Someone making 200k per year
Some tax breaks from kids and some state income tax will approximately keep it about the same so let's just say 50k for argument's sake.
So now we are down to 150k.
The median house price (and most docs will buy over the median, but let's just say they don't) is about 250k and monthly payments including principle, interest and insurance could easily be $2000. 2k x 12 = 24k.
Down to 126k.
A couple of decent cars could easily cost $800 per month for payments and insurance. Food, gas, bills (cell phone, internet, tv, gas, elec, water, sewer, garbage), necessities and other expenses for you, your spouse and a couple kids can easily be $2700 per month. $3500 x 12 = 42k
Down to 84k.
Note that all this would buy only a very average lifestyle.
Experts say you should plan to spend about 10% of your income on unexpected expenses related to accidents, house repairs, medical bills, etc.
Down to 64k.
Average student loan amount is around 120k. Payments after deferring through residency would probably be around $750/mo, although this can vary DRASTICALLY. (My payments will be $650 on 140k, but half of my loans are at <3% interest) Anyways . . . 750 x 12 = 9000
Down to 55k
That's enough to buy a Corvette and a trip to Europe! Retirement is so far off anyways and I am sure I will find money to save later . . .
Investing 55k per year could still get you over 5 million easily in 30 years. Think you want some nicer stuff earlier? Buy a house twice as expensive, a couple more cars and the 15k you have left over per year will only be about 1.5 million after 30 years, but that 500k house you just paid off is probably worth 4 million now. Invest evenly in stocks and real estate. Bonds never hurt either . . . sometimes they break records . . . home run records. All my figures are using 7% rates.
Thanks to this thread, I made my future budget spreadsheet for when I finally become a doctor:
Repaying student loans (10y): 35k/year
350k House Mortgage (10y): 4k/month
1 Porsche and 1 Toyota Minivan (4y) (Don't like porsches, but it sounded nice for arguments sake): 1.2k/month
Roth IRA Max: 5k/year
30 day vacation for 2: 7k/year
Food, Gas, Clothes (I don't eat out every meal and my current food budget is $200, so food wouldn't be a big problem, and I only spend $40/month on gas with a 12y/o car, for me clothes would be the biggest part, but to be outrageous I'll go with 2k/month): 2k/month
After putting this and all the different specialties salaries adjusted for taxes (its a very complicated spreadsheet and uses the brackets, not 33% across the board) I came up with the following summary:
Wouldn't be able to afford this lifestyle, although they were very close:
FM
IM
Peds
Phychiatry
Easily afford this lifestyle:
All other specialties, except a few odd primary care ones (like urgent care)
However, I am paying off student loans and mortgage in 10, not 30 years (so I will still be 41-42y/o young when I finish paying for my education and house, 20 years ahead of most people).
You don't need a porsche, seriously if you want a nice car, go with BMW or Mercedes, a porsche makes it look like you hit your midlife crisis 10 years too early. You can settle for a nice Audi and only pay $600/month
350k is a decent house (in california) and in rural Nebraska and other places it would be one of the biggest in town
If you are the marrying type, factor in a wife, we'll say a relatively dumb looker who only earns 30k/year as a secretary somewhere. Now all specialties can afford my original budget (after taxes.) Of course if two FM's or peds get married, they will also easily afford the above budget.
Thanks to this thread, I have had to face my calculator, and to be honest, even for primary care, the future isn't too bad.
Also, if you figure in a 10% cut in physician salaries, the primary care specialties will have problems with this, but I think Primary care will stay fairly stagnant, and if salaries decrease drastically, they will probably affect specialties, who even with a 20% decrease in salary can afford the budget (except EM)