Investment plan, thoughts

[Chemist0157]

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@Chemist0157

12.5% in not bad IMO and it won't be quite nominal since I was planning to buy a new built (very low repair cost) and use the little extra rent $$$ for repair.

Maybe I think I can replicate my early success. I invested 45k in 2011 (purchase price 150k and using 15-yr mortgage) and use the extra $$$ in rent to pay off the mortgage. Paid it off in 10 yrs and 3 months and now sitting on 480k equity according to zillow.

I probably had a total of 4 months vacancy during these 10 yrs.

Nice. Well, I guess it just depends on if you think you can replicate in the market of the next 15 years what you did in the past 10 years.

 

[dpmd]

@Chemist0157

12.5% in not bad IMO and it won't be quite nominal since I was planning to buy a new built (very low repair cost) and use the little extra rent $$$ for repair.

Maybe I think I can replicate my early success. I invested 45k in 2011 (purchase price 150k and using 15-yr mortgage) and use the extra $$$ in rent to pay off the mortgage. Paid it off in 10 yrs and 3 months and now sitting on 480k equity according to zillow.

I probably had a total of 4 months vacancy during these 10 yrs.

The equity means nothing to you until you sell it (in which case selling costs and taxes eat into it) and or if you take a mortgage out on it (in which case fees and interest eats into it). Calculate how much that extra money invested would have grown to in that time frame and what equity you would have had if you had done a 30 yr mortgage and also calculate what happens in the next 20 years if you invest all the rent now since you have no mortgage and compare thay to what your investments would have grown to had you kept the 30yr and invested the extra instead. I think you will be shocked at what you could have had.

 

[deleted50541]

The equity means nothing to you until you sell it (in which case selling costs and taxes eat into it) and or if you take a mortgage out on it (in which case fees and interest eats into it). Calculate how much that extra money invested would have grown to in that time frame and what equity you would have had if you had done a 30 yr mortgage and also calculate what happens in the next 20 years if you invest all the rent now since you have no mortgage and compare thay to what your investments would have grown to had you kept the 30yr and invested the extra instead. I think you will be shocked at what you could have had.

I hear ya. I've got a 30 year mortgage and added a bunch extra to the principal per month to get the PMI off. I've kept at it out of habit since I really hate being in debt (paid off my student loans in 18 months after finishing training). But I'm definitely reconsidering my strategy since like you said the equity really doesn't mean much until the property is sold.

I did crunch the numbers and since I also refinanced to a lower rate, the interest saved by paying off early really doesn't compare to the potential gains by investing that extra principal cash. From a pure numbers standpoint it makes sense. I just have to take emotion out of it and be ok with having the mortgage debt for now.

 

[stillpremed]

not sure how high it will go but I'd bet within 5 or 10 years it will be back down at very low levels. Just nothing special about bitcoin and it can be improved upon. Only has value if other people think it has value but not very useful for transactions so will get replaced.

definitely a gamble and not a investment

😂 71.7K and bull warming up

 

[stillpremed]

Save some money for a house, sure. That is not an investment by any means.

As long as you have cash in the bank for emergencies, put most of your money into the vanguard funds (VTSAX is a good one with minimal fees) and buy one bitcoin. It is 6600 now - in three years you will probably be very happy with the price.

5.5 years later and it went from $6600 to $71700. Not too shabby. A 1000 percent gain in 5.5 years. Would only take 100 years in the SP500 to get that much. My fun prediction: we top out at $150,000 in Q4 2024, drop to $45,000 in 2025 and then start our march to and top out at $450,000 in 2029.

 

[finalpsychyear]

5.5 years later and it went from $6600 to $71700. Not too shabby. A 1000 percent gain in 5.5 years. Would only take 100 years in the SP500 to get that much. My fun prediction: we top out at $150,000 in Q4 2024, drop to $45,000 in 2025 and then start our march to and top out at $450,000 in 2029.

id like to be a little bit more conservative. 100k top for 2024-2025 bull cycle. Then 200k top in 2028-2029. I'm assuming diminishing gains so these are massively sandbagged. Hats off on your call in 2018 to buy at 6600. Not sure that people have noticed that btc is stronger, regulated, and is way past the point of going anywhere long term but up. I much prefer your numbers even with my 200k call in 4-5 years thats a 3x from today so i mean that's still damn good. good luck.

 

[stillpremed]

X

id like to be a little bit more conservative. 100k top for 2024-2025 bull cycle. Then 200k top in 2028-2029. I'm assuming diminishing gains so these are massively sandbagged. Hats off on your call in 2018 to buy at 6600. Not sure that people have noticed that btc is stronger, regulated, and is way past the point of going anywhere long term but up. I much prefer your numbers even with my 200k call in 4-5 years thats a 3x from today so i mean that's still damn good. good luck.

Appreciate it G! I was concerned about being too much of a moonboy so made a conservative estimate of 150K. I actually think we top out at ~180K this cycle.

We have never hit an ATH before the halving prior to this, the on-chain metrics are just warming up, my cousin who loves buying the top has not yet bought, coinbase app just hit top 50 and isn’t yet close to #1, the pi cycle top shows more room to go up, Michael Howell the god of liquidity says we top out (the only person worth listening to BTW) from a liquidity perspective in late 2025 implying more room for growth - those are my reasons for a higher top.

Here is to a new portfolio ATH this year my friend, cheers! It’ll be fun to keep up with this as the bull cycle progresses…

 

[finalpsychyear]

X

Appreciate it G! I was concerned about being too much of a moonboy so made a conservative estimate of 150K. I actually think we top out at ~180K this cycle.

We have never hit an ATH before the halving prior to this, the on-chain metrics are just warming up, my cousin who loves buying the top has not yet bought, coinbase app just hit top 50 and isn’t yet close to #1, the pi cycle top shows more room to go up, Michael Howell the god of liquidity says we top out (the only person worth listening to BTW) from a liquidity perspective in late 2025 implying more room for growth - those are my reasons for a higher top.

Here is to a new portfolio ATH this year my friend, cheers! It’ll be fun to keep up with this as the bull cycle progresses…

i also stick with the 4 year cycles and not going to buy into early top or supercycle stuff. Well if we hit 150-180 this cycle would you agree that 250-300 would be the minimum for the 2028-29 cycle?

This is all getting very exciting but i don't want to get delusional so i try to keep sandbagged numbers.

 

[stillpremed]

i also stick with the 4 year cycles and not going to buy into early top or supercycle stuff. Well if we hit 150-180 this cycle would you agree that 250-300 would be the minimum for the 2028-29 cycle?

This is all getting very exciting but i don't want to get delusional so i try to keep sandbagged numbers.

Agree, the ABSOLUTE minimum unless the world ends and the SP500 is at 2000. Let's see how this bull top shakes out. When the coinbase app is the #1 downloaded app, I am running for the hills, no matter the time frame. I love how you temper your expectations. I am admittedly guilty of overshooting thinking 100K+ back in 2021.

People reading this thread are thinking " these 2 knuckle heads are gonna get it coming for them, when it crashes it's gonna be over!"

The thing they do not realize is that this hungry bull can not be stopped.

The beautiful thing is that we all have the opportunity to make hay while the sun shines - we all choose to go about in different ways. I would much rather have 400%+ gains every 4 years (and get lucky and sell within 20% of the top and get lucky and buy within 50% from the bottom) than make 10% a year in the SP500.

I am going to starting selling COIN once it gets to 350 😎

 

[The White Coat Investor]

This is my current plan and I would like some thoughts. I live in a cheap city. I plan on investing 25% of my earnings into 401k, roth ira, and ect. I plan on purchasing a home I can pay off in 10-15 years. Once the house is paid off I will purchase a vacation condo or home that has good rental income. I will vacation at the condo/ vacation home and invest the extra income into stocks. Is there anything I am missing on here in my quest to become a $5,000,000 man and get there without too many sacrifices? Once the home and vacation property are paid off I will just invest the money I was putting towards the home.

Pretty general plan but I don't see why it won't work assuming you have a decent income. 25% of a typical doctor's salary invested reasonably should certainly get to $5M by career end.

 

[stillpremed]

Agree, the ABSOLUTE minimum unless the world ends and the SP500 is at 2000. Let's see how this bull top shakes out. When the coinbase app is the #1 downloaded app, I am running for the hills, no matter the time frame. I love how you temper your expectations. I am admittedly guilty of overshooting thinking 100K+ back in 2021.

People reading this thread are thinking " these 2 knuckle heads are gonna get it coming for them, when it crashes it's gonna be over!"

The thing they do not realize is that this hungry bull can not be stopped.

The beautiful thing is that we all have the opportunity to make hay while the sun shines - we all choose to go about in different ways. I would much rather have 400%+ gains every 4 years (and get lucky and sell within 20% of the top and get lucky and buy within 50% from the bottom) than make 10% a year in the SP500.

I am going to starting selling COIN once it gets to 350 😎

Why that escalated fast. COIN went from 180 to 325 in a week. I am not selling in 2024… waiting for the Q3/4 2025 top. Let’s see

 

[stillpremed]

i also stick with the 4 year cycles and not going to buy into early top or supercycle stuff. Well if we hit 150-180 this cycle would you agree that 250-300 would be the minimum for the 2028-29 cycle?

This is all getting very exciting but i don't want to get delusional so i try to keep sandbagged numbers.

BTC now at 89K. Are we entertained? Chomp chomp, nothing stops the angry bull

 

[finalpsychyear]

BTC now at 89K. Are we entertained? Chomp chomp, nothing stops the angry bull

What's funny is im already thinking about 2028 cycle like even just holding through current one regardless since the floor is usually the election day price of 70k for 2024.. or maybe sell 20-30% of stash within 20% of cycle peak this time with the sole intent to buy back in the bear but just in case keep the rest as your "HODL bag" in case something changes like it doesn't really correct like we are used to or u sell at 150k but it ends up going to 250-275 etc? All signs point to this being an asset you dont want to sell but borrow against esp long term?

Either way brother we both got the hands depicted below:

Check in when we cross the 100 milestone.

 

[stillpremed]

What's funny is im already thinking about 2028 cycle like even just holding through current one regardless since the floor is usually the election day price of 70k for 2024.. or maybe sell 20-30% of stash within 20% of cycle peak this time with the sole intent to buy back in the bear but just in case keep the rest as your "HODL bag" in case something changes like it doesn't really correct like we are used to or u sell at 150k but it ends up going to 250-275 etc? All signs point to this being an asset you dont want to sell but borrow against esp long term?

Either way brother we both got the hands depicted below:

Check in when we cross the 100 milestone.

My man I love your thoughts. It is always risky to sell the coin as you may never get your position back. I have found a few metrics that may be useful to help time the top this time. I’ll share it with you in the future. For now, we march on and I’ll check you at six digits.

I like your analysis about 70 K probably holding. I think the days of $50,000 bitcoin are dust and I can see the lowest it goes depending on where the top is is probably 60 K. Onwards and upwards. The longer people think this is a scam, the better for us as we get more of the asymmetric return!

I’m looking forward to seeing what Senator Lumis has in store (she apparently has a bill getting drafted for America to buy 1 million bitcoins total in the next five years - doubt it gets passed, but it’s going to be entertaining to say the least.)

PS nice call on the four year cycle! I was delusional in thinking that the top could be quarter four of 2024!

 

[finalpsychyear]

My man I love your thoughts. It is always risky to sell the coin as you may never get your position back. I have found a few metrics that may be useful to help time the top this time. I’ll share it with you in the future. For now, we march on and I’ll check you at six digits.

I like your analysis about 70 K probably holding. I think the days of $50,000 bitcoin are dust and I can see the lowest it goes depending on where the top is is probably 60 K. Onwards and upwards. The longer people think this is a scam, the better for us as we get more of the asymmetric return!

I’m looking forward to seeing what Senator Lumis has in store (she apparently has a bill getting drafted for America to buy 1 million bitcoins total in the next five years - doubt it gets passed, but it’s going to be entertaining to say the least.)

PS nice call on the four year cycle! I was delusional in thinking that the top could be quarter four of 2024!

LOL and less than 4 weeks later here we are again. Perfectly happy with some week some consolidation here to form a new strong support. Not going to be greedy but I think we got our xmas gift early.



Here's to the 100k toast my friend.

 

[stillpremed]

LOL and less than 4 weeks later here we are again. Perfectly happy with some week some consolidation here to form a new strong support. Not going to be greedy but I think we got our xmas gift early.



Here's to the 100k toast my friend.

My man! What a time to be alive! Happy 100K! We pierced through that like a hot knife through butter on the third try. I think the low of the month is in and gosh it is looking good for the rest of the month.

As it stands now based on on chain metrics - it sure looks like 180K+ is a legit possibility for 2025.

There’s no way the average person can afford one bitcoin now. We all had a chance for the last 10 years, I’m sure glad we took advantage.

I can’t wait for the next bear market (that we all expect to happen by the way), with those technology deniers bleating: “I told you bitcoin is a scam. It’s going to zero - so risky!!!! don’t invest what you are not willing to lose!”

They should give their head a fair wobble. Brother, well deserved, I’m gonna hit you up every mid-month until the top! (Bitcoin tends to put in the low for the month in the first week during bull runs)

 

[stillpremed]

I have no idea whether cryptos will go to zero. I just do not view them as an investment. They are a gamble and should be viewed as such. I have nothing against gambling, I do it a decent amount myself. I just don't confuse it with my investments.

I love gambling!

 

[stillpremed]

I love gambling!

I love gambling on the only stock I own now $COIN! Let’s see if we can hit $500 end of 2025

 

[stillpremed]

I love gambling on the only stock I own now $COIN! Let’s see if we can hit $500 end of 2025

I am doing what flies in the face of what everybody says to do:

1) diversify
2) index
3) save $$

I go in hard and reap the percussions. I am alll about taking large concentrated, focused bets on what I think is going to do well. 1-2 stocks/assets maximum for me at one time.

COIN currently $250.

Will I get to enjoy a Sapporo at the end of the year in Asia? I’m liking my chances, let’s see!

 

[Entadus]

you're all in on COIN? seems extremely risky imo
have you considered MSTR? Their BTC stack is way bigger 🤔