I know several people who were aiming IR eventually, but ranked a DR program at the top, because it was a top-ranking name that they knew would get them where they wanted eventually either way. I myself tend to click with the procedural bois personality-wise but will be applying DR-only because I'd rather have the flexibility and take an extra year or two if I decide IR is really what I want. The position I definitely want to avoid is being locked into categorical IR training and then later deciding I'd prefer the DR lifestyle. I think that hesitancy/flexibility of DR-->ESIR/Fellowship is bringing IR down a little in competitiveness.
As far as competitiveness for DR, the big name programs in desirable places are still pulling 250+ step averages and keeping pace with surgical fields, but there are hundreds more spots than US MD applicants for the DR field as a whole. So yeah exactly like Neo is talking about, I think it's multi-tiered where matching categorical IR or a competitive DR program remains tough, but with a huge safety net in both cases, in the form of solid smaller university or community programs that will always want to snatch up the relatively scarce supply of US MDs.
It also makes the USMLE distribution very interesting. For 2020, the same as prior charting outcomes, the most common USMLE score for US MD applicants is 250+, despite a complete lack of competitive pressure to elevate it there. The only other field showing this pattern (near-100% match rate yet a mode of 250+) is our fellow nerds over in Internal Medicine!