How long should the lock down last?

[GeneralVeers]

So what are you guys doing personally?

Nothing has fundamentally changed, except that now others are practicing a creepy, superstitious fear cult.

I wear a surgical mask in patient rooms, and an N95 to intubate/procedures. Everything else is business as usual for me. If everyone else wants to be terrified all the time, cool, let them do that so long as they don't bother me.

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[GeneralVeers]

Interesting graphic. 42% of all fatalities have been in nursing homes and assisted living facilities.

 

[Birdstrike]

COVID cases may be declining too rapidly to effectively do vaccine trials, according to Oxford University:

"It is a race, yes. But it's not a race against the other guys. It's a race against the virus disappearing, and against time," he said. "At the moment ...We're in the bizarre position of wanting COVID to stay, at least for a little while. But cases are declining."

 

[VA Hopeful Dr]

Interesting graphic. 42% of all fatalities have been in nursing homes and assisted living facilities.

NY is weirdly low on this. I'd guess because things got so busy up there that they weren't able to provide optimal care to the younger folks who might have pulled through, but it does make you wonder.

 

[GeneralVeers]

Wuhan, China’s Ongoing Coronavirus Testing Shows A 0.002% Infection Rate

The second wave narrative is dead. Meanwhile, many European Union countries are saying they'll never do lockdowns again.

www.forbes.com

I'd love to believe that article and hope it's true, but I don't trust any data out of China. They have too much of a vested interest now in saying that the virus isn't that bad, because they want to stop manufacturing companies from fleeing.

 

[bravotwozero]

Looks like Alabama is seeing a surge, Montgomery hospitals at capacity. Hope they have a stay at home order issued.

Coronavirus cases surge in Alabama capital

 

[Dr Mantis Toboggan]

Looks like Alabama is seeing a surge, Montgomery hospitals at capacity. Hope they have a stay at home order issued.

Coronavirus cases surge in Alabama capital

Gulf Shores was pretty lit this weekend.

 

[Birdstrike]

0.6% of Americans reside in nursing homes & assisted living facilities.

That 0.6% of Americans makes up 43% of US COVID-19 deaths. - FORBES

 

[Birdstrike]

Remember the NY Times article about the 26-year-old E.R. resident in NY that died of COVID-19, that really had you scared?

It was fake news.

 

[deleted836128]

CDC COVID-19 UPDATE - Symptomatic case fatality rate for those under 50 = 0.05%.

That's 1 death per 2,000 people with known COVID-19 under age 50, per CDC. If you know people under age 50 that have had COVID, you're not likely to see one of them die until you've known a total of 1,999 people under 50 with confirmed symptomatic COVID-19, per CDC.




View attachment 307308

OMG... that’s so severe.. we need to continue the lock down... tHiS iS tOo scary! 1/2000 chance of dying! Omg omg omg

 

[alpinism]

NY is weirdly low on this. I'd guess because things got so busy up there that they weren't able to provide optimal care to the younger folks who might have pulled through, but it does make you wonder.

New York only counts nursing home patients who die in nursing homes.

 

[GeneralVeers]

New York only counts nursing home patients who die in nursing homes.

That makes sense for the numbers, but not for record-keeping.

This week I started my vacation, enjoying freedom in AZ! Being allowed to go to the gym again is great for mental health.

 

[sunshinefl]

Yesterday was my anniversary and I went out to dinner (dine-in) for the first time since mid-March when everything closed. It felt amazing.

 

[deleted109597]

Iceland is going to open their borders first it appears.
I'm going.

 

[GeneralVeers]

Las Vegas Casinos open June 4!

 

[dadaddadaBATMAN]

OMG... that’s so severe.. we need to continue the lock down... tHiS iS tOo scary! 1/2000 chance of dying! Omg omg omg

...applying it to 50% of the population that would still be about 50,000 people under the age of 50 dying. I don’t think lock downs change that number, but I do find the number sobering.

If someone bombed a football stadium and killed that many people it would stay in every history course for at least a hundred years. The fact that it happens over the course of two years doesn’t make it better to me.

 

[deleted109597]

...applying it to 50% of the population that would still be about 50,000 people under the age of 50 dying. I don’t think lock downs change that number, but I do find the number sobering.

If someone bombed a football stadium and killed that many people it would stay in every history course for at least a hundred years. The fact that it happens over the course of two years doesn’t make it better to me.

It's not like the Spanish Flu was part of the curriculum for most people.

 

[MediMike]

...applying it to 50% of the population that would still be about 50,000 people under the age of 50 dying. I don’t think lock downs change that number, but I do find the number sobering.

If someone bombed a football stadium and killed that many people it would stay in every history course for at least a hundred years. The fact that it happens over the course of two years doesn’t make it better to me.

Thanks for responding to that prior post. My eyes rolled so hard I got a headache, walked away and forgot about it.

 

[GeneralVeers]

...applying it to 50% of the population that would still be about 50,000 people under the age of 50 dying. I don’t think lock downs change that number, but I do find the number sobering.

If someone bombed a football stadium and killed that many people it would stay in every history course for at least a hundred years. The fact that it happens over the course of two years doesn’t make it better to me.

That happens every year predictably. Between 40 and 60k deaths from flu. Im still not sure whats so.different about this virus except bigger numbers that are still small in the grand scheme.

 

[RustedFox]

Las Vegas Casinos open June 4!

 

[dadaddadaBATMAN]

That happens every year predictably. Between 40 and 60k deaths from flu. Im still not sure whats so.different about this virus except bigger numbers that are still small in the grand scheme.

The relative youth of the deaths. That also seems like a conservative estimate, but I’ve given up on predicting it

 

[deleted109597]

The relative youth of the deaths. That also seems like a conservative estimate, but I’ve given up on predicting it

Most young people aren't dying of COVID

 

[GeneralVeers]

The relative youth of the deaths. That also seems like a conservative estimate, but I’ve given up on predicting it

Its actually the opposite of what you just said

 

[ShockIndex]

I think it’s fair to say that the lock down is effectively over given the activities of the past 4 evenings.

For those of you in admin, you need to start hardening the security within your hospital at all levels. I know that budgets are especially tight, but thinking that the civil unrest will spare hospitals could be a big, big mistake. On an individual basis, that means paying attention to your surroundings - especially when going to and from work.

 

[GeneralVeers]

Funny how if you lock down an entire population against their will, seize their private property, and destroy their livelihoods they will revolt and break stuff.

 

[SeekerOfTheTree]

Funny how if you lock down an entire population against their will, seize their private property, and destroy their livelihoods they will revolt and break stuff.

Lol. This is a big reason that the protests are at the level they are at. Keep everybody home without jobs and paid unemployment and it is easy to get a good turnout to anything. ANYTHING...Heck, I want to go protest because I am bored as hell.

 

[twospadz]

Everyone should agree that the lockdown was a horrible choice in hindsight as they essentially amplified these protests.. 40 million people out work, colleges shutdown with college kids having nothing to do, and lack of entertainment at home and outside to keep the masses amused? These liberals are digging this country's grave deeper and deeper smh.

 

[Birdstrike]

Funny how if you lock down an entire population against their will, seize their private property, and destroy their livelihoods they will revolt and break stuff.

I wonder how much of the $1,000 checks from taxpayers they got a few weeks ago went to pay for their bricks, molotov cocktails, and gas money so they can loot Adidas, Apple and Rolex stores. How many more fires, broken windows and assaults before it brings George Floyd back and makes cops nicer?

 

[GeneralVeers]

I think many of us on here predicted riots during the Summer if the lockdowns continued. It was an easily foreseeable conclusion to this tragic case of mass hysteria.

I'm just thankful LVMPD is great at dealing with crowds and so far has dispersed most of the protests before they could reach critical mass.

 

[Birdstrike]

I think many of us on here predicted riots during the Summer if the lockdowns continued. It was an easily foreseeable conclusion to this tragic case of mass hysteria.

I'm just thankful LVMPD is great at dealing with crowds and so far has dispersed most of the protests before they could reach critical mass.

You're lucky you have a mayor that's taken responsibility and ordered law enforcement to act to protect your safety, property and community. In many locations (mostly) Democrat mayors and governors have given orders to law enforcement to step aside and let rioters burn, smash, assault and destroy. It's not by accident. It's not due to weakness. It's strategic decision made in coordination. They want to bait Trump into declaring martial law and sending in the military so they can blame him when rioters get hurt, like Nixon and Kent State. Of course, any rioter once harmed suddenly becomes a "Law abiding, gentle soul who only cared about helping children and orphaned kittens, and going to Harvard some day, until he was killed by the fascist dictator in the White House."

 

[BoardingDoc]

You're lucky you have a mayor that's taken responsibility and ordered law enforcement to act to protect your safety, property and community. In many locations (mostly) Democrat mayors and governors have given orders to law enforcement to step aside and let rioters burn, smash, assault and destroy. It's not by accident. It's not due to weakness. It's strategic decision made in coordination. They want to bait Trump into declaring martial law and sending in the military so they can blame him when rioters get hurt, like Nixon and Kent State. Of course, any rioter once harmed suddenly becomes a "Law abiding, gentle soul who only cared about helping children and orphaned kittens, and going to Harvard some day, until he was killed by the fascist dictator in the White House."

We can talk about the pros and cons of various law enforcement strategies for preventing harm to both people and property while still allowing for people to protest, but claiming that democratic leaders are intentionally trying to allow riots to spread in their city for the sake of hurting the president's reputation is something I would expect to hear from someone wearing a tinfoil hat.

While we don't always align in political opinions, you frequently bring an interesting or insightful counterpoint to arguments made by some of the more left leaning posters on this forum.

This is not one of those moments.

 

[Rekt]

We can talk about the pros and cons of various law enforcement strategies for preventing harm to both people and property while still allowing for people to protest, but claiming that democratic leaders are intentionally trying to allow riots to spread in their city for the sake of hurting the president's reputation is something I would expect to hear from someone wearing a tinfoil hat.

While we don't always align in political opinions, you frequently bring an interesting or insightful counterpoint to arguments made by some of the more left leaning posters on this forum.

This is not one of those moments.

I don't think it's entirely absurd. It's very obvious to see the stark contrast between how red states handled it. Immediate curfews with with national guard deployment. Although they did have a head start since riots started later. I think it's more along the lines of another black person dying by the cops right now would blow the tops off so they're just letting them loot everything. The orange man does enough to hurt his own reputation.

 

[Birdstrike]

We can talk about the pros and cons of various law enforcement strategies for preventing harm to both people and property while still allowing for people to protest, but claiming that democratic leaders are intentionally trying to allow riots to spread in their city for the sake of hurting the president's reputation is something I would expect to hear from someone wearing a tinfoil hat.

While we don't always align in political opinions, you frequently bring an interesting or insightful counterpoint to arguments made by some of the more left leaning posters on this forum.

This is not one of those moments.

You're right. I should not have attempted to read minds or assume motives without evidence. I cannot assume these (mostly Democrat) mayors & governors are telling police & national guard to allow rioting for self-serving political reasons. It is much more likely that they are allowing the property and safety of their law abiding citizens to be put at risk due to common, everyday negligence, incompetence and inexcusable stupidity.

Rioting, arson & looting of your home & community doesn't bring George Floyd back and make cops nicer. It only works when it's someone else's home & workplace.

 

[GeneralVeers]

There should never be ANY tolerance for violence and property destruction regardless of the motivation or perceived greivance.

I'm all for civil disobedience, as you all know I don't trust government. That means refusing to comply with unconstitutional and arbitrary orders like business seizures, fines for not having masks, and "shelter in place" orders. However government has a social obligation to stop all violence by any means necessary.

 

[VA Hopeful Dr]

I don't think it's entirely absurd. It's very obvious to see the stark contrast between how red states handled it. Immediate curfews with with national guard deployment. Although they did have a head start since riots started later. I think it's more along the lines of another black person dying by the cops right now would blow the tops off so they're just letting them loot everything. The orange man does enough to hurt his own reputation.

I'm inclined to agree that its just different political calculations. Red states are more likely to view restoring order by whatever means favorably while that same approach in blue states is likely to make things worse.

 

[Birdstrike]

WE'RE ITALY IN TWO WEEKS

“In reality, the virus clinically no longer exists in Italy,” said Alberto Zangrillo, the head of the San Raffaele Hospital in Milan in the northern region of Lombardy, which has borne the brunt of Italy’s coronavirus contagion.

“The swabs that were performed over the last 10 days showed a viral load in quantitative terms that was absolutely infinitesimal compared to the ones carried out a month or two months ago,” he told RAI television.

 

[RoyBasch]

“In reality, the virus clinically no longer exists in Italy,” said Alberto Zangrillo, the head of the San Raffaele Hospital in Milan in the northern region of Lombardy, which has borne the brunt of Italy’s coronavirus contagion.

“The swabs that were performed over the last 10 days showed a viral load in quantitative terms that was absolutely infinitesimal compared to the ones carried out a month or two months ago,” he told RAI television.

I don't disagree with you that there are some encouraging markers (rolling averages down trending in the United States, my own hospital with very low percentage positives in asymptomatic patients scheduled for procedures, and symptomatic patients presenting for testing despite large increase in testing over the last several weeks).

Why do you think this is the case? Seasonality of the virus? Only a certain portion of population susceptible and now infected/recovered/dead?

 

[Birdstrike]

I don't disagree with you that there are some encouraging markers (rolling averages down trending in the United States, my own hospital with very low percentage positives in asymptomatic patients scheduled for procedures, and symptomatic patients presenting for testing despite large increase in testing over the last several weeks).

Why do you think this is the case? Seasonality of the virus? Only a certain portion of population susceptible and now infected/recovered/dead?

Probably a little bit of each of those. And because it's the natural course of all viruses to follow a logistic pattern in populations, not exponential pattern, which I've been saying since very early in this thread. Despite the fact that I was outnumber probably 10,000 to 1 on this point, here on this thread and throughout media, it was right then and it's right now.

Some of the reasons viruses level off like this are known, some aren't. But they don't grow exponentially. That's a myth. Why so many people (who should know better) got suckered into quoting this like parrots, I don't know.

 

[deleted109597]

While there is a component of politics to this, if we could keep it from getting too partisan I and others would appreciate it.
I do agree with each of you in part, but this frankly isn't the place.

 

[alpinism]

Large scale rioting and looting throughout manhattan tonight.

Most of the shops on fifth avenue have been completely destroyed.

 

[GeneralVeers]

Large scale rioting and looting throughout manhattan tonight.

Most of the shops on fifth avenue have been completely destroyed.

Well, you get what you vote for.

 

[dadaddadaBATMAN]

Most young people aren't dying of COVID

Its actually the opposite of what you just said

...I don’t disagree. I specifically was responding to question about why 50,000 deaths mattered. It was an estimate based on birdstrikes mortality rate in those under 50 blindly extrapolated to 50% of the population. If 50,000 people under 50 die from this, that matters to me because of the relative youth of those people.

We have already more than doubled that with predominately elderly patients. While their lives are still important, there’s no question that the qol years lost is way less in that population. Anyway, carry on, the estimate was (like most estimates thus far) based on bs.

 

[Birdstrike]

...I don’t disagree. I specifically was responding to question about why 50,000 deaths mattered. It was an estimate based on birdstrikes mortality rate in those under 50 blindly extrapolated to 50% of the population. If 50,000 people under 50 die from this, that matters to me because of the relative youth of those people.

We have already more than doubled that with predominately elderly patients. While their lives are still important, there’s no question that the qol years lost is way less in that population. Anyway, carry on, the estimate was (like most estimates thus far) based on bs.

No one ever said 50,000 deaths from anything, were good. It's not good. Everyone agrees with that and that's not in debate.

The debate is about what we can do about it at this point. Other than treating COVID-19 patients one at a time, wearing PPE when appropriate and frequent hand washing as life goes on, I'm not sure what else we can do at this point. Continue lock-downs without a progression to reopening is a tiny fringe minority opinion at this point, that no one important is currently taking seriously. That does involve some risk which makes some people very anxious. I've made peace with it as something I have little if any control over.

 

[turkeyjerky]

Well, you get what you vote for.

A government that has systematically dismantled social protections and whatever semblence of a safety net that was once present, in favor of tax cuts directed at multinational corporations and the richest .1% of people, resulting in a profoundly angry and desperate underclass who feel they have nothing left to lose?

 

[MediMike]

A government that has systematically dismantled social protections and whatever semblence of a safety net that was once present, in favor of tax cuts directed at multinational corporations and the richest .1% of people, resulting in a profoundly angry and desperate underclass who feel they have nothing left to lose?

Coupled with a deeply entrenched system of institutional racism, socioeconomic repression and state endorsed violence?

 

[GeneralVeers]

Coupled with a deeply entrenched system of institutional racism, socioeconomic repression and state endorsed violence?

Then you guys should have all voted for Bernie. Dissatisfaction with the current socio-economic system doesn't justify destruction of minority-owned private property, theft, injuring and murdering non-involved civilians and murder. We had a metro officer in Vegas shot in the head randomly last night and is on life support. Will likely be a murder case.

As I said, you get what you vote for. If you want specific structural things changed in society, then organize, get people to the polls and vote for change. That being said, we have the most prosperous society in the history of the world, and world poverty levels are at an all-time low and dropping, so I'm not certain what structural reforms would do much to improve this faster.

 

[GeneralVeers]

All great reasons to loot, murder, injure, assault and burn down business and houses right?

I'm not sure why the media is enabling the violent ones. As far as I can tell there are two groups: 1. The legitimate (if incoherent) peaceful protestors during the day who obey the law. 2. The violent anarchist groups, who come out at night and are just there to break stuff/steal and not protest.

We should support the former, and imprison the latter.

 

[NYEMMED]

I'm not sure why the media is enabling the violent ones. As far as I can tell there are two groups: 1. The legitimate (if incoherent) peaceful protestors during the day who obey the law. 2. The violent anarchist groups, who come out at night and are just there to break stuff/steal and not protest.

We should support the former, and imprison the latter.

Absolutely, The peaceful protesters have every right to be out there and to be heard. All the crime however, also needs to stop. However, they are hiding within the peaceful protest crowds.

 

[GeneralVeers]

Absolutely, The peaceful protesters have every right to be out there and to be heard. All the crime however, also needs to stop. However, they are hiding within the peaceful protest crowds.

I actually agree with the curfews for large groups for this problem (whereas as a curfew was nonsensical for a virus). We know that the vast majority of crimes begin under the cover of dark. In problem cities, they can just put in an after dark curfew for downtown gatherings of large groups. During the day they can protest peacefully and protect the 1st Amendment at the same time.

 

[Birdstrike]

Absolutely, The peaceful protesters have every right to be out there and to be heard. All the crime however, also needs to stop. However, they are hiding within the peaceful protest crowds.

It's amazing how the need for strict lockdowns and social distancing was, "All about science & not political." Then, when a second week of burning churches and low income housing, driving over cops, and looting minority owned businesses was needed to make a political point, "Virus precautions be damned." It proves the political motives replaces any science long ago.

As far as any peaceful protester still wanting to "be heard," they need to realize one very important thing. After the tragic George Floyd video came out, it was a rare instance where 100% of people were on their side. I don't think I heard a single person, even the most callous law-and-order types, side with the cop. But ever since the peaceful protests were hijacked by the rioters, the "peaceful protesters," who had 100% of everyone on their side, are losing people by the millions every additional day this goes on. Every additional day they go out and allow the rioters to "hide within the peaceful crowds," they lose more.

Because it's no secret now. It doesn't take a genius to know that after a week of rioting, looting, assault and arson coming out from "hiding from within your peaceful crowds," that it's happening. And once that becomes obvious, which was about 6 or 7 days ago, and you continue to proceed as is, you are now knowingly harboring rioters, and become one with them.

The "peaceful protesters" are rapidly progressing from having 100% of people on their side at the beginning of this, to very close to 0%, if it goes on much longer.

Within the first 24 hours of the video coming out, it had the potential to move the issues of race relations and police brutality forward a generation, if handled properly by the leaders of the movement. As it's happened since then, it's more likely to set both issues back 20 years. That's what happened with the Rodney King riots 20 years ago, and here we are today.