Increasing anxiety over expanding # of applicants.

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BDIX727

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Anybody else getting nervous over the ever increasing # of applicants every year? The mean GPA + MCAT score both increasing at an alarming rate? 20+ applicants for every seat?

Whats going to stop the trend? Is there a greater amount of aspiring physicians in the population or simply a larger population? Is there an issue with medical schools capacities/number of medical schools?

I've given up on the M.D. route and am perfectly happy with becoming a D.O. but even the standards for their schools are growing alarmingly fast. I will be graduating in the Fall semester of 2011 and am scared the mean GPA for D.O. matriculants will be a 3.6 and a MCAT of 30+ w/ M.D.'s pushing a 3.8+ and a MCAT of 33+.

In BIO, we learned about populations and ecology and in that particular section we got into the Logistics curve. Do you think a Logistics Curve is a possibility here?

Is the proportion of Premeds getting that much larger? Or is the population growth in the past 15 years that much larger than the growth of medical school seats?

Even if the standards become what I wrote above, I could still swing a D.O. school with enough grade replacement but the point is we are at an uphill battle more so than previous generations.

How do you feel about the topic? (not trying to create propaganda or fear mongering)
 
BDIX727 said:
Anybody else getting nervous over the ever increasing # of applicants every year? The mean GPA + MCAT score both increasing at an alarming rate? 20+ applicants for every seat?

Whats going to stop the trend? Is there a greater amount of aspiring physicians in the population or simply a larger population? Is there an issue with medical schools capacities/number of medical schools?

I've given up on the M.D. route and am perfectly happy with becoming a D.O. but even the standards for their schools are growing alarmingly fast. I will be graduating in the Fall semester of 2011 and am scared the mean GPA for D.O. matriculants will be a 3.6 and a MCAT of 30+ w/ M.D.'s pushing a 3.8+ and a MCAT of 33+.

In BIO, we learned about populations and ecology and in that particular section we got into the Logistics curve. Do you think a Logistics Curve is a possibility here?

Is the proportion of Premeds getting that much larger? Or is the population growth in the past 15 years that much larger than the growth of medical school seats?

Even if the standards become what I wrote above, I could still swing a D.O. school with enough grade replacement but the point is we are at an uphill battle more so than previous generations.

How do you feel about the topic? (not trying to create propaganda or fear mongering)
Click to expand...

Really? I heard they were actually dicreasing...but of course i could be wrong...
 
However if that's the case, anyone have any predictions of how it will be like about 3-4 years from now? You think it's going to be extremely competitive by then? Or new med schools would open, accomodating the increasing number of applicants?
 
It's a couple years old, but this shows you how the number of applicant's have changed over the past 10 years or so. It also shows the increases in med school seats in either existing med schools or new schools that have opened up in 2009. Med school seats have been increasing recently, granted, it is nowhere near enough to meet the increased applicant numbers.

https://www.aamc.org/download/68634/data/enrollmentdata2009.pdf

What I've read on SDN is that the number of applicants reflects how well the economy is with a ~3 year delay. If the economy is good, 3 years down the line, applicant numbers will decrease. If the economy continues to worsen, expect more competition.
 
I read an article one time (sorry I can't find the link) that showed compelling evidence that by the year 2030 the average MCAT score will be a 43U and the average GPA will be 4.16 to get into medical school. Just be happy we're applying now.
 
BDIX727 said:
Anybody else getting nervous over the ever increasing # of applicants every year? The mean GPA + MCAT score both increasing at an alarming rate? 20+ applicants for every seat?

Whats going to stop the trend? Is there a greater amount of aspiring physicians in the population or simply a larger population? Is there an issue with medical schools capacities/number of medical schools?

I've given up on the M.D. route and am perfectly happy with becoming a D.O. but even the standards for their schools are growing alarmingly fast. I will be graduating in the Fall semester of 2011 and am scared the mean GPA for D.O. matriculants will be a 3.6 and a MCAT of 30+ w/ M.D.'s pushing a 3.8+ and a MCAT of 33+.

In BIO, we learned about populations and ecology and in that particular section we got into the Logistics curve. Do you think a Logistics Curve is a possibility here?

Is the proportion of Premeds getting that much larger? Or is the population growth in the past 15 years that much larger than the growth of medical school seats?

Even if the standards become what I wrote above, I could still swing a D.O. school with enough grade replacement but the point is we are at an uphill battle more so than previous generations.

How do you feel about the topic? (not trying to create propaganda or fear mongering)
Click to expand...

Yeah.. I've heard nothing like this...

I was actually looking on a school's website that shows the number of applicants for the last couple of years, and the number of applications this year is lower than last year (by about 60 people).
 
BDIX727 said:
Anybody else getting nervous over the ever increasing # of applicants every year? The mean GPA + MCAT score both increasing at an alarming rate? 20+ applicants for every seat?

Whats going to stop the trend? Is there a greater amount of aspiring physicians in the population or simply a larger population? Is there an issue with medical schools capacities/number of medical schools?

I've given up on the M.D. route and am perfectly happy with becoming a D.O. but even the standards for their schools are growing alarmingly fast. I will be graduating in the Fall semester of 2011 and am scared the mean GPA for D.O. matriculants will be a 3.6 and a MCAT of 30+ w/ M.D.'s pushing a 3.8+ and a MCAT of 33+.

In BIO, we learned about populations and ecology and in that particular section we got into the Logistics curve. Do you think a Logistics Curve is a possibility here?

Is the proportion of Premeds getting that much larger? Or is the population growth in the past 15 years that much larger than the growth of medical school seats?

Even if the standards become what I wrote above, I could still swing a D.O. school with enough grade replacement but the point is we are at an uphill battle more so than previous generations.

How do you feel about the topic? (not trying to create propaganda or fear mongering)
Click to expand...

The average MCAT score of matriculants has increased from 29.7 in 1999 to 31.1 in 2010.

1999 29.7
2000 29.7
2001 29.6
2002 29.6
2003 29.6
2004 29.9
2005 30.2
2006 30.3
2007 30.8
2008 30.9
2009 30.8
2010 31.1

Average GPA in the same time (matriculants)

1999 3.59
2000 3.60
2001 3.60
2002 3.61
2003 3.62
2004 3.62
2005 3.63
2006 3.64
2007 3.65
2008 3.66
2009 3.66
2010 3.67

Total matriculants has increased from 16,221 in 1999 to 18,665 in 2010.
 
normtheniner said:
Yeah.. I've heard nothing like this...

I was actually looking on a school's website that shows the number of applicants for the last couple of years, and the number of applications this year is lower than last year (by about 60 people).
Click to expand...
Every school is going to vary year by year in the number of applicants they get. It's a normal fluctuation since so many factors go into choosing where to apply. While the school you looked at got 60 fewer applications, some schools got a couple thousand more applications than they're used to.
 
A big chunk of the applicants are applying unrealistically or just suck, so I wouldn't be too worried about it. Just do your best, because not everyone else will.
 
It's no secret that a lot of US universities are guilty as hell of GPA inflation (I really can't find an article off-hand, but I know it's a commonly discussed topic). That coupled with the flawed belief of the majority of the populace that college degree == "jerbs!" means your pool of potential applicants keeps growing, yes. (College degree does not automatically equal a job for you, unless you've gone for a major like engineering or something.)

And as always, when the economy is a hit hard, people will look to stay in school (conveniently accruing more debt picking up often useless graduate degrees). Unfortunately for the law side of things, their accrediting body isn't either very tough, or is very easy-going when it comes to approving law schools (there are a lot of law schools, but only a small portion result in "good" jobs). It's cheaper to run a law school then a med school I suppose, but very few new medical schools are popping up around the country. They are incredibly expensive to get up and running.
 
BDIX727 said:
Anybody else getting nervous over the ever increasing # of applicants every year? The mean GPA + MCAT score both increasing at an alarming rate? 20+ applicants for every seat?

Whats going to stop the trend? Is there a greater amount of aspiring physicians in the population or simply a larger population? Is there an issue with medical schools capacities/number of medical schools?

I've given up on the M.D. route and am perfectly happy with becoming a D.O. but even the standards for their schools are growing alarmingly fast. I will be graduating in the Fall semester of 2011 and am scared the mean GPA for D.O. matriculants will be a 3.6 and a MCAT of 30+ w/ M.D.'s pushing a 3.8+ and a MCAT of 33+.

In BIO, we learned about populations and ecology and in that particular section we got into the Logistics curve. Do you think a Logistics Curve is a possibility here?

Is the proportion of Premeds getting that much larger? Or is the population growth in the past 15 years that much larger than the growth of medical school seats?

Even if the standards become what I wrote above, I could still swing a D.O. school with enough grade replacement but the point is we are at an uphill battle more so than previous generations.

How do you feel about the topic? (not trying to create propaganda or fear mongering)
Click to expand...

I think that if you have anxiety about the increasing number of applicants, then you are in need of some serious stress relief. Take care of business and you won't have anything to worry about. You have absolutely no control over what other people do anyway.
 
gettheleadout said:
A big chunk of the applicants are applying unrealistically or just suck, so I wouldn't be too worried about it. Just do your best, because not everyone else will.
Click to expand...



True. But you can't deny the GPA and MCAT have gone up considerably over the past decades... I think OP is legit, It will just continue to increase and the number of seats in schools will not keep up with the increase in applicants.
 
BDIX727 said:
Anybody else getting nervous over the ever increasing # of applicants every year? The mean GPA + MCAT score both increasing at an alarming rate? 20+ applicants for every seat? )
Click to expand...

I am definitely getting nervous by this. What is it? Something around a ten percent increase in applicants every year. Whether that number is right or not, it is alarmingly high.

Hopefully the application/interview process may be able to weed out the majority of people who are just in it for the money or prestige. Just the other day I had an argument with another premed who is doing medicine for the job security (money) and because her parents are pressuring her. This is a ridiculous reason to spend 7+ years of your life training to become a doctor.
 
gettheleadout said:
A big chunk of the applicants are applying unrealistically or just suck, so I wouldn't be too worried about it. Just do your best, because not everyone else will.
Click to expand...

The # of qualified applicants has certainly increased as well.

movax said:
It's no secret that a lot of US universities are guilty as hell of GPA inflation (I really can't find an article off-hand, but I know it's a commonly discussed topic). That coupled with the flawed belief of the majority of the populace that college degree == "jerbs!" means your pool of potential applicants keeps growing, yes. (College degree does not automatically equal a job for you, unless you've gone for a major like engineering or something.)
Click to expand...

This does not explain the increases in MCAT scores.
 
Meh, life is a constant competition. Don't worry about it and just do the best you can. Make yourself competitive.

Or, invent a time machine.
 
slammer922 said:
True. But you can't deny the GPA and MCAT have gone up considerably over the past decades... I think OP is legit, It will just continue to increase and the number of seats in schools will not keep up with the increase in applicants.
Click to expand...

I don't deny that the GPA and MCAT standards are increasing, but isn't competition also a good thing? It should drive you to work harder - shouldn't it? My point is that we spend too much time worrying about things that are out of our control, and we have too many excuses when things don't come as easily as we want them to. Concentrate on your grades, your MCAT, and do your extracurriculars for the right reasons - and you'll get in somewhere.
 
Narmerguy said:
This does not explain the increases in MCAT scores.
Click to expand...
Didn't mean it to do so. I would just attribute that to changes in teaching paradigms (or maybe the paper -> CBT switch?) at school, or simply an increase in intelligent applicants taking the MCAT (or an increase in the number of test prep courses being taken). It's hard to say.
 
Narmerguy said:
This does not explain the increases in MCAT scores.
Click to expand...

Don't remember where I read this, I remember that part of the increase is due to more testing dates.

People are much more likely to retake if they can do it a month or two after instead of having to wait a long time. Then, it isn't worth it if they have to wait.
 
Last edited:
Keep in mind, part of the reason it looks like schools are getting more applications is because people may be applying to more schools. If people used to apply to just 5 programs and now 10 or 15, it will look like there are more applicants when really it hasn't increased that much.
 
In addition, keep in mind that the number of medical school slots have substantially risen since 1999.

Maybe you should have applied in 1979 when my uncle did, he told me that each seat had 50-60 applicants.
 
sylvanthus said:
Keep in mind, part of the reason it looks like schools are getting more applications is because people may be applying to more schools. If people used to apply to just 5 programs and now 10 or 15, it will look like there are more applicants when really it hasn't increased that much.
Click to expand...


True, becuase it is easeier to apply to mroe schools compatitively.
 
BDIX727 said:
20+ applicants for every seat?
Click to expand...

This isn't true. There may be 20 applications for every seat, but the numbers on matriculants vs. applicants are a lot more favorable. For the 2009-2010 cycle, there were something like 44,000 applicants and maybe 18,000 matriculants, about 2.5 applicants per seat. You still have to apply intelligently, but in order to get into medical school, you really only have to beat out 1 or 2 other people.
 
gettheleadout said:
A big chunk of the applicants are applying unrealistically or just suck, so I wouldn't be too worried about it. Just do your best, because not everyone else will.
Click to expand...


This is the same logic I use while studying 4-5 nights a week.


Still, it can be a scary thought... maybe M.D. matriculants aren't increasing like D.O.'s are.
 
Astarael said:
This isn't true. There may be 20 applications for every seat, but the numbers on matriculants vs. applicants are a lot more favorable. For the 2009-2010 cycle, there were something like 44,000 applicants and maybe 18,000 matriculants, about 2.5 applicants per seat. You still have to apply intelligently, but in order to get into medical school, you really only have to beat out 1 or 2 other people.
Click to expand...


This is more like how it is. People are starting to apply broadly more often. So while the number of applications has gone up the number of applicants has not greatly increased. This is why some schools see a large amount of waitlist movement. The MCAT is also likely to level out or decrease because of test improvements. BS and PS sections are reading more like verbal, thus increasing the difficulty.
Still the same rules apply, get the best scores you can, get great ECs, apply broad and interview well and you should be ok.
 
Honestly I have more important things to worry about. I'm giving this process my absolute all, and things will probably pay off. If I can get a 30+ MCAT, I'm confident I'll get in somewhere. Anxiety over this is actually hurtful for you. :shrug:
 
I blame SDN TBH. Now a hell of a lot of pre-meds know about this site, so everyone knows exactly what to do 😛.

At least on the interview trail, SDN came up more than once.
 
The average MCAT will be asymptoting soon. Notice that the average MCAT actually decreased from 1999-2004. Then jumped .5 decimal points during the switch to the CBT. Now that the CBT is normalizing the increases will slow down.
 
IvyHopeful20 said:
I blame SDN TBH. Now a hell of a lot of pre-meds know about this site, so everyone knows exactly what to do 😛.

At least on the interview trail, SDN came up more than once.
Click to expand...
Ooooh, I wanna hear these stories🙂

It came up a couple of times around me too, mostly with disdain. I never brought it up or participated in the convos, but it was always interesting how people would bring it up and then say what crap it is, etc. I know they were on here stalking school specific threads just like the rest of us:laugh:

I don't bring it up because I don't want to identify myself. But the truth is, SDN helped make my app cycle what it was.
 
I'd be lost without SDN.

but for some, ignorance is bliss. :shrug:
 
Let's look at some AAMC data

Year, number of test takes, mean PS, VR, BS scores, mean overall score

2000, 54,763, 8.2, 7.8, 8.3, NA
2003, 58,764, 8.1, 8.1, 8.5, 24.7
2006, 70,901, 8.4, 8.1, 8.6, 25.1
2007, 67,828, 8.4, 8.0, 8.8, 25.1
2008, 75,809, 8.2, 8.0, 8.7, 24.9

Sources:
https://www.aamc.org/students/download/85348/data/combined00.pdf
https://www.aamc.org/students/download/85342/data/combined03.pdf
https://www.aamc.org/students/download/85336/data/combined06.pdf
https://www.aamc.org/students/download/85334/data/combined07.pdf
https://www.aamc.org/students/download/85332/data/combined08.pdf

If you can get at least a 31 (80.5-85%), you should have a good shot at many allo schools
 
I think what scares me is the AAMC admissions statistics... where even just 80ish % get into a med school if they have a 4.0/+38 or something...

😛
 
Narmerguy said:
Average GPA in the same time (matriculants)

1999 3.59
2000 3.60
2001 3.60
2002 3.61
2003 3.62
2004 3.62
2005 3.63
2006 3.64
2007 3.65
2008 3.66
2009 3.66
2010 3.67

Total matriculants has increased from 16,221 in 1999 to 18,665 in 2010.
Click to expand...

Sucks for people with hard majors (like me.) 🙁
 
Hoody said:
I'd be lost without SDN.

but for some, ignorance is bliss. :shrug:
Click to expand...

I did not consult SDN for my application cycle. I feel like it would have only made me neurotic. So, yes. Bliss. 🙂
 
gettheleadout said:
I wish people wouldn't tell people about SDN...
Click to expand...

The first rule of SDN, is you do not talk about SDN.

The second rule of SDN, is you DO NOT talk about SDN.

Brad-Pitt-Fight-club-Workout.jpg
 
zheng said:
I think what scares me is the AAMC admissions statistics... where even just 80ish % get into a med school if they have a 4.0/+38 or something...

😛
Click to expand...

How does this scare you? If they had these kind of stats and didn't get in, then there was most likely a good reason for it. The rest of their application was probably pretty bad, or they applied super, super late. Or, they got to their interviews and couldn't complete a sentence. :laugh:
 
SFGuy2011 said:
How does this scare you? If they had these kind of stats and didn't get in, then there was most likely a good reason for it. The rest of their application was probably pretty bad, or they applied super, super late. Or, they got to their interviews and couldn't complete a sentence. :laugh:
Click to expand...

Actually I'd be more concerned if they were all getting in. That means that there's a bunch of people getting close to automatically selected which means you can subtract those from available seats for someone with lower scores.
 
movax said:
Didn't mean it to do so. I would just attribute that to changes in teaching paradigms (or maybe the paper -> CBT switch?) at school, or simply an increase in intelligent applicants taking the MCAT (or an increase in the number of test prep courses being taken). It's hard to say.
Click to expand...

I'd say it's probably due to the age of the test format. As a particular test format ages, the study materials improve. I don't know how the new exam format will be scored, but it should somewhat reset scores.

BenjaminT said:
I read an article one time (sorry I can't find the link) that showed compelling evidence that by the year 2030 the average MCAT score will be a 43U and the average GPA will be 4.16 to get into medical school. Just be happy we're applying now.
Click to expand...

See above on MCAT scores.
 
BenjaminT said:
I read an article one time (sorry I can't find the link) that showed compelling evidence that by the year 2030 the average MCAT score will be a 43U and the average GPA will be 4.16 to get into medical school. Just be happy we're applying now.
Click to expand...
Not+Sure+if+serious.jpg
 
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