Theoretically, the programs interview 10 applicants for each position (if they have 2 pos, they invite 20, 4 pos they invite 40, etc...). So your chances there will be 10% for each iv..

If you do the maths, 10 iv should increase your odds to 100%, therefore guarantee you the match. Unless your interview really sucked and the program decided not to rank you..

This is completely wrong. I have devised a way to estimate your chance of matching. For example, lets just say you have 5 interviews. You have to determine your chance of not matching in each interview in each program, and multiply it together. Then your results will be your chances of not matching. Take (1 - chance of not matching) is yr chance of matching.

For example:

1st program: Interview 60 people for 4 spots, but traditionally goes to 20 on their rank list to fill the 4 spots. Just by statistics alone, you have 1/3 (20/60) in matching, 0r 2/3 (0.67) chance of not matching

2nd program: Interview 40 people for 4 spots, traditionally goes to 20 on their rank list, so you have a 50% chance of matching, or 50% chance of not matching

3rd program: Interviews 30 for 2 spots, traditionally goes to 15 on their rank list, BUT, this program, you have some inside information that they will rank you in top 10. So yr chances are definately > 50% of matching, but difficult to say how much more, but just for completion sake, I estimate that I have 60% chance of matching here, hence 40% of not matching

4th program: Interviews 50 for 5 spots, traditionally goes to 30 positions, BUT, this program you have some inside information, and people tell you your chances are not good, that they will rank you last. So just say, you have 5% of matching here (maybe they exhaust all their rank list this year), or 95% of not matching here

5th program: Interviews 100 for 20 spots, but got inside information, they think you're an idiot, and they will not be ranking you. 100% chance of not matching.

Taking all into account. 0.67 x 0.50 x 0.40 x 0.95 x 1 = 0.13

Therefore, you have 13% chance of not matching, or 87% chance of matching given the scenario above. This is how it works. It does not matter how you rank the above program (i.e. what program is #1, or last), as long as you rank them all, your chances of matching in anywhere is the same, but where you end up may differ.

Now take for example, you have a 6th interview, and they rank you #1, and it does not matter where you rank them, as long as you rank them on the ROL. So now, for this 5th interview, you have 100% chance of matching, 0% chance of not matching. If you throw it into the calculation

0.67 x 0.50 x 0.40 x 0.95 x 1 x 0 = 0

Congratulations, you have 0% chance of not matching, hence 100% chance of matching.

Of course for this to be accurate, you have to give yourself an honest assessment, where do you think the program will rank you on the rank list. In the above poster's example of 2 positions and invite 20, your chance of matching here given an interview is not 10%, it depends on how far the rank list that program goes. Hope this makes sense.