MD How to make a school list with GPA upward trend?

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2020VeryHopeful

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Hello, I am trying to figure out how to interpret my GPA in terms of competitiveness. Please let me know if my school list is too top heavy or is too long.

Personal Info: NY, white, traditional applicant.
School: Level 2 according to WedgeDawg
MCAT: 519
GPA: cGPA and sGPA are ~3.7 with trend 3.3-3.85-4.0 for each year.
Shadowing: 2 shadowing experiences, about 150 hours total.
Volunteering: Hospital and nonhospital related volunteer programs, about 300 hours total.
Research: Medical basic science research, a lot of hours. One fairly high impact middle author publication. One first author poster presentation at conference.
Letters: I think they should be pretty strong. From PI, physician I shadowed, and professor(s).

School List:
All 13 NY Schools.
Case Western
W Mich
Cincinatti
Umass
Upitt
USF
Duke
BU
USC
Brown
Ohio St
Jefferson
Emory
Tufts
Cal U
Temple
Quinnipiac

My main question is if I should look at my GPA as 3.7 at face value or should I pretend its slightly higher when picking schools?

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