Interviews: Howw many till an acceptance is close to imminent?

[asanch]

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So we've all heard of someone who only got one interview to a decent school and happened to get in. My question is, how many interviews till you are more than likely to get accepted somewhere? Obviously there are no guarantees, and no for-sure number, but what do you think? How does three sound?

 

[SunsFun]

5

 

[osprey099]

I'd say 4

 

[asanch]

I've tried finding patterns. I know one applicant with great stats, who got one II and one acceptance. But then I have heard of others with more interviews, and no acceptances...

 

[TheShaker]

I always heard that the magic number is three.

 

[asanch]

I always heard that the magic number is three.

I heard similar, assuming your interviews are in September or early October.

 

[Chillbo Baggins]

I always heard that the magic number is three.

This is what I've heard as well.

 

[13132]

I feel like it all depends on what your state school is like.

 

[xroc]

Obviously a lot of factors go into this situation. For example, some schools typically accept 20% of their interviewees, while others accept close to 60%. Assuming an average acceptance rate of 30%, then 3-4 interviews should put you in a good place assuming a good resume and good interview performance. Of course, as you can see, there are a ton of variables in this picture which is why there are people out there with 1 interview and an acceptance and some with 8 interviews and no acceptances.

 

[kyamh]

From what I have seen, most schools give out acceptances to at about 50% of the people they interview, sometimes more. Assuming you are an average-skilled interviewee, and that we can use high school probability rules, then with three interviews your chances of NOT getting in anywhere are 12%, with 5 that number goes down to 3%. But if you don't have strong interview skills, then if you get rejected from one place, you are likely to get rejected from others too...

This is my long way of saying I will feel more at ease when/if I rack up 4 interviews 🙂

 

[kyamh]

Obviously a lot of factors go into this situation. For example, some schools typically accept 20% of their interviewees, while others accept close to 60%. Assuming an average acceptance rate of 30%, then 3-4 interviews should put you in a good place assuming a good resume and good interview performance. Of course, as you can see, there are a ton of variables in this picture which is why there are people out there with 1 interview and an acceptance and some with 8 interviews and no acceptances.

great minds and all that...😀

 

[volcomx]

Another thing to think about is the correlation between the ratio of interviews/applications and the number of acceptances. Someone who gets 5 interviews out 5 applications is probably going to be more likely to have an acceptance than the person who gets 5 interviews from 50 applications.

 

[pyrrion89]

Another thing to think about is the correlation between the ratio of interviews/applications and the number of acceptances. Someone who gets 5 interviews out 5 applications is probably going to be more likely to have an acceptance than the person who gets 5 interviews from 50 applications.

I've been wondering whether there are some clues that your interviews will be more likely to result in acceptances. For instance, if it's a clue that you're invited early to interview at a school with rolling admissions, and whether you get many early invitations or not. And, as you said, whether you have a high II/apply ratio.

Anyway, I agree that, although acceptance from the II pool is a 35% average across schools, very roughly, one's individual chances vary widely based on background and interviewing skill. But let's assume 35% for fun!

Then: http://www.wolframalpha.com/share/clip?f=d41d8cd98f00b204e9800998ecf8427evpilk3saf3
Edit: Graph shows chance of full rejection on Y, # of II attended on X

 

[asanch]

I've been wondering whether there are some clues that your interviews will be more likely to result in acceptances. For instance, if it's a clue that you're invited early to interview at a school with rolling admissions, and whether you get many early invitations or not. And, as you said, whether you have a high II/apply ratio.

Anyway, I agree that, although acceptance from the II pool is a 35% average across schools, very roughly, one's individual chances vary widely based on background and interviewing skill. But let's assume 35% for fun!

Then: http://www.wolframalpha.com/share/clip?f=d41d8cd98f00b204e9800998ecf8427evpilk3saf3
Edit: Graph shows chance of full rejection on Y, # of II attended on X

But is it 35% matriculation or acceptance? I've heard from a few adcoms that it is closer to 50% acceptance, and even higher earlier in the cycle.

 

[pyrrion89]

But is it 35% matriculation or acceptance? I've heard from a few adcoms that it is closer to 50% acceptance, and even higher earlier in the cycle.

Depends on the school. If you go to US News and World Report and pay their fee, you can see the number who get interviewed, accepted, and choose to enroll. Based on my look at around 10-15 schools, I noticed the (accepted/interviewed x 100%) was close to 35% on average (of course, maybe I took an unrepresentative sample by chance).

It is true that some schools have very high acceptances from the interview pool. For instance, Creighton is well above 50%. But other schools, like Vanderbilt, are lower than 35%. Maybe my estimate is too pessimistic (maybe the average is 40% ish)? But with estimates I like to take a conservative view. The stats are averaged for applicants across the cycle, so applying and interviewing earlier likely increases your odds to above the total average, assuming you're applying to many schools with rolling admissions.

 

[volcomx]

I've been wondering whether there are some clues that your interviews will be more likely to result in acceptances. For instance, if it's a clue that you're invited early to interview at a school with rolling admissions, and whether you get many early invitations or not. And, as you said, whether you have a high II/apply ratio.

Anyway, I agree that, although acceptance from the II pool is a 35% average across schools, very roughly, one's individual chances vary widely based on background and interviewing skill. But let's assume 35% for fun!

Then: http://www.wolframalpha.com/share/clip?f=d41d8cd98f00b204e9800998ecf8427evpilk3saf3
Edit: Graph shows chance of full rejection on Y, # of II attended on X

If you have a .5 II/App ratio, you're in excellent shape and, barring any severe personality flaws, are almost guaranteed to get an acceptance. It's still extremely early on, so even if you're at a .1 or .2 ratio, you're still really well off.

Another thing to think about is the type of schools you are interviewing at. If you have been invited to a top 10 school, clearly you are doing things right and shouldn't worry.

If you've been invited in a schools first interview batch, you're golden. Not guaranteed in, but you can bet they are highly interested. Similarly, if you get interviews soon after you are complete, you're more likely to be accepted than someone who has been passed over for a while before invited.

 

[pyrrion89]

If you have a .5 II/App ratio, you're in excellent shape and, barring any severe personality flaws, are almost guaranteed to get an acceptance. It's still extremely early on, so even if you're at a .1 or .2 ratio, you're still really well off.

Another thing to think about is the type of schools you are interviewing at. If you have been invited to a top 10 school, clearly you are doing things right and shouldn't worry.

If you've been invited in a schools first interview batch, you're golden. Not guaranteed in, but you can bet they are highly interested. Similarly, if you get interviews soon after you are complete, you're more likely to be accepted than someone who has been passed over for a while before invited.

Well, for me this is very great news. But how do you know all this? I just mean to me this sounds like you're making some assumptions. I suppose you could say it's common sense, but I've found that oftentimes what seems like common sense can be blown away by unforeseen nuances.

 

[asanch]

Depends on the school. If you go to US News and World Report and pay their fee, you can see the number who get interviewed, accepted, and choose to enroll. Based on my look at around 10-15 schools, I noticed the (accepted/interviewed x 100%) was close to 35% on average (of course, maybe I took an unrepresentative sample by chance).

It is true that some schools have very high acceptances from the interview pool. For instance, Creighton is well above 50%. But other schools, like Vanderbilt, are lower than 35%. Maybe my estimate is too pessimistic (maybe the average is 40% ish)? But with estimates I like to take a conservative view. The stats are averaged for applicants across the cycle, so applying and interviewing earlier likely increases your odds to above the total average, assuming you're applying to many schools with rolling admissions.

I agree. I wonder if we could make some algorithm that includes all these variables...although our values assigned would be estimates 😛 still, it's interesting to think about.

 

[volcomx]

Well, for me this is very great news. But how do you know all this? I just mean to me this sounds like you're making some assumptions. I suppose you could say it's common sense, but I've found that oftentimes what seems like common sense can be blown away by unforeseen nuances.

Common sense combined with talking out of my arse.

But yeah, this question "how many interviews until an acceptance?" can't be answered without making assumptions. I'm just trying to list out some gauges of how well one is doing. You can browse through MD Apps to see how other people fared. But in the end, everyone's experience will vary.

 

[volcomx]

Well, for me this is very great news. But how do you know all this? I just mean to me this sounds like you're making some assumptions. I suppose you could say it's common sense, but I've found that oftentimes what seems like common sense can be blown away by unforeseen nuances.

Also, judging by friends experiences, people who were invited to ~50% of their school list usually got accepted by half the places they interviewed at. People who were invited to ~25% of their school list usually got accepted to a quarter of the places they interviewed at. Correlation at work.

Looking at your MD Apps, you're going to be making some tough decisions soon...you'll probably have to choose which top school you'll want to attend. 😛

 

[SilentSoldier]

I always heard that the magic number is three.

and even that isn't set in stone. I know from experience 🙁

 

[TheShaker]

and even that isn't set in stone. I know from experience 🙁

You and me both.

 

[volcomx]

You and me both.

count me in

 

[asanch]

Well then I guess 3 is inaccurate. Lol.

 

[TheBossDoctor]

There was a thread recently about someone with 6 interviews and no acceptances. Unless you can have other people confirm that you're really good at interviewing, you can't be certain.

 

[circulus vitios]

I've been wondering whether there are some clues that your interviews will be more likely to result in acceptances. For instance, if it's a clue that you're invited early to interview at a school with rolling admissions, and whether you get many early invitations or not. And, as you said, whether you have a high II/apply ratio.

Anyway, I agree that, although acceptance from the II pool is a 35% average across schools, very roughly, one's individual chances vary widely based on background and interviewing skill. But let's assume 35% for fun!

Then: http://www.wolframalpha.com/share/clip?f=d41d8cd98f00b204e9800998ecf8427evpilk3saf3
Edit: Graph shows chance of full rejection on Y, # of II attended on X

I don't know if it's because I applied to so many DO schools, but it's closer to 55% for me.

 

[asanch]

I don't know if it's because I applied to so many DO schools, but it's closer to 55% for me.

Yeah I'm referring to allopathic schools specifically

 

[asanch]

There was a thread recently about someone with 6 interviews and no acceptances. Unless you can have other people confirm that you're really good at interviewing, you can't be certain.

This seems to me like there was some red flag in their app...

 

[CarlosDanger]

I feel bad for you guys that have really competitive state schools. I have interviews - thank goodness - at all the public schools in my home state, but I'm basically getting put on hold everywhere else. If I lived in CA, I would be like, oh, my state school is UCSF...Great.

 

[TheBossDoctor]

This seems to me like there was some red flag in their app...

How could you get 6 II if there was a red flag in the application? All I can think of is interviewing too late. For anything else, you'd think they would be rejected pre-interview

 

[nemo123]

Depends on the school. If you go to US News and World Report and pay their fee, you can see the number who get interviewed, accepted, and choose to enroll. Based on my look at around 10-15 schools, I noticed the (accepted/interviewed x 100%) was close to 35% on average (of course, maybe I took an unrepresentative sample by chance).

It is true that some schools have very high acceptances from the interview pool. For instance, Creighton is well above 50%. But other schools, like Vanderbilt, are lower than 35%. Maybe my estimate is too pessimistic (maybe the average is 40% ish)? But with estimates I like to take a conservative view. The stats are averaged for applicants across the cycle, so applying and interviewing earlier likely increases your odds to above the total average, assuming you're applying to many schools with rolling admissions.

I think Vanderbilt is more like 40% now since they are only interviewing a little over 500 applicants as opposed to 1000 like they did two or three years ago.

 

[asanch]

.

 

[WaterPog]

The correct answer is "one good one."

same as with job interviews.