How many programs to match?

[breakdancerj]

I've read a lot of different recommendations about how many TY or PY programs you should interview at. I also clearly know that this number is variable and a lot depends on the individual. However, I also know that in many advanced specialties there is typically a "magic" number that if you get to, your odds of matching from a statistical standpoint approaches 100%. Unfortunately, my understanding is that Charting Outcomes of the Match stopped including Transitional Year programs in their report a while ago and Preliminary Programs I assume never were. With that said:

How many TY interviews do you think someone needs to attend to approach a 100% certainty of matching?

How many PY interviews do you think someone needs to attend to approach a 100% certainty of matching?

Assume an average interviewer, in an average location, at an average program of the types listed.

Even early in the process, I can see how complicated my schedule can become in addition to obvious time and expenses if I attend too many interviews. I'm sure I'm not the only one who could benefit from sound advice and wisdom of others have regarding these questions.

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[Law2Doc]

Magic number is an illusive and dangerous concept. If you are a great applicant with great interviewing skills one interview might be enough, if at the other extreme, you could do dozens and end up soaping. All I know is that every year on SDN there are always good applicants who match into competitive advanced things but end up having to soap for prelims. So to get to your "100% certainty" we are talking about a very very big number of interviews. Most people get to a "reasonably good shot" at say <10 and call it quits. I don't know where you heard that X number of interviews approaches near statistical certainty but its a bogus concept. There gets to be a point of diminishing returns certainly but that's really not the same as 100% likeliness at matching. There will be people in soap for prelims every year while people who interviewed at far fewer places matched.