I definitely agree that pathologic staging is more valuable and accurate than clinical staging. That being said, the two reported NSABP trials of NAC (B18 and B27) and the entire MDACC experience with NAC is based on clinical staging (none of the patients had full axillary dissection prior to NAC to determine true pathologic stage). As such, all of the available data showing low rates of local recurrence for stage II patients with pCR to NAC is based on clinical staging and, therefore, the data is applicable
I was actually referring to this statement of yours:
LRR rates for patients with pN1 disease treated with upfront mastectomy and adjuvant chemotherapy (without PMRT) in the large series from ECOG (Recht et al.), NSABP (Taghian et al.) and MDACC (Katz et al.) are in the 10-14% range.
Those are upfront pN1-patients.
You contend that the risk of locoregional recurrence in this patient would be above 10%? Unfortunately, that estimate is not at all supported by the available data in clinical stage II patients with pCR to NAC (0-7.5%).
The problem here is that we are basing all of our "evidence" on M.D. Anderson data for quite a few patients. PMID 17418973 provides data on
22(!) patients with Stage I+II breast cancer, achieving pCR after neoadjuvant chemotherapy, not receiving post mastectomy irradiation and all of them developing no recurrence. The rest of the quoted articles do not provide a breakdown according to stage and pCR reached.
Can we really say that it's safe to ommit radiation therapy (although we do have numerous indications for it) simply because there is a single, single-arm study out there with 22(!) patients, which all had no recurrence?
IMHO: I don't think so.
The issue here is not a "magical" 5% survival benefit.... rather, the issue is that randomized trials of adjuvant radiotherapy are almost always underpowered to demonstrate a survival benefit <5%, thereby making survival differences of 5% or greater the necessary threshold to demonstrate a statistically significant survival benefit with adjuvant RT.
I fully agree with you on this.
But in every day work the argument of medical oncologists is:
"Local recurrence risk is 10%, so radiation therapy provides about 2-3% survival benefit, thus we don't need it."
Bollocks!
I would be very careful saying this. The statement above is very misleading. The 3% difference was a point estimate only. The curves, which were shown at the plenary talk, overlapped at multiple time points. If the curves never overlapped and the IMN RT arm was always above the no IMN RT arm and the problem was an underpowered study, as you suggest, then the p value would be much lower than the p statistic observed. By contrast, the overlapping survival estimates over time lead to a p value of 0.88... ie nowhere near significant. To say to a patient or colleague that there is a 3% survival benefit with IMN RT which may have been statistically significant with a larger sample size is not supported by the actuarial survival curves from the French trial and would be a misleading statement.
Ok, thank you for making this point, since I never saw the Kaplan-Meier-curves.
They are not available on the online version of the abstract.
Good to know that. So I agree with you, according to this trial we can not see a benefit for mammaria interna irradiation.
However, I think you too would agree with me, that the design of this trial had major flaws. Noone really expected mammaria interna irradiation to show an absolute survival benefit of >10% over standard irradiation in post mastectomy patients. Right?
Which brings up the point: Who designed this trial, what has she/he thinking of when presuming that mammaria interna irradiation would raise survival by 10% and what's the bottom line of this trial.
If you look at it from a very "statistical point of view" then all you can say by this trial, is that it failed to detect a survival benefit through mammaria interna irradiation which would be greater than 10%. For every other statement this trial was not powered enough to give more information. Perhaps we should look into other endpoints of the trial like recurrence free survival. Maybe there we will find (retrospectively) some more info if mammaria interna irradiation changed patterns of failure.