Nobody really knows what % correct corresponds to what 2-digit scaled score, or what % correct will equal passing any given year. It's probably around 60-70%.
There are a couple ways to look at ITE scores as predictors of passing or failing.
1) Focus on your scaled score. Traditionally most will say that a scaled score of 33 or 34 on the ITE is likely a "passing" score. The %-ile for a 34 varies depending on year group, of course. In 2008 for those taking the exam at the end of their CA-1 year, a 34 was 96th percentile; for the CA-2s a 34 was 84th percentile. (CA-3s didn't take the ITE last year.)
2) Or, focus on your percentile. Overall, for those taking the exam for credit, better than 80% passed. So as Gaseous Clay's PD says, as long as your score within your year group is over the 30th percentile you're "on track" to pass. 30th percentile scores for the 2008 exam were about 22 and 26 for CA-1s and -2s, respectively.
I think (1) is the superior approach.
Problem #1 with being satisfied with a 30th percentile score as a -1 or -2 is that a lot of the nation's residents don't really start studying for the exam until their final year. Consequently I think a 30th percentile CA-2 who doesn't really step it up as a CA-3 is in danger of failing. Most of his peers will double their board prep efforts as CA-3s ... if he just stays the course he'll fall off the curve.
Problem #2 with a 30th percentile score is that you got the low-hanging fruit already. Getting the next tier of questions right is more difficult. There's a big gap between the 26 a 30th percentile CA-2 gets and the 34 he'll need to pass the next year.
