Your chances are good anywhere. Apply to your state schools and your choice of top 20s - you have the luxury of prioritizing places that are affordable among the top 20 schools. UMich has very generous merit-based aid, Penn also has a few merit scholarships, and Columbia recently eliminated loans and committed to meeting all need, I would apply to all three of those. Of course you would also want include Harvard, Yale, Hopkins, Duke, WUSTL, etc on your list