spots in the Broward Ortho Program went to MDs.
https://gme.browardhealth.org/pages/residents?program=Orthopaedic Surgery

Haha I wasn't arguing that it was a good thing for DOs. I'm not delusional lol. I was arguing that your math was wrong, and the percentage of spots closing will end up being less than the percentage of programs closing.

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[2021Doctor]

Haha I wasn't arguing that it was a good thing for DOs. I'm not delusional lol. I was arguing that your math was wrong, and the percentage of spots closing will end up being less then the percentage of programs closing.

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There should not be any need at all for my "math". Imo the true unfiltered data (not selective data) should be published for all to see.

 

[DrStephenStrange]

There should not be any need at all for my "math". Imo the true unfiltered data (not selective data) should be published for all to see.

And I agree with that.

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[AnatomyGrey12]

Again show us the data to prove this.
Tell me how this is good for DO students. Two out of the three first years spots in the Broward Ortho Program went to MDs.
https://gme.browardhealth.org/pages/residents?program=Orthopaedic Surgery

One of them did research with them for 2 years, and the other is an IMG whose dad is an attending in the program....

 

[BorntobeDO?]

One of them did research with them for 2 years, and the other is an IMG whose dad is an attending in the program....

Seeing how many former AOA had lots of MD's on staff, its no surprise this stuff happens as soon as its able too.

 

[Dr. Foresight]

Predictions are that around 30 will ultimately get it. I know ours will, and Doctors still doesn’t have it and they will get it. The PDs were at the AOAO conference and more than a few of the remaining programs are very close.

Remember that to get initial accreditation these programs have to be 100% compliant with ACGME regs, some of which are actually kinda tic-tacky, but once they get it then they only need like 70% compliance to keep it. Some programs and just crossing their last T’s and dotting the last I’s.

I understand if you don't want to get too specific, but what have you heard about the Olympia fields, IL program?

 

[hallowmann]

Again show us the data to prove this.
Tell me how this is good for DO students. Two out of the three first years spots in the Broward Ortho Program went to MDs.
https://gme.browardhealth.org/pages/residents?program=Orthopaedic Surgery

Alright so this was bothering me, so I ran numbers using the NATMATCH 2015 data, studies involving average number of AOA-only (as compared to dual-accredited) FM programs, and there some inherent flaws with other estimates. First off, as others have pointed out, programs that typically have larger numbers of spots (primary care programs) are more likely to have transitioned, whereas programs with less spots (specialties, especially surgical specialties) are less likely to make the transition. Second off, total numbers from that report you mentioned (which I actually believe are not entirely accurate) ignored the fact that some specialties were not listed in the OP, the largest of which were TRI programs. Third, there had always been spots that hadn't filled for years prior to 2015 (100-150 spots that were primarily TRI spots - ~5% of all PGY1 AOA spots at the time), and it doesn't make sense to include these, because its never really expected that such programs would transition - they weren't recruiting aggressively and were essentially closed (many people attempted to contact such programs and they would just never reply).

Anyway, when I ran the numbers, this is what I got:

-Of the categorical programs (non-advanced or TRIs) in 2015 there were a total of ~530 AOA-only programs with ~2131 spots. Of these 483 have applied, 381 have received accreditation, 80 are pre-accredited, and 19 have withdrawn (most are still technically "pre-accredited"). This correlated to ~1570.4 spots (~74% of the spots)
-Of the advanced programs in 2015 there were a total of ~69 AOA programs with ~140 spots. Of these 71 programs (yes this includes some new programs since 2015) have applied, 48 have received accreditation, 22 are pre-accredited, and 1 has withdrawn. This correlated to ~94.9 spots (~68% of the spots)
-Of the TRIs, some of these were likely absorbed into the advanced programs above. Some also have not applied. Some also consistently remained unfilled (~100-150 spots - ~25 programs) prior to the merger. Of those there were ~79 programs in 2015 with ~491 spots. Of these 37 programs have applied, 31 have received accreditation, 5 are pre-accredited, and 1 has withdrawn. This correlated to ~192.7 spots (~39% of the spots, remember ~30% of these spots regularly went unfilled).

Overall, this correlates to ~70% of active* 2015 AOA spots already transitioning with accreditation, with ~18% still trying to get accredited. ~5% have withdrawn. Another ~6% never applied. *This does not include the ~30% of TRI programs (again the 100-150 spots - correlating to ~4-5% of all spots) that were essentially inactive at the start of the transition.

OK, so lets talk how I did this, because some of these numbers may seem unclear. I basically looked through all the ACGME reports for each specialty, looked at the 2015 program/match statistics, and like I said used a paper that analyzed the number of dual-accredited programs (published in 2015 - of note, the numbers above don't count the dual-accredited programs that are by default ACGME accredited) and the average spots in the AOA only programs. Using this data, for each specialty I estimated the average number of annual spots per program, and then used that to estimate how many spots had likely transitioned, in the hopes of getting a closer approximation to the number of spots that transitioned. Then I ran all the numbers and got what I got above. Combined programs were excluded as the ACGME does not technically accredit combined programs and I excluded the 1 Proctology spot, because ACGME doesn't have such positions. Also, I combined the combined FM/IM-NMM programs and the NMM+1 program numbers, because a lot of extra programs applied for OMM/NMM.

What does this mean? I think its likely that ~10% of the ~18% that are pre-accredited will make the transition, which will probably make the final number ~80% of active spots transitioning. At very worst if no more programs are accredited, 70% have already transitioned. When the merger was first announced, estimates were all over the place for how many programs would not make the transition with Gevitz saying 40% and AOA saying 10-15%. I believe I thought at the time it would be in the 15-20% range. Its likely it will be somewhere in the middle.

The real problem here isn't solely the transition, its the rapid expansion combined with the removal of the COCA graduating class placement requirement. Only the 2020 match will be able to tell what that will mean for DOs. In general the expansion is making matching harder for everyone, IMGs and then DOs first. I'm hoping that DO placement rates will remain >95%, but I'm not so sure anymore.

There should not be any need at all for my "math". Imo the true unfiltered data (not selective data) should be published for all to see.

It does exist to some degree. Its available to look into (which programs applied, etc.), but to get exact numbers, we'd need to actually look at each program. None of us (myself included) has the time nor the inherent interest in doing so. Perhaps when all is said and done, they will publish a report, but they haven't yet, and may never do so.

 

[deleted645092]

In response to those above arguing about existing residencies opening new spots vs. not, I can say with certainty that there are at least a few that are. Where I’m currently rotating they have already achieved accreditation for their IM and Psych residencies, and while I’m not sure if they are expanding the existing residencies, they have already been approved to begin brand new surgery and OB/GYN positions (2 surgery and I don’t know how many OB/GYN), as well as a new pulmonology fellowship.

So the existing programs may not be expanding but the total amount of residency spots IS increasing.

 

[AnatomyGrey12]

Seeing how many former AOA had lots of MD's on staff, its no surprise this stuff happens as soon as its able too.

Yeah, the guy doing research I understand, and I guess nepotism shouldn’t surprise us as that is pretty pervasive across medicine in general.

I understand if you don't want to get too specific, but what have you heard about the Olympia fields, IL program?

Not much, although I’d be a bit surprised if they didn’t ultimately get it.

 

[BorntobeDO?]

Alright so this was bothering me, so I ran numbers using the NATMATCH 2015 data, studies involving average number of AOA-only (as compared to dual-accredited) FM programs, and there some inherent flaws with other estimates. First off, as others have pointed out, programs that typically have larger numbers of spots (primary care programs) are more likely to have transitioned, whereas programs with less spots (specialties, especially surgical specialties) are less likely to make the transition. Second off, total numbers from that report you mentioned (which I actually believe are not entirely accurate) ignored the fact that some specialties were not listed in the OP, the largest of which were TRI programs. Third, there had always been spots that hadn't filled for years prior to 2015 (100-150 spots that were primarily TRI spots - ~5% of all PGY1 AOA spots at the time), and it doesn't make sense to include these, because its never really expected that such programs would transition - they weren't recruiting aggressively and were essentially closed (many people attempted to contact such programs and they would just never reply).

Anyway, when I ran the numbers, this is what I got:

-Of the categorical programs (non-advanced or TRIs) in 2015 there were a total of ~530 AOA-only programs with ~2131 spots. Of these 483 have applied, 381 have received accreditation, 80 are pre-accredited, and 19 have withdrawn (most are still technically "pre-accredited"). This correlated to ~1570.4 spots (~74% of the spots)
-Of the advanced programs in 2015 there were a total of ~69 AOA programs with ~140 spots. Of these 71 programs (yes this includes some new programs since 2015) have applied, 48 have received accreditation, 22 are pre-accredited, and 1 has withdrawn. This correlated to ~94.9 spots (~68% of the spots)
-Of the TRIs, some of these were likely absorbed into the advanced programs above. Some also have not applied. Some also consistently remained unfilled (~100-150 spots - ~25 programs) prior to the merger. Of those there were ~79 programs in 2015 with ~491 spots. Of these 37 programs have applied, 31 have received accreditation, 5 are pre-accredited, and 1 has withdrawn. This correlated to ~192.7 spots (~39% of the spots, remember ~30% of these spots regularly went unfilled).

Overall, this correlates to ~70% of active* 2015 AOA spots already transitioning with accreditation, with ~18% still trying to get accredited. ~5% have withdrawn. Another ~6% never applied. *This does not include the ~30% of TRI programs (again the 100-150 spots - correlating to ~4-5% of all spots) that were essentially inactive at the start of the transition.

OK, so lets talk how I did this, because some of these numbers may seem unclear. I basically looked through all the ACGME reports for each specialty, looked at the 2015 program/match statistics, and like I said used a paper that analyzed the number of dual-accredited programs (published in 2015 - of note, the numbers above don't count the dual-accredited programs that are by default ACGME accredited) and the average spots in the AOA only programs. Using this data, for each specialty I estimated the average number of annual spots per program, and then used that to estimate how many spots had likely transitioned, in the hopes of getting a closer approximation to the number of spots that transitioned. Then I ran all the numbers and got what I got above. Combined programs were excluded as the ACGME does not technically accredit combined programs and I excluded the 1 Proctology spot, because ACGME doesn't have such positions. Also, I combined the combined FM/IM-NMM programs and the NMM+1 program numbers, because a lot of extra programs applied for OMM/NMM.

What does this mean? I think its likely that ~10% of the ~18% that are pre-accredited will make the transition, which will probably make the final number ~80% of active spots transitioning. At very worst if no more programs are accredited, 70% have already transitioned. When the merger was first announced, estimates were all over the place for how many programs would not make the transition with Gevitz saying 40% and AOA saying 10-15%. I believe I thought at the time it would be in the 15-20% range. Its likely it will be somewhere in the middle.

The real problem here isn't solely the transition, its the rapid expansion combined with the removal of the COCA graduating class placement requirement. Only the 2020 match will be able to tell what that will mean for DOs. In general the expansion is making matching harder for everyone, IMGs and then DOs first. I'm hoping that DO placement rates will remain >95%, but I'm not so sure anymore.



It does exist to some degree. Its available to look into (which programs applied, etc.), but to get exact numbers, we'd need to actually look at each program. None of us (myself included) has the time nor the inherent interest in doing so. Perhaps when all is said and done, they will publish a report, but they haven't yet, and may never do so.

I would love to see your updated timeline on the collision course between grads and residency spots. At least 2 or 3 new branches opening for class of 2023 have been announced since your last one moved it down to 2026 (as the equal US grads to spots) in the summer.

How 'bout a 2019 DOstradamus thread?

 

[studentdoct4281]

You would be wrong. To get "initial accreditation" programs need to have 100% compliance. To get the "continued accreditation" programs only need 70% compliance (been told this by multiple PDs and residents currently in the process). Once you get it, it is hard to lose it.

you would be wrong. plenty of examples of programs losing it or making ridiculous changes to the program (like travelling across the country for a few months rotations). just looking out for some of my do peeps that is all

 

[Dr.Bruh]

you would be wrong. plenty of examples of programs losing it or making ridiculous changes to the program (like travelling across the country for a few months rotations). just looking out for some of my do peeps that is all

He’s still not wrong. Programs are allowed to be less compliant after initial accredit. So it’s unlikely program will lose them. Not impossible but very unlikely

 

[AnatomyGrey12]

you would be wrong.

I'm literally not wrong.