You're welcome! I greatly appreciate the positive feedback 🙂
1) Yes, I definitely work with a fair number of students with low Step 1 scores. For people with low scores, the main issue is usually a combination of inactive learning and poor test-taking strategy. I have my students make flashcards based on their UW and NBME incorrects, and just by doing this their retention usually improves dramatically (they were previously just taking notes in FA for Step 1, which is very passive, and then for Step 2 just reading the explanations, which again is passive). Most need a little help with how to make effective cards (I have a fairly different approach from Yousmle, and make much more succinct cards). The second issue, test-taking strategy, is easy to teach some people and slightly more difficult for others, particularly those with low confidence (they are really hesitant to guess or use POE). But almost everyone gets better when you point out the systematic test-taking errors they're making. A lot of people consistently narrow down to the 2 most likely answers, but then often pick the wrong one. I show them how to make cards that train them to highlight the differences between these two answers, and that also helps. For some people, test-taking anxiety is actually the main issue, and for that I recommend a guided meditation app called Headspace.
2) For Step 2, I feel all the NBMEs under-shoot slightly for most, and dramatically for some, especially those at the high end of the curve. In my case, I got a 240 on NBME 8 days before the test, then 281 on the real thing. I probably wasn't trying my hardest on that practice test, but even if you account for that, that's a pretty crazy discrepancy. UWSA1 and UWSA2 tend to over-predict a little (and obviously there are always exceptions to this; it can over-predict a lot for people with severe test-taking anxiety). I usually feel comfortable with students taking an exam if their UWSA2 is around 10 points over their goal score.
3) I think many people can benefit from moving up tests (on the other hand, many people need to push them back but initially feel like they have to take the exam when they are not ready). If you're getting close to your goal on NBMEs, then you can be pretty comfortable moving up your exam. Maybe still give yourself a week so you don't make yourself panic, but I see too many people over-studying, then burning out and becoming too tired on the real deal. It's a long test, I had to take a double shot espresso during the break and still felt like I was going to fall asleep for most of the exam. Obviously, I'm very happy with my end result, but if I had been stubborn and not moved my test up, I would have been even more burnt out and probably done (relatively) worse on test day.