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IMG Match #'s

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Dramkinola

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I just happened to look at that stupid little "Fact Card" the ECFMG sends us everytime we apply for an exam that I usually use to cover my bedside glass of water. (Living in India makes you paranoid of wierd insects dropping into your beverages)
I've seen it before, but never really did the math...
If other people could recheck my numbers and tell me if I'm missing something, it would help, but here's how I see it...

Total IMG's Participating in the 2002 match ---- 6585
First Year Residents who are IMG's (2002-2003) ----6073

That left only 512 IMG's who didn't get a residency that year, either through the Match or the Post-Match Scramble...

And the card says that 52% of IMG's matched that year... but 92% were working as Interns! (6073 out of 6585)
That means 2649 post-match scrambled...

512 is a measly 8% of the IMG's going through the match that year...

***I picked that year because although the card had the match numbers for the following year's match (2003), it did not have the numbers for the number of IMG PGY-1 Interns in 2003-2004.... nor did it have this year's numbers...

Just thought I'd share that and see if it holds...
 
M

Miklos

I looked at the NRMP results for 2002.

If one takes only the active applicants for both USIMGs and FNIMGs
(this means one subtracts those that withdrew/were withdrawn and those who enter a null rank list) one comes up with the following figures

USIMG active (2029) + FNIMG active (4556) = 6585

You quote (I haven't seen it elsewhere) the number of IMG interns of that year to be 6073

I think that your conclusions do not take into account everything.

Let's look at the number of scramble postions available that year:
20,602 PGY1 positions were offered and 89.5% were filled through the match this means that 18,439 were filled.

To estimate the number of scramble positions available, we subtract the total offered through the match (20,602) from those filled (18,439) which equals 2,163 scramble positions available that year.

Therefore, it is highly improbable that 2,649 IMGs scrambled. Especially as we haven't accounted for the US Seniors who did not initially match, nor the other independent applicants who had to scramble.

So, where did the 2,649 IMGs who did not match, but gained internships come from?

1) Of those who listed a null rank list, many probably pre-matched and used this mechanism to avoid a match violation. Why else enter a null list, if you haven't been withdrawn? The other explanation is that some of these people did not get a single interview and thereby were forced to "target" the scramble.

Let's see the numbers: USIMGs w/ null rank list (682) + FNIMGs w/ null rank list (1,943) = Total of IMGs w/ null rank list 2,625

How many of those ended up pre-matching is a great question. I don't know the answer, nor do I know how to estimate this.

2) Those successfully participating in the post-match scramble. Thereby those that were active applicants, but did not match PLUS those who entered null rank lists because they didn't interview (successfully) and didn't pre-match.

We know the number of the first category = Unmatched PGY1 USIMG (937) + Unmatched PGY1 FNIMG (2,221) = 3,158 ; the second category is (again!) a mystery.

How many from this total got a position is unknown.

3) Those who withdrew. (Not those that were withdrawn!). For the same reason, some (though admittedly far fewer) were able to pre-match and withdraw. The overwhelming majority of this group, however, we can assume were forcibly withdrawn (didn't have requirements in hand to participate). Again, I don't know of a mechanism to estimate this.

So, I think that your conclusions are incorrect.

Miklos

NB My data comes from http://www.nrmp.org/res_match/data_tables.html
 

Skip Intro

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I think, whatever the reason, the point is that many of those who are ECFMG-certified who don't match, don't pre-match, or can't get a spot in the U.S. fall into one of the categories I outline on this thread.

I could attempt to boil the numbers, and maybe I will after next week, and try resolve and make sense with what you've got here, Miklos. But, I just don't have time right now (with Step 2 looming). Will try to get back to you...

-Skip
 

Dramkinola

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Thanks Miklos for replying...

See, I just got my numbers from the little "Fact Card" the ECFMG sends when you register to take one of the exams...

I guess you got your numbers from the NRMP website?
Because I don't understand why our numbers are different.

But you stated Pre-match candidates... if they withdrew from the match before it happened, they would not be included in these numbers because this was the number of candidates who actually went through the match...
those candidate would be withdrawn and wouldn't go through it...
I know you stated that number would be minimal, but I think they just don't exist in these figures I quoted.

So my question to you is... what percentage of IMG's who were eligible actually got a PGY-1 position?

Because for us, that's the bottom line.
Thanks, look forward to your reply.
Majid
 

Dramkinola

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Skip Intro said:
I think, whatever the reason, the point is that many of those who are ECFMG-certified who don't match, don't pre-match, or can't get a spot in the U.S. fall into one of the categories I outline on this thread.

I could attempt to boil the numbers, and maybe I will after next week, and try resolve and make sense with what you've got here, Miklos. But, I just don't have time right now (with Step 2 looming). Will try to get back to you...

-Skip

I agree with you skip... I really do think you would have to be one of those three candidate-classes... or you could be a very unlucky guy who needed an H-1 visa sponsor and for whatever reason didn't find a hospital willing to sponsor you....
But basically it seems that anyone who wants one, gets one...
 

BellKicker

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Skip Intro said:
I think, whatever the reason, the point is that many of those who are ECFMG-certified who don't match, don't pre-match, or can't get a spot in the U.S. fall into one of the categories I outline on this thread.

I could attempt to boil the numbers, and maybe I will after next week, and try resolve and make sense with what you've got here, Miklos. But, I just don't have time right now (with Step 2 looming). Will try to get back to you...

-Skip

I was going to say almost the same. I love dissecting numbers like these but with Step 2 a few weeks away.......

I think the conclusion is that the great majority of IMGs find a spot, whether pre-match, in the match or post-match.
 
M

Miklos

Skip Intro said:
I think, whatever the reason, the point is that many of those who are ECFMG-certified who don't match, don't pre-match, or can't get a spot in the U.S. fall into one of the categories I outline on this thread.

I could attempt to boil the numbers, and maybe I will after next week, and try resolve and make sense with what you've got here, Miklos. But, I just don't have time right now (with Step 2 looming). Will try to get back to you...

-Skip

Skip,

Your point is well taken.

I look forward to you dissecting the numbers with you and BK after your Step 2.

Good luck to both of you.

Miklos
 
M

Miklos

Dramkinola said:
Thanks Miklos for replying...

See, I just got my numbers from the little "Fact Card" the ECFMG sends when you register to take one of the exams...

I guess you got your numbers from the NRMP website?
Because I don't understand why our numbers are different.

The NRMP only lists the number of successful matches through the NRMP. They do not provide numbers on either pre-match or post-match arrangements. The ECFMG has this data. If you say that you got it from them, one can assume that this is correct. So, the number of IMG interns is correct.

Dramkinola said:
But you stated Pre-match candidates... if they withdrew from the match before it happened, they would not be included in these numbers because this was the number of candidates who actually went through the match...
those candidate would be withdrawn and wouldn't go through it...
I know you stated that number would be minimal, but I think they just don't exist in these figures I quoted.

I doubt it. Your numbers most probably refer to the total number of ECFMG certified individuals gaining internships.

How otherwise would the number of those unmatched IMGs in your calculation(total, both USIMG and FNIMG) who gain a position in the scramble exceed the TOTAL number of scramble positions that remain after the match is complete?

The answer is above in my original post. No way...

Never mind that the number of those that withdraw due to a pre-match offer is minimal. A large percentage of the ones that have a null rank list (and are thereby 'not active' applicants) have secured pre-match positions.

Dramkinola said:
So my question to you is... what percentage of IMG's who were eligible actually got a PGY-1 position?

Because for us, that's the bottom line.
Thanks, look forward to your reply.
Majid

Okay, we can guesstimate...

We know that 6,073 IMGs gained internships in 2002, because that is what the ECFMG tells us.

So let's add up the number of eligible IMGs.

'Active' USIMG applicants: 2,029
'Active' FNIMG applicants: 4,556
-------------------------------
Total 'Active' IMG applicants: 6,585

Now add to this the no ranking IMGs, as they are ECFMG eligible. Whether they actually got a position or not, only they and the ECFMG know.

No ranking USIMGs: 682
No ranking FNIMGs: 1,943
-----------------------------
Total no ranking IMGs: 2,625

I will ignore the ones that withdrew, as I do not know whether they were forcibly withdrawn or voluntarily due to matching. In place, we will assume that the number of those that withdrew are minimal and will instead substitute them with those no ranking IMGs that didn't actually pre-match. (I know, this is very rough, but I simply don't have the data. If anyone else can add to this, I would be thankful.)

Ok. Add Total 'Active' IMGs + Total no ranking IMGs (given the above assumptions) = 9,210 "eligible" IMGs

Take IMGs who scored internships (6,073) and divide by grossly calculated number of "eligible" IMGs (9,210) =

65.94%

Again, very rough. And not all factors are accounted for.

Miklos
 
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