How long should the lock down last?

[MHYDE]

How are we supposed to negotiate with that? Buy them masks?

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Members don't see this ad.

 

[Birdstrike]

Overhead today: "I can take my kids to a restaurant, a bouncy house, day care, a hotel, resort, or a crowded Walmart, but I can't take my kids to school?"

 

[Birdstrike]

You seem to want them to be making a sensible argument they aren’t actually making. Fairfax teachers have said in black and white that they won’t go back to work (but will continue to expect a paycheck) until a vaccine is deployed. They are not requesting “investments”. They are in fact making demands that nobody else had made. Can you see how that is special treatment?

The American Academy of Pediatrics recommendation is going to be a death-blow to the teachers demands. They usually lead with "But we're doing it for the children," and that's now lost. I forwarded that along the the above back-to-school experience from Europe to my Governor, local school board rep and superintendent. I doubt I'll hear back from the governor's office but the response from the latter two, was surprisingly positive. Neither was aware of the AAP press release and were forwarding it to the state task force making these decisions.

 

[xaelia]

Can you explain "overshoot"? I haven't heard this before.

Here you go:

 

[miacomet]

The American Academy of Pediatrics recommendation is going to be a death-blow to the teachers demands. They usually lead with "But we're doing it for the children," and that's now lost. I forwarded that along the the above back-to-school experience from Europe to my Governor, local school board rep and superintendent. I doubt I'll hear back from the governor's office but the response from the latter two, was surprisingly positive. Neither was aware of the AAP press release and were forwarding it to the state task force making these decisions.

That seems like a positive move.

I still have my doubts as to how many teachers will return to school; it's just a poorly paid, stressful job, and my guess is some may not return. Only time will tell. I agree the alternating day schedule makes no sense. I don't understand who came up with that, or why.

 

[MHYDE]

I have been emailing back and forth with a reasonably open-minded school board member here, who finished his last email with: “For all this, there is NO one who believes distant learning, or 'hybrid' instruction is and will be anything but a disaster.” Yet they are moving forward with it.

At least I know what quote I’ll put on my mailer when I run against him in November.

 

[CheGuevaraMD]

I've heard a few counties reclosing (4 out of 200+ in TX) or states pausing their reopenings, but I haven't heard entire states re-imposing stay-at-home orders? Which states have?

AZ just re-closed bars, gyms, movie theaters, and water parks for at least 30 days. Bars were just re-closed in 7 counties in CA, including LA. Stay-at-home orders were reimposed in 1 CA county.

Things are predictably trending backwards due to re-opening too quickly.

 

[Birdstrike]

I honestly think the state governments and school boards are just mainly worried about the inevitable BS lawsuits they know will come from people that will claim "work gave them COVID" and sue to fleece the deep pockets of state governments. If it wasn't for that, I don't think they'd even be dragging their feet on any of this. They know these teachers aren't staying home 24/7 like hermits refusing to step outside and that if they can go to the grocery store, hair salon and restaurants, they can go to work.

 

[Birdstrike]

AZ just re-closed bars, gyms, movie theaters, and water parks for at least 30 days. Bars were just re-closed in 7 counties in CA, including LA. Stay-at-home orders were reimposed in 1 CA county.

Yes, local, problem-focused responses in limited areas that need them. Sounds appropriate to me.

 

[CheGuevaraMD]

Yes, local, problem-focused responses in limited areas that need them. Sounds appropriate to me.

??

Responses were always local, even if media coverage wasn't. You're tilting at windmills here.

 

[deleted1005514]

The American Academy of Pediatrics recommendation is going to be a death-blow to the teachers demands. They usually lead with "But we're doing it for the children," and that's now lost. I forwarded that along the the above back-to-school experience from Europe to my Governor, local school board rep and superintendent. I doubt I'll hear back from the governor's office but the response from the latter two, was surprisingly positive. Neither was aware of the AAP press release and were forwarding it to the state task force making these decisions.

I was planning on doing this tomorrow as well. Our school board is calling every parent in the county and doing a survey of their opinion on our kids going back. I’m going to email the article to the board, the principals and the governor.

 

[Birdstrike]

I still have my doubts as to how many teachers will return to school; it's just a poorly paid, stressful job, and my guess is some may not return.

I know a thing or two about not returning to poorly paid, stressful jobs .

 

[Birdstrike]

You're tilting at windmills here.

(....adding skill to resume as we... speak...)

 

[Birdstrike]

I was planning on doing this tomorrow as well. Our school board is calling every parent in the county and doing a survey of their opinion on our kids going back. I’m going to email the article to the board, the principals and the governor.

Don't forget the one from Europe that shows teachers are incredibly low risk. I linked it a few pages up.

 

[Birdstrike]

AZ just re-closed bars, and water parks for at least 30 days. Bars were just re-closed in 7 counties in CA,

May save a few livers, drunk driving deaths and drownings.

 

[MixedAnimals77]

Things are predictably trending backwards due to re-opening too quickly.

How many of these cases could be linked back to protests though?

 

[Siggy]

How many of these cases could be linked back to protests though?

Not that many...

COVID-19 has not surged in cities with big protests, but it has in states that reopened early. Here are some possible reasons.

Were protesters somehow protected from COVID-19 by being outside? Probably not.

www.inquirer.com

...on the other hand here's at least 85 linked to a single bar.

85 people connected to Michigan bar test positive for coronavirus

The Ingham County Health Department is asking anyone who visited Harper's Restaurant & Brewpub, outside of Michigan State University, between June 12-20 to self-quarantine.

www.nbcnews.com

 

[MixedAnimals77]

Not that many...

COVID-19 has not surged in cities with big protests, but it has in states that reopened early. Here are some possible reasons.

Were protesters somehow protected from COVID-19 by being outside? Probably not.

www.inquirer.com

...on the other hand here's at least 85 linked to a single bar.

85 people connected to Michigan bar test positive for coronavirus

The Ingham County Health Department is asking anyone who visited Harper's Restaurant & Brewpub, outside of Michigan State University, between June 12-20 to self-quarantine.

www.nbcnews.com

The bar&club incidents shouldn't come as any suprise though based on S. Korean information.

 

[Birdstrike]

How many of these cases could be linked back to protests though?

I don’t know, MixedAnimals. I just know what I’ve been told. Which is, unless you’re an ignorant science denier, you’d know mass gatherings in support of Democrat causes, like rioting, eliminating police, arson, and virtue signaling to feel better about yourself, don’t spread the virus. Not only do they not spread it, they literally bend the curve to such an extent the virus stops spreading so much it goes off the news cycle for days at a time. Once such enlightened activities stop, the virus surges again like a wildfire, and back onto your screens.

 

[Rekt]

AZ just re-closed bars, gyms, movie theaters, and water parks for at least 30 days. Bars were just re-closed in 7 counties in CA, including LA. Stay-at-home orders were reimposed in 1 CA county.

Things are predictably trending backwards due to re-opening too quickly.

It's honestly shocking how ****ing dumb people are. I can't believe people think this does anything. This is literally going to do nothing. Hell, it might even increase mortality. Let's close gyms so people get fatter and increase their risk. They also closed tubing at rivers. What a joke.

 

[Birdstrike]

It's honestly shocking how ****ing dumb people are. I can't believe people think this does anything. This is literally going to do nothing. Hell, it might even increase mortality. Let's close gyms so people get fatter and increase their risk. They also closed tubing at rivers. What a joke.

People are still deluding themselves into thinking shutdowns cure Coronavirus.

 

[miacomet]

The comments on this article are priceless in their honesty, and also show the issues teachers are facing. @Birdstrike may be comfortable with teaching in a crowded classroom, but many of these folks are not: Opinion | Remote School Is a Nightmare. Few in Power Care.

The (current) CDC guidelines recommend no more than 10 students per class; what school can afford to do that? Or has enough space? And what school will go against the guidelines?

 

[xaelia]

So ... AZ ... it’s not just that deaths lag hospitalizations lag cases - they also lag *reporting*.

The infrastructure is geared to set us up the bomb.

 

[VA Hopeful Dr]

It's honestly shocking how ****ing dumb people are. I can't believe people think this does anything. This is literally going to do nothing. Hell, it might even increase mortality. Let's close gyms so people get fatter and increase their risk. They also closed tubing at rivers. What a joke.

I feel pretty confident saying that it will do more than "literally nothing".

I mean, we have pretty good data that bars are hotspots for this. Not sure about gyms, but I could see them being a problem for all the obvious reasons.

Outdoors stuff should be OK if kept from getting insanely crowded so closing all of that probably is overkill.

 

[VA Hopeful Dr]

People are still deluding themselves into thinking shutdowns cure Coronavirus.

I'm sure some are, but I think most of us are still mainly worried about hospital capacity.

Our state, for instance, now was 1 in 7 beds being used by COVID patients. That's not a huge issue in itself. But we're still setting daily records for new cases. And this is summer, the historically lowest bed occupancy time of year in general. If this keeps up, flu season is going to be a huge problem.

 

[Rekt]

I'm sure some are, but I think most of us are still mainly worried about hospital capacity.

Our state, for instance, now was 1 in 7 beds being used by COVID patients. That's not a huge issue in itself. But we're still setting daily records for new cases. And this is summer, the historically lowest bed occupancy time of year in general. If this keeps up, flu season is going to be a huge problem.

So just keep shutting down everything q2mo? For how long? Forever? Vaccine? If it even works? As soon as Texas/AZ open back up (and whatever other states decide to arbitrarily close random things to save face) cases will go right back up. So essentially all we're left with is Walmart and Amazon because nothing else can survive that.

 

[VA Hopeful Dr]

So just keep shutting down everything q2mo? For how long? Forever? Vaccine? If it even works? As soon as Texas/AZ open back up (and whatever other states decide to arbitrarily close random things to save face) cases will go right back up. So essentially all we're left with is Walmart and Amazon because nothing else can survive that.

Being a bit hysterical aren't you?

You must have been missing the parts for the last 2 months where I've been saying we need to start opening things back up.

But, we can also use some common sense with this. We're starting to get an idea of specific areas that cause more problems than others. Have plans in place for those if hospitals start getting overwhelmed. Doesn't have to be a shutdown. Require masks indoors since we know that makes a big difference.

With a little sense we can keep this manageable.

 

[deleted1005514]

The comments on this article are priceless in their honesty, and also show the issues teachers are facing. @Birdstrike may be comfortable with teaching in a crowded classroom, but many of these folks are not: Opinion | Remote School Is a Nightmare. Few in Power Care.

The (current) CDC guidelines recommend no more than 10 students per class; what school can afford to do that? Or has enough space? And what school will go against the guidelines?

The CDC and the AAP need to get together an issue a joint statement. Right now they’re saying two different things.

 

[Birdstrike]

I'm sure some are, but I think most of us are still mainly worried about hospital capacity.

Our state, for instance, now was 1 in 7 beds being used by COVID patients. That's not a huge issue in itself. But we're still setting daily records for new cases. And this is summer, the historically lowest bed occupancy time of year in general. If this keeps up, flu season is going to be a huge problem.

On the other hand, do we want to go into flu season with low community immunity? Think about that. Lockdown all summer and fall and get a big spike in Dec/Jan when pandemic flu hits, due to lack of COVID immunity? Or go into flu season with a portion of the community (likely) immune?

If we get a vaccine miraculously fast, it won’t matter. But if we don’t, could delaying the inevitable back fire?

 

[VA Hopeful Dr]

On the other hand, do we want to go into flu season with low community immunity? Think about that. Lockdown all summer and fall and get a big spike in Dec/Jan when pandemic flu hits, due to lack of COVID immunity? Or go into flu season with a portion of the community (likely) immune?

If we get a vaccine miraculously fast, it won’t matter. But if we don’t, could delaying the inevitable back fire?

I've been using a similar argument to really push flu/pneumonia shots.

Its infuriating how many people are still refusing them.

But to your actual point, I think you're missing my point. All I care about from a large scale perspective is not running out of ICU beds. That's why I don't care about the raw numbers by themselves and I pay close attention to both my hospital's and our state's bed reports.

 

[Birdstrike]

I've been using a similar argument to really push flu/pneumonia shots.

Its infuriating how many people are still refusing them.

But to your actual point, I think you're missing my point. All I care about from a large scale perspective is not running out of ICU beds. That's why I don't care about the raw numbers by themselves and I pay close attention to both my hospital's and our state's bed reports.

I agree, watching ICU bed capacity is the most important thing to look at and preserve. Hospitalization information is also much harder to find.

 

[miacomet]

The CDC and the AAP need to get together an issue a joint statement. Right now they’re saying two different things.

That would be a challenge. The CDC is concerned with everyone, the AAP is only concerned with children.

 

[deleted1005514]

That would be a challenge. The CDC is concerned with everyone, the AAP is only concerned with children.

The CDC seems to be as conservative as possible (to the detriment of practical implementation), while the AAP guidelines seem much more realistic to attain.

 

[TwoHighways]

That would be a challenge. The CDC is concerned with everyone, the AAP is only concerned with children.

Are they though? We have an obesity/metabolic disease pandemic and in my estimation, very little has been done to address the real elephant in the room (it ain’t Covid-19).

 

[Birdstrike]

That would be a challenge. The CDC is concerned with everyone, the AAP is only concerned with children.

The CDC is concerned with health but not economics or other equally matters equally as important as health. If it was up to the CDC we'd have been on permanent lock-down since March until we get a vaccine, while they ignore people's incomes going to zero, getting evicted, growing homelessness, bread lines and suicides. One case of virus for the CDC is too many, and the statistics on everything else? Well, they don't look at them, because it's not their job to consider non-health matters. The CDC also happens to continue to get paid during the lock-downs they recommend, while everyone else goes bankrupt.

 

[Birdstrike]

Let me make this simple for y'all.

Against lock-down: Those who stop getting paid during lock-downs.
Pro lock-down: Those who continue to get paid to work during lock-downs.
Strongly pro lock-down: Those who get paid to stay home during lock-downs.

 

[Birdstrike]

So ... AZ ... it’s not just that deaths lag hospitalizations lag cases - they also lag *reporting*.

The infrastructure is geared to set us up the bomb.

I don't see any matching of case curves to death curves. And where are the other states? You said sun belt "states."

Maybe you were replying to someone else on a different question, I don't know.

...Sun belt states look like their deaths are starting to curve upwards to match their cases...

 

[MediMike]

Let me make this simple for y'all.

Against lock-down: Those who stop getting paid during lock-downs.
Pro lock-down: Those who continue to get paid to work during lock-downs.
Strongly pro lock-down: Those who get paid to stay home during lock-downs.

Man, doesn't it make life so much easier to just box everyone into either 2-3 camps? You're either s strong brave independently thinking individual (who is probably stunningly good looking) or you're a cowardly "panic porn" craving dirtbag who wants to get paid to sit on their literal a$$.

Maybe lay down that broad brush my man. It's that mentality which leads to the level of divisiveness we've got these days.

My wife and I both teach on the side and we would kill to be back instructing in person. As would a large number of our colleagues.

 

[Birdstrike]

Anyone work in Texas or heard of Complete Care free standing EDs?

Here’s an email from their Managing Partner, John Braxton Neiman, to reporter Alex Berenson ( ‪@AlexBerenson‬ on Twitter) about what he sees going on in Texas, with COVID. He says the reality may be very different than what you’re seeing and reading. I don't know if he's right or not. You decide. It's worth reading until the end.

 

[southerndoc]

Last week I went several shifts without seeing a single COVID patient. Sunday night I saw 3 or 4 positive tests (rapid tests) and another 3-4 that were possible cases pending testing. Last night, I saw at least 7 patients with positive rapid tests and another 4-5 that were likely.

Cases are starting to rise rapidly in my area... not looking forward to the second wave. This one is more steep than the first.

 

[Birdstrike]

Last week I went several shifts without seeing a single COVID patient. Sunday night I saw 3 or 4 positive tests (rapid tests) and another 3-4 that were possible cases pending testing. Last night, I saw at least 7 patients with positive rapid tests and another 4-5 that were likely.

Of the confirmed positives, what were the ages, acuity levels and DNR status?

 

[Siggy]

Man, doesn't it make life so much easier to just box everyone into either 2-3 camps? You're either s strong brave independently thinking individual (who is probably stunningly good looking) or you're a cowardly "panic porn" craving dirtbag who wants to get paid to sit on their literal a$$.

Maybe lay down that broad brush my man. It's that mentality which leads to the level of divisiveness we've got these days.

My wife and I both teach on the side and we would kill to be back instructing in person. As would a large number of our colleagues.

That's basically his view. Best thing that happened was when he reminded me that I could simply mute him and then I wouldn't have to constantly refute his points.

Every once in a while I'll look at his posts and it reaffirms that I did the right thing... like when he's posting length of stay information from an urgent care doc who is treating mild COVID with steroids. It reminds me of those 2 EM docs from California who complained that the lock down was ruining their free standing ED.

ACEP-AAEM Joint Statement on Physician Misinformation

The American College of Emergency Physicians (ACEP) and the American Academy of Emergency Medicine (AAEM) jointly and emphatically condemn the recent opinions released by Dr. Daniel Erickson and Dr. Artin Massihi. These reckless and untested musings do not speak for medical societies and are...

www.acep.org

 

[Birdstrike]

This guy needs to be de-platformed, doxed, fired, imprisoned, and possibly even executed.

Who me? If so, I need to know, because I'll have to endorse Joe Biden for my own safety.

 

[MediMike]

Anyone work in Texas or heard of Complete Care free standing EDs?

Here’s an email from their Managing Partner, John Braxton Neiman, to reporter Alex Berenson ( ‪@AlexBerenson‬ on Twitter) about what he sees going on in Texas, with COVID. He says the reality may be very different than what you’re seeing and reading. I don't know if he's right or not. You decide. It's worth reading until the end.

I mean, other than what he's saying has showed up to his own FSED/UC everything is hearsay.

Hopefully he's right and everyone is a liar and things aren't that bad! Regardless of your views on a significant portion of the population I think the vast majority of folks would like to see people not dying from this.

 

[Birdstrike]

I mean, other than what he's saying has showed up to his own FSED/UC everything is hearsay.

It's a credible named source, going on record for a reporter. How is that "hearsay," but when other reporters report information from a source it's "news"?

 

[Birdstrike]

Hopefully he's right and everyone is a liar and things aren't that bad!

I didn't read anywhere in his email saying, "Everyone is a liar." I interpreted what he was saying as simply giving his perspective on what he's seeing as a source to a reporter, like any other source that tells a report about something he saw that happened.

I think the vast majority of folks would like to see people not dying from this.

Then how come they get mad when someone posts raw data, not their opinion but raw data, showing less Americans have been dying from it every week for the past 10 weeks?

 

[bravotwozero]

So, something went down between a mysterious meeting of all the hospital CEOs from the Texas Medical Center, and the governor, Greg Abbott. An article written in the Houston chronicle mentioned that Abbott, reportedly was not happy about hospital CEOs saying that their icus are filling up with COVID patients. In response, he also stated the he is going to shut down elective procedures, to keep more beds open. It did have a loophole though, which was 'if hospitals don't have enough capacity???' And man, the hospital ceos cling to that loophole for dear life, to maintain their cash cow. We started getting emails from Hospital brass about how statements were 'misinterpreted', that the hospital capacity is the same now as it was back in December, etc that what they really meant was that if we don't change our behavior now, then we will run out of capacity, etc.

Even more suspicious was the fact that the Texas Medical Center Website on COVID statistics wasn't updated for a few days, and they had a message on the website saying that some of the slides were 'inaccurate' and needed to be edited.

Almost as if there was some backroom power play between the Governor and the hospital executives. 'You want to shut things down, ok I'll cancel elective surgeries'. 'Noooo don't do that!'

 

[Siggy]

Who me? If so, I need to know, because I'll have to endorse Joe Biden for my own safety.

I'll take Biden dementia over Donald "White Power" Trump dementia.

 

[Birdstrike]

So, something went down between a mysterious meeting of all the hospital CEOs from the Texas Medical Center, and the governor, Greg Abbott. An article written in the Houston chronicle mentioned that Abbott, reportedly was not happy about hospital CEOs saying that their icus are filling up with COVID patients. In response, he also stated the he is going to shut down elective procedures, to keep more beds open. It did have a loophole though, which was 'if hospitals don't have enough capacity???' And man, the hospital ceos cling to that loophole for dear life, to maintain their cash cow. We started getting emails from Hospital brass about how statements were 'misinterpreted', that the hospital capacity is the same now as it was back in December, etc that what they really meant was that if we don't change our behavior now, then we will run out of capacity, etc.

Even more suspicious was the fact that the Texas Medical Center Website on COVID statistics wasn't updated for a few days, and they had a message on the website saying that some of the slides were 'inaccurate' and needed to be edited.

Almost as if there was some backroom power play between the Governor and the hospital executives. 'You want to shut things down, ok I'll cancel elective surgeries'. 'Noooo don't do that!'

Let me make sure I follow. You’re saying the hospitals were allegedly inflating ICU numbers and when threatened with a possible forced shutdown of elective surgeries by the Governor, to open up beds, they then changed the numbers?

 

[bravotwozero]

Let me make sure I follow. You’re saying the hospitals were allegedly inflating ICU numbers and when threatened with a possible forced shutdown of elective surgeries by the Governor, to open up beds, they then changed the numbers?

Honestly, I don't know what to make of it. ICU beds have been reaching capacity in the houston area, most of it isn't covid, but a sizable number. I know we've had ICU patients board in our ED for a while. But then not reporting the numbers, and backtracking on prior statements raises suspicions..