How long should the lock down last?

[thegenius]

Dr. Ioannidis should heed the conclusion of his own research 15 years ago:

"Why Most Published Research Findings Are False:

Why Most Published Research Findings Are False

Why Most Published Research Findings Are False - Wikipedia

---

Members don't see this ad.

 

[thegenius]

An Australian study of how coronavirus spread in 15 schools found a transmission rate of far less than 1%

A preliminary government-backed study of 15 Australian schools found that children are unlikely to spread the coronavirus in the classroom.

www.businessinsider.com

Would be interesting if this were true, the main problem is that Australia appears to have few cases.

If you have low prevalence of an infectious disease, it's harder to spread.

Man I want our kids to go back to school in the fall. It better f'ing happen. We do have to learn to live with this, go about our business and minimize spread.

 

[coachB]

Oh boy he is at it again.

I don't know this guy, but I used to have some amount of respect for him. But then he started spewing stupid stuff. He very early on said this is a nothing virus. We shouldn't get worked up over this at all. Easy peasy. And he has been proven, quite easily, wrong.

I do agree that IFR varies widely. In NYC it's > 1%. It's very easy math. Watch this.

NYC Population: 8.4M
Seropositive studies: estimate 20% have tested positive for antibodies. Studies have shown that.
Number of Deaths: Estimate 25K. It's very close to that.

8.4 M x 20% = 1.680 M

25,000 / 1,680,000 = 0.0148 = 1.5%

Dr. Ioannidis has proven that he is not objective. He has an agenda. He is wrong. He is now publishing non peer-reviewed data. It is really, really sad. (Two really's is more pronounced than one really.)

I may be wrong, but I don't believe he ever said "this is a nothing virus." He said that we didn't have good data, which was absolutely correct. And continues to be correct. How has he proven that "he is not objective" or "has an agenda"? Did you read the paper? He acknowledges potential sources of error.

Current NYC confirmed Covid deaths reported by the health dept today is just over 16k. Include probably and you get to 21k. And a month ago seroprevalence was reported as 24.7%. Likely much higher now. But even without that adjustment, it cuts your number down to 1%. Sill on the high side but given factors related to population density and care delivery, you would have to expect NYC to be an outlier on the high side.

The reality is that Ioannidis is still right, we don't have good data.

 

[Nobutyesbutno]

We will see how it shakes out. They make peak sooner and drop faster. At the end of the day it will be difficult to compare approaches. South Korea isn't an approach that a Western society can really use. Sweden is the only example of an entire Western country not shutting down. Here in the States it would be valuable to compare South Dakota with other prairie states who shut down to see if there was any difference.

With respect to Sweden the reality is a little different to the perception that they didn't lock down. They government issued a lot of guidance with respect to social distancing travel and so on which was overwhelmingly complied with.

Swedish culture is relevant as well. Their is a high degree of consensus about what the role of government should be in general and a high degree of trust in government. Because of this the Swedish culture of taking personal responsibility doesn't conflict with taking government advice in the same way that it does in the US for instance where taking personal responsibility correlates with government mistrust.

95% compliance with limited guidance is probably more effective for this particular virus than 75% compliance with a harsher lockdown.

I agree its going to be a long while to see whose approach has fared best. Excess mortality is going to be the best indicator

Graphs and maps from EUROMOMO

www.euromomo.eu

 

[VA Hopeful Dr]

I may be wrong, but I don't believe he ever said "this is a nothing virus." He said that we didn't have good data, which was absolutely correct. And continues to be correct. How has he proven that "he is not objective" or "has an agenda"? Did you read the paper? He acknowledges potential sources of error.

Current NYC confirmed Covid deaths reported by the health dept today is just over 16k. Include probably and you get to 21k. And a month ago seroprevalence was reported as 24.7%. Likely much higher now. But even without that adjustment, it cuts your number down to 1%. Sill on the high side but given factors related to population density and care delivery, you would have to expect NYC to be an outlier on the high side.

The reality is that Ioannidis is still right, we don't have good data.

You also have to take into account that we don't know how accurate those antibody tests are

 

[MHYDE]

With respect to Sweden the reality is a little different to the perception that they didn't lock down. They government issued a lot of guidance with respect to social distancing travel and so on which was overwhelmingly complied with.

Swedish culture is relevant as well. Their is a high degree of consensus about what the role of government should be in general and a high degree of trust in government. Because of this the Swedish culture of taking personal responsibility doesn't conflict with taking government advice in the same way that it does in the US for instance where taking personal responsibility correlates with government mistrust.

95% compliance with limited guidance is probably more effective for this particular virus than 75% compliance with a harsher lockdown.

I agree its going to be a long while to see whose approach has fared best. Excess mortality is going to be the best indicator

Graphs and maps from EUROMOMO

www.euromomo.eu

I've seen this argument made elsewhere and I think there's truth to it. But I think it still goes a little far. The argument goes "Sweden didn't lock down or issue stay-at-home orders, but they still have engaged in substantial social distancing..." Yes, they've canceled large events and university, and people are traveling less, but Swedish life looks VASTLY different from life here in Michigan. If you walk down the street in a Swedish city, you will see people coming and going from stores, dining with friends in cafes, mostly mask-less. Kids are in school now and will be again in the fall (not sure about summer camps but I imagine they are a go). Those things are currently illegal where I live, and even when allowed will be substantially restricted.

Sweden's strategy is coherent, sustainable, and forward-thinking. That said, it may turn out be wrong. What I find irritating is people claiming that their strategy has failed because of how their numbers look today, or last week (their death rate is worse than Ohio's and better than Michigan's, both similarly populous regions with significant lockdowns, and that's meaningful or helpful... why exactly?). Right or wrong, we won't really know for a while because it is by definition a long-term strategy. They have said so explicitly, (paraphrasing): "a year or two from now, we'll all be in the same place, but we will have gotten there with much less disruption". Even if their economy isn't spared, the singular fact that their kids will have stayed in school this whole time will have to be viewed as a huge success. Again, if it works.

Lastly, I dislike the insinuation (and sometimes the explicit accusation) that Sweden has taken a huge gamble with the lives of their citizens, that their strategy is inherently and unacceptably risky. Yes, they've taken a risk. Haven't we as well? We've embarked on an unprecedented and unproven societal and economic lockdown, which has certainly crippled us and may not even achieve what we want it to achieve (preventing death and suffering). Again, our strategy may be right and Sweden's may be wrong, or vice-versa, but to say that they've taken a risk and we haven't is just disingenuous. And this is public health; by definition, we are discussing matters of life and death. Any action or lack of action has life or death consequences. Sweden's, and ours. We still have to grow up and consider cost/benefit and risk/benefit to any intervention.

 

[thegenius]

I may be wrong, but I don't believe he ever said "this is a nothing virus." He said that we didn't have good data, which was absolutely correct. And continues to be correct. How has he proven that "he is not objective" or "has an agenda"? Did you read the paper? He acknowledges potential sources of error.

He didn't say specifically that this is a "nothing virus", but that's what he's ultimately saying and he admits to that using different, more scientific words. He wrote that we don't have good data and we should make large scale decisions on incomplete data. then he said in the last few paragraphs (paraphrase) "I happen to think this is not a dangerous virus"

Of course he has an agenda. 100% so. His agenda is to be in the very small cohort of scientists who believe this is less or equally deadly than the flu. So when it's all said and done and there is less deaths than predicted, he can be right and be considered "smarter" than everyone else. That will certainly help his career.

Everybody has an agenda. And some agenda's are more influential than others. Politicians have agendas and want to get re-elected and will do anything to do so. The media who report on this want people to read and subscribe to their services. There are those who think we'll have massive death. I have an agenda but because I'm not influential at all and don't matter on this earth, my agenda doesn't matter at all.

I mean...for fruck's sake we still have crappy data - but he insists on taking that crappy data and modeling it to come up with a result that suits his agenda. So now we are suppose to think he has high quality research from crappy data?

No...I've lost respect for this guy.

Current NYC confirmed Covid deaths reported by the health dept today is just over 16k. Include probably and you get to 21k. And a month ago seroprevalence was reported as 24.7%. Likely much higher now. But even without that adjustment, it cuts your number down to 1%. Sill on the high side but given factors related to population density and care delivery, you would have to expect NYC to be an outlier on the high side.

I don't know where you get the 24.7%, the first several hits on a search engine show 21%, 20%. But this is quibbling over small numbers. I can come up with the many more thousands who are dead who are not accounted for at all, and without question some of those, if not most, are from the virus. Or I can bring up how 1,000,000 New Yorkers and others in the TriState Area just left, so the true number of people who can potentially get exposed in NY is probably several hundreds of thousands less. But I'm not going to get into that.

The reality is that Ioannidis is still right, we don't have good data.

The only thing he is right about is we don't have good data. That paper he wrote above is shiite.

 

[GeneralVeers]

On Sunday or Monday we will hit 100,000 "deaths". The CNN Death Counter is likely to explode, and the news media will trumpet it as a reason to continue the lockdowns indefinitely and social distance forever.

Nevermind the flu of 1968 that killed 100,000 people when the U.S. population was half....

 

[thegenius]

What will happen first, 250,000 US deaths from COVID-19 or the Dow Jones reaching 29,000 points?

 

[GeneralVeers]

What will happen first, 250,000 US deaths from COVID-19 or the Dow Jones reaching 29,000 points?

If Sleepy Joe gets elected, then 250K deaths. If Trump gets re-elected, then Dow 29K (we will have the same number of deaths either way)

 

[Apollyon]

If Sleepy Joe gets elected, then 250K deaths. If Trump gets re-elected, then Dow 29K (we will have the same number of deaths either way)

Watch out - wahoo3.14159 might clip you with a "dislike", just because s/he can!

 

[thegenius]

If Sleepy Joe gets elected, then 250K deaths. If Trump gets re-elected, then Dow 29K (we will have the same number of deaths either way)

Yea I think it's going to be a 2-3 years until we get 29K. Kind of depends on when we approve, or get close to approving the marginally useful vaccine that we all are going to be forced to take sometime in 2021.

250K deaths is gonna happen sometime in 2021.

 

[GeneralVeers]

Yea I think it's going to be a 2-3 years until we get 29K. Kind of depends on when we approve, or get close to approving the marginally useful vaccine that we all are going to be forced to take sometime in 2021.

250K deaths is gonna happen sometime in 2021.

I wonder what percentage of the > 81 year old nursing home patients would have died in 1-3 years without COVID anyway. Would be interesting to get some numbers.

 

[longtimelurker2015]

I wonder what percentage of the > 81 year old nursing home patients would have died in 1-3 years without COVID anyway. Would be interesting to get some numbers.

Not a direct answer to your question, but some paper a few weeks back (I can't locate it now) found the average patient who died from COVID (mean age seems to be in the low 70's) without COVID would have lived a decade longer. Food for thought and fodder agains the idea that most COVID deaths are for nil since those patients were on their death bed anyway (evidently not).

 

[GeneralVeers]

Not a direct answer to your question, but some paper a few weeks back (I can't locate it now) found the average patient who died from COVID (mean age seems to be in the low 70's) without COVID would have lived a decade longer. Food for thought and fodder agains the idea that most COVID deaths are for nil since those patients were on their death bed anyway (evidently not).

Huh? Everything I've read from Italy and NYC seems to indicate the average COVID death is 81 yo with co-morbidities.

 

[wamcp]

I've seen this argument made elsewhere and I think there's truth to it. But I think it still goes a little far. The argument goes "Sweden didn't lock down or issue stay-at-home orders, but they still have engaged in substantial social distancing..." Yes, they've canceled large events and university, and people are traveling less, but Swedish life looks VASTLY different from life here in Michigan. If you walk down the street in a Swedish city, you will see people coming and going from stores, dining with friends in cafes, mostly mask-less. Kids are in school now and will be again in the fall (not sure about summer camps but I imagine they are a go). Those things are currently illegal where I live, and even when allowed will be substantially restricted.

Sweden's strategy is coherent, sustainable, and forward-thinking. That said, it may turn out be wrong. What I find irritating is people claiming that their strategy has failed because of how their numbers look today, or last week (their death rate is worse than Ohio's and better than Michigan's, both similarly populous regions with significant lockdowns, and that's meaningful or helpful... why exactly?). Right or wrong, we won't really know for a while because it is by definition a long-term strategy. They have said so explicitly, (paraphrasing): "a year or two from now, we'll all be in the same place, but we will have gotten there with much less disruption". Even if their economy isn't spared, the singular fact that their kids will have stayed in school this whole time will have to be viewed as a huge success. Again, if it works.

Lastly, I dislike the insinuation (and sometimes the explicit accusation) that Sweden has taken a huge gamble with the lives of their citizens, that their strategy is inherently and unacceptably risky. Yes, they've taken a risk. Haven't we as well? We've embarked on an unprecedented and unproven societal and economic lockdown, which has certainly crippled us and may not even achieve what we want it to achieve (preventing death and suffering). Again, our strategy may be right and Sweden's may be wrong, or vice-versa, but to say that they've taken a risk and we haven't is just disingenuous. And this is public health; by definition, we are discussing matters of life and death. Any action or lack of action has life or death consequences. Sweden's, and ours. We still have to grow up and consider cost/benefit and risk/benefit to any intervention.

Yes, it is absolutely ridiculous how the goalposts have moved.

At first it was all about “let’s lockdown totally so we FLATTEN THE CURVE and avoid overwhelming the hospitals”.

Now that we achieved that, people are crying out “you can’t reopen because people can still DIE!!”

They point to Sweden, yet forget to look at the fact that they were successful- hospitals were NOT flooded despite lack of a blanket shutdown.

 

[wamcp]

He didn't say specifically that this is a "nothing virus", but that's what he's ultimately saying and he admits to that using different, more scientific words. He wrote that we don't have good data and we should make large scale decisions on incomplete data. then he said in the last few paragraphs (paraphrase) "I happen to think this is not a dangerous virus"

Of course he has an agenda. 100% so. His agenda is to be in the very small cohort of scientists who believe this is less or equally deadly than the flu. So when it's all said and done and there is less deaths than predicted, he can be right and be considered "smarter" than everyone else. That will certainly help his career.

Everybody has an agenda. And some agenda's are more influential than others. Politicians have agendas and want to get re-elected and will do anything to do so. The media who report on this want people to read and subscribe to their services. There are those who think we'll have massive death. I have an agenda but because I'm not influential at all and don't matter on this earth, my agenda doesn't matter at all.

I mean...for fruck's sake we still have crappy data - but he insists on taking that crappy data and modeling it to come up with a result that suits his agenda. So now we are suppose to think he has high quality research from crappy data?

No...I've lost respect for this guy.



I don't know where you get the 24.7%, the first several hits on a search engine show 21%, 20%. But this is quibbling over small numbers. I can come up with the many more thousands who are dead who are not accounted for at all, and without question some of those, if not most, are from the virus. Or I can bring up how 1,000,000 New Yorkers and others in the TriState Area just left, so the true number of people who can potentially get exposed in NY is probably several hundreds of thousands less. But I'm not going to get into that.



The only thing he is right about is we don't have good data. That paper he wrote above is shiite.

I suggest not to fight data with your own feelings, leanings and biases...data is data.

CDC most recent estimates revise the case fatality ratio down to 0.40%. This matches the high end of Ionnadis’ publication estimates. Which makes the infection fatality ratio likely 0.1% or lower (similar to flu).

We can logically expect the CDC estimate of CFR and thus IFR to continue to trend down as testing becomes more widespread (CDC are also assuming 35% asymptomatic, likely a low assumption).

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EYllZZlU8AU6h_l?format=png&name=900x900

 

[GeneralVeers]

Also the CDC just published on it's website the finding that "COVID-19 is not easily transmissible from surfaces". This should end the waive of non-sensical sterilization of every touched surface. Hopefully the idiocy of "six feet" and "masks" is soon to follow.

 

[Brigade4Radiant]

Well Georgia isn’t doing as bad as the experts claimed it would we are now at 4 weeks

 

[Birdstrike]

Life must go on.

 

[GeneralVeers]

Well Georgia isn’t doing as bad as the experts claimed it would we are now at 4 weeks

Both the Georgia and Florida governors were accused of "murdering" or "sacrificing" their citizens by reopening. The actual data has shown the opposite as case rates have gone down.

The more evidence we get from states which didn't lock down, and those that re-opened early show that continuing this lockdown has little or no public health benefit and causes great harm to people.

Los Angeles is going to be locked.down through July. Simply insane! Why won't they follow the "science"?

 

[VA Hopeful Dr]

Anyone have any thoughts as to why Montgomery AL is doing so much worse than Birmingham, with its much larger and denser population?

 

[coachB]

He didn't say specifically that this is a "nothing virus", but that's what he's ultimately saying and he admits to that using different, more scientific words. He wrote that we don't have good data and we should make large scale decisions on incomplete data. then he said in the last few paragraphs (paraphrase) "I happen to think this is not a dangerous virus"

Of course he has an agenda. 100% so. His agenda is to be in the very small cohort of scientists who believe this is less or equally deadly than the flu. So when it's all said and done and there is less deaths than predicted, he can be right and be considered "smarter" than everyone else. That will certainly help his career.

Everybody has an agenda. And some agenda's are more influential than others. Politicians have agendas and want to get re-elected and will do anything to do so. The media who report on this want people to read and subscribe to their services. There are those who think we'll have massive death. I have an agenda but because I'm not influential at all and don't matter on this earth, my agenda doesn't matter at all.

I mean...for fruck's sake we still have crappy data - but he insists on taking that crappy data and modeling it to come up with a result that suits his agenda. So now we are suppose to think he has high quality research from crappy data?

No...I've lost respect for this guy.



I don't know where you get the 24.7%, the first several hits on a search engine show 21%, 20%. But this is quibbling over small numbers. I can come up with the many more thousands who are dead who are not accounted for at all, and without question some of those, if not most, are from the virus. Or I can bring up how 1,000,000 New Yorkers and others in the TriState Area just left, so the true number of people who can potentially get exposed in NY is probably several hundreds of thousands less. But I'm not going to get into that.



The only thing he is right about is we don't have good data. That paper he wrote above is shiite.

So what specifically about the methods he used in this paper do you think are inappropriate? What limitations were not acknowledged? Maybe you can start there.

 

[deleted836128]

This is a dumb side anecdote. One of my local women’s apparel stores is only letting two people in the store at a time and they cannot try on clothes. They have to buy them and return them if they don’t fit. When the clothes are returned they are kept in the back in a closed off area for FOURTEEN DAYS before they can go back on the floor to be sold again... SMH... ‍♀

My local Marshall’s reopened today and there are literally arrows on the floor for which direction you can walk in, all throughout the store. It is so stupid.

 

[bravotwozero]

Both the Georgia and Florida governors were accused of "murdering" or "sacrificing" their citizens by reopening. The actual data has shown the opposite as case rates have gone down.

The more evidence we get from states which didn't lock down, and those that re-opened early show that continuing this lockdown has little or no public health benefit and causes great harm to people.

Los Angeles is going to be locked.down through July. Simply insane! Why won't they follow the "science"?

Are you going back to the gym?

 

[RustedFox]

Are you going back to the gym?

They open on Monday here in BoomerTown.
I figure I'll start late in the week, because I have OtherAppointments booked M/T/W that need to happen.

 

[thegenius]

I suggest not to fight data with your own feelings, leanings and biases...data is data.

CDC most recent estimates revise the case fatality ratio down to 0.40%. This matches the high end of Ionnadis’ publication estimates. Which makes the infection fatality ratio likely 0.1% or lower (similar to flu).

We can logically expect the CDC estimate of CFR and thus IFR to continue to trend down as testing becomes more widespread (CDC are also assuming 35% asymptomatic, likely a low assumption).

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EYllZZlU8AU6h_l?format=png&name=900x900

Yea but your wrong. How many times can that be written. Ioannidis is wrong. Symptomatic COVID-19 is about ten times deadlier than the symptomatic flu. There are hundreds, perhaps thousands, of search engine hits to that effect.

I'm going to unwatch this thread. Let's see how long that will last.

 

[thegenius]

Anyone have any thoughts as to why Montgomery AL is doing so much worse than Birmingham, with its much larger and denser population?

Because Ioannidis is wrong.

 

[Apollyon]

Because Ioannidis is wrong.

Dude, this **** makes you sound like a dope. I'm on neither side. You're smarter/better than this.

 

[Modstopizdy]

It should end in mid 2023. That way I can have a chill residency without crazy volume and then enter the job market just as the pent up demand for medical services is unleashed.

 

[deleted859535]

It should end in mid 2023. That way I can have a chill residency without crazy volume and then enter the job market just as the pent up demand for medical services is unleashed.

Resulting in you being way over your head.

 

[deleted480308]

Interesting huh? Yet the Teacher's unions continue to claim "It's not safe" for their members, while they sit at home collecting full pay for doing next-to-nothing.

My kids are public school and let me tell you.......NOTHING in regards to reasonable quality coming out of the school right now as they adapt to online

 

[deleted1005514]

My kids are pretty happy about it though, I mean they start their daily online school work at 8AM and finish it around 8:15AM.

Yeah, it’s bad. Really bad. They’re not even pretending to be trying to educate any more. Also the district decided to end school over a week early just because. Meanwhile I get to keep paying my $10K/yr in property taxes to the school.

Ours ended the school year in March, but still posted busy work online until yesterday. However, the teachers told the kids that it wouldn’t be graded because final grades were calculated based on the first semester.

So I’m left trying to convince a bunch of teenagers that they’ll need to extra concepts, even though they’re not graded so the incentive to finish the work is GONE. They get up around 11:00 and get done by noon.

 

[ShockIndex]

ACEP President’s article in The Hill calling for continued social distancing and lockdowns:

A ‘return to normal’ will reverse our progress

The nation’s emergency physicians implore you to continue following safety guidelines to protect yourself, your family and your community. If you let down your guard before the bell, you leave your…

thehill.com

“Make no mistake: the re-opening of the economy does not mean the threat of COVID-19 has passed. Confirmed cases and deaths are still rising. Just last week, Dr. Anthony Fauci, a key member of the White House COVID-19 Task force, warned senators that reopening prematurely, without the capability to respond effectively and efficiently, will “trigger an outbreak that you may not be able to control.” The U.S. is already struggling with 20,000 infections a day, and the tragedies will increase as states relax their stay-at-home guidelines.”

 

[Rekt]

Both the Georgia and Florida governors were accused of "murdering" or "sacrificing" their citizens by reopening. The actual data has shown the opposite as case rates have gone down.

The more evidence we get from states which didn't lock down, and those that re-opened early show that continuing this lockdown has little or no public health benefit and causes great harm to people.

Los Angeles is going to be locked.down through July. Simply insane! Why won't they follow the "science"?

You can't even tell people the numbers are down because they're so brainwashed from headlines, they just say that the governor's of X and Y states are making people lie about death reporting.

 

[VA Hopeful Dr]

ACEP President’s article in The Hill calling for continued social distancing and lockdowns:

A ‘return to normal’ will reverse our progress

The nation’s emergency physicians implore you to continue following safety guidelines to protect yourself, your family and your community. If you let down your guard before the bell, you leave your…

thehill.com

“Make no mistake: the re-opening of the economy does not mean the threat of COVID-19 has passed. Confirmed cases and deaths are still rising. Just last week, Dr. Anthony Fauci, a key member of the White House COVID-19 Task force, warned senators that reopening prematurely, without the capability to respond effectively and efficiently, will “trigger an outbreak that you may not be able to control.” The U.S. is already struggling with 20,000 infections a day, and the tragedies will increase as states relax their stay-at-home guidelines.”

Timely:

Dr. Anthony Fauci says staying closed for too long could cause 'irreparable damage'

"I don't want people to think that any of us feel that staying locked down for a prolonged period of time is the way to go," he tells CNBC.

www.cnbc.com

 

[Rekt]

ACEP President’s article in The Hill calling for continued social distancing and lockdowns:

A ‘return to normal’ will reverse our progress

The nation’s emergency physicians implore you to continue following safety guidelines to protect yourself, your family and your community. If you let down your guard before the bell, you leave your…

thehill.com

“Make no mistake: the re-opening of the economy does not mean the threat of COVID-19 has passed. Confirmed cases and deaths are still rising. Just last week, Dr. Anthony Fauci, a key member of the White House COVID-19 Task force, warned senators that reopening prematurely, without the capability to respond effectively and efficiently, will “trigger an outbreak that you may not be able to control.” The U.S. is already struggling with 20,000 infections a day, and the tragedies will increase as states relax their stay-at-home guidelines.”

He's probably an idiot, but in reality any physician that can't remain anonymous has to go with the general consensus that a permanent lockdown is the answer or you risk getting crucified still. Even though no one can answer how what the point of a continued lockdown is or that it will actually save lives. (No, this doesn't mean throwing a party at the nursing home). The fact is, as much stuff as possible should be opening right now and healthy people should be out trying to build immunity before the fall. The old, the fat, and the sick should continue to self quarantine.

It's a virus. There is no cure. The treatments likely aren't going to work. A safe vaccine is still years away. It's far too late to control the spread of the virus. Most people who have put thought into it at all know that a virus is what's going to kill most of the planet. We should be lucky it's not the perfect ratio of contagiousness and fatal. Consider this a trial run and move on.

 

[Brigade4Radiant]

We would be better off with just wearing masks and having hand sanitizer stations everywhere

 

[Birdstrike]

CDC COVID-19 UPDATE - Symptomatic case fatality rate for those under 50 = 0.05%.

That's 1 death per 2,000 people with known COVID-19 under age 50, per CDC. If you know people under age 50 that have had COVID, you're not likely to see one of them die until you've known a total of 1,999 people under 50 with confirmed symptomatic COVID-19, per CDC.

 

[Birdstrike]

He's probably an idiot, but in reality any physician that can't remain anonymous has to go with the general consensus that a permanent lockdown is the answer or you risk getting crucified still.

He likely doesn't want his career executed for being right, like Galileo.

COVID-panic has become religion. Refusing to unquestionably accept this Faith of Fear, by choosing to go on with life accepting a small amount of risk, is heresy. Questioning the Faith with facts, data or reason is met with accusations of being dangerous and ignorantly "anti-science." It wouldn't matter if the fatality rate dropped to 0.000000000000000001% because, "That means there was one! And he was just like me! It was tragic and I could be next. I know because a crying nurse on Facebook told me so!"

 

[Groove]

So, I'm really about to go nuts not being able to go to the gym. They are technically "open" but you wear a mask, work outs are 45 mins tops and they only allow 25% of the capacity. What's more is that I got an IgG test recently and was shockingly negative. I kind of had mixed feelings about the results as it made me even more paranoid about getting exposed. I really am surprised though as many COVID-19 patients that I've been treating lately.

Anyway, so I went to a local dealer for gyms in the area and purchased an Inspire FT2 functional trainer and am going to build a gym on my 2nd floor. It's not installed yet but when it comes, I think I'll use it exclusively until a vaccine is out. I've lost tons of muscle since the pandemic and seem to be growing an annoying little whisky gut that needs to get taken off.

I may throw a Peloton in there or something. Though, I wish Peloton made an elliptical.

 

[ShockIndex]

He's probably an idiot...

Well, then I suppose that it’s good for ACEP members to know that they have probably elected an idiot as their president.

 

[ShockIndex]

He likely doesn't want his career executed for being right, like Galileo.

COVID-panic has become religion. Refusing to unquestionably accept this Faith of Fear, by choosing to go on with life accepting a small amount of risk, is heresy. Questioning the Faith with facts, data or reason is met with accusations of being dangerous and ignorantly "anti-science." It wouldn't matter if the fatality rate dropped to 0.000000000000000001% because, "That means there was one! And he was just like me! It was tragic and I could be next. I know because a crying nurse on Facebook told me so!"

Did someone put a gun to his head and make him write that?

All he had to do was say something like this, “As America begins the inevitable process of restarting our economic engine, ACEP calls on our political, economic, and cultural leadership to use this opportunity to shore up our healthcare infrastructure including testing, therapeutics, and protective equipment so that our nation will be better prepared to respond to this and other crisis.”

 

[Rekt]

Well, then I suppose that it’s good for ACEP members to know that they have probably elected an idiot as their president.

I don't remember getting a ballot.

I'm AAEM crew though. (Probably obvious).

 

[Birdstrike]

Did someone put a gun to his head and make him write that?

All he had to do was say something like this, “As America begins the inevitable process of restarting our economic engine, ACEP calls on our political, economic, and cultural leadership to use this opportunity to shore up our healthcare infrastructure including testing, therapeutics, and protective equipment so that our nation will be better prepared to respond to this and other crisis.”

We have a new nominee for ACEP President.

 

[WilcoWorld]

I'm really not sure who you all are arguing against here.

The ACEP president says "We must continue to limit in-person interactions, keep a safe distance between others, wear masks and other protective gear and sanitize diligently." And this poster counters with:

We would be better off with just wearing masks and having hand sanitizer stations everywhere

Dr. Fauci says “I don’t want people to think that any of us feel that staying locked down for a prolonged period of time is the way to go” and another poster replies:

COVID-panic has become religion. Refusing to unquestionably accept this Faith of Fear, by choosing to go on with life accepting a small amount of risk, is heresy.

I suspect many of you think I'm a bleeding heart liberal. Yet I support reopening businesses in areas with a sustained decline in new cases. These reopenings should be paired with robust monitoring - an acceleration in new cases would indicate we've jumped the gun but if our monitoring shows us that these moves are followed by a continued decline in cases, it would indicate that we can accelerate reopening. Most of the "liberals" I talk to feel similarly. What the "liberals" I talk to disagree with is a one size fits all approach to repoening that lacks a plan for monitoring and responsiveness.

Sure, you can find crazies out there making ridiculous assertions, but these crazies exist on both "sides" of this issue (an issue that really shouldn't have sides, IMO). Arguing against the extreme of a position, when that is not actually what your opponent is arguing for, is straw-manning and can make for appealing rhetoric but doesn't actually advance the conversation.

 

[Birdstrike]

It's got a religious bent to it for sure. But I also wonder how much of it stems from peoples' inherent need to find meaning, and with their difficulty in cutting their losses. If a true believer looks at the CDC chart you posted and accepts that it might be true, they also then have to accept that everything they've lost these past couple of months might have been without the purpose they were told it had. And like the investor who can't accept that he invested in a failing company, and keeps throwing good money after bad instead of just cutting his losses and moving forward, these people keep doubling down because otherwise they would have to admit to themselves that maybe everything they invested/ lost in this lockdown was for naught. And that is a bitter pill to swallow.

You make a very good point.

 

[Birdstrike]

@WilcoWorld, I presented this data from the CDC (below). I encourage you to go to the source link and read the data straight from the source without the filter of my summary. I'm curious as to your reaction.

CDC COVID-19 UPDATE - Symptomatic case fatality rate for those under 50 = 0.05%.

That's 1 death per 2,000 people with known COVID-19 under age 50, per CDC. If you know people under age 50 that have had COVID, you're not likely to see one of them die until you've known a total of 1,999 people under 50 with confirmed symptomatic COVID-19, per CDC.




View attachment 307308

 

[RustedFox]

Y'all lost me at "but.... ACEP".

ACEP.

America's
Corporate
Emergency
Propaganda

?

 

[GeneralVeers]

Many of the doctors I work with also think we should be shut down indefinitely. They tell me this in their full PAPR that they are wearing in the charting area, as they finish the charts for the single digit number of patients.