It is probably difficult to tell just how competitive any given group of applicants is until ERAS has been submitted and received by programs. And even then, the programs receiving those applications are going to be the only ones privy to that information, not the applicants (at least not directly). Furthermore, I'm sure that while a given year may be generally more or less competitive than years past, there is likely to be significant heterogeneity among programs (i.e. some programs will get a lot of competitive applicants while others won't).
Even if path is 'a more competitive' choice this year, I doubt it will come very close at all to being as competitive as the other specialties that carry that label. Again, though, there will be large differences from program to program.
