Dana,
If you knew from other schools you applied, what your EFC (expected family contribution) is..then you can calculate Duke aid. If your state school used the need access form, then ask them if they had at least calculated your EFC by now. For instance, Pitt told me what my EFC, I called Duke, knowing that it would take a while to get my financial aid, and asked them how they calculate aid. They said they subtract the EFC from the cost of attending, and meet the remaining need with 60% grants and 40% loans (max unsub (8500) and the rest sub, i guess).
All in all, contact both schools. But from my experience Duke aid is usually better than state school aid. K? Hope to see in this fall.
Bebe