Is 2026-2027 cycle cooked
Started by Toxstxr
astrophage
Full Member
Impossible to precisely know this until we get to the end of the cycle. It may seem so for the moment, but maybe the curve is just shifted to the left.
Toxstxr
Full Member
sorry
just being neurotic I guess
but I highly doubt tbh
Now that I think about it, AI has already been embedded in pre-med application workflow for multiple years now. Pre-health advisors have always been useless, so a left-shift caused by better advising is highly unlikely. I can't find any convincing reason why there'd be a left shift.
We is cooked me thinks
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astrophage
Full Member
AI first came out in 2022, arguably became competent in 2025. People who have been planning to apply this year have had the chance to adapt and get better advising/synthesis of info from AI, finished everything earlier, submitted early. AMCAS has been moving through each day since May 28th quite fast (1-2 days it seems).
On the other hand, economy hasn't been great since 2020. People who become unemployed have had 6 years to prepare a good application, that would support more people applying overall. I do not think we are cooked, but I guess we will see.
For those of us who have high MCAT/GPA, it doesn't seem like MCAT percentiles have moved much, so having high stats is still quite meaningful, maybe moreso if there are more applicants overall.
Toxstxr
Full Member
Well if there's more applicants, there's more mcat test takers.
If there's more test takers, there's more people in each percentile band.
If that's the case, there's more people with good stats.
I'll stop being a doomer now.
Edit: only other interpretation (non-applicant numbers related) I can think of is that there was a massive delay last cycle, so everyone got worried and submitted ASAP.
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I also have a report that ADEA AADSAS has a similar spike in early applications. I do think that more students seem to be better "prepared" for an early submission. Apparently the OB3 loan effect hasn't hit applicants... maybe it's magical thinking. Maybe it's the "late applicant" groups which tend to have more low-metrics low-SES applicants are being encouraged to push an early application. Maybe the economy is that bad and too many people have not gotten jobs, or the shedding of tech jobs has converted many to shoot for med school. We'll see.
www.studentdoctor.net
Fill out the Fall 2026 applicant experience survey when it comes out in December. Tell your peers.
The OB3 Effect: How Loan Caps Hit Health Students
What is the OB3 effect on future doctors, dentists and vets? HPSA survey data reveals funding gaps and who is hit hardest.
www.studentdoctor.net
Fill out the Fall 2026 applicant experience survey when it comes out in December. Tell your peers.
It’s a huge number of people submitting on the very first day that is causing the slow start this year. It’s far too early to say how many applicants there are this cycle. Once the first day glut is processed that tracker will move a little quicker
astrophage
Full Member
An exciting time to apply to medical school! I can't wait to see the data that comes out at the end of this cycle.
That and the Parchment glitch. Be patient.
D
deleted1219029
Couldn’t we resolve the “left shift” vs “higher volume” hypotheses by the number of MCATs taken over last year vs prior years? Or do we not have that data.
astrophage
Full Member
I don’t think the data is delimited enough to tell which MCATs are from this year vs last year. There are too many variables to get an accurate answer based on assumptions. We’ll have to wait till the cycle is over to tell.
Considering that MCAT scores remain valid for more than one cycle, and many people take the MCAT before the cycle begins, and the possibility of MCAT retakes... there's no way you can tell.
It may be interesting if there is a similar spike in AACOMAS applications this early. I would not expect it.
It may be interesting if there is a similar spike in AACOMAS applications this early. I would not expect it.
Toxstxr
Full Member
I agree. There was only a small increase in the number of data points used to calculate MCAT percentiles (around 12k, from 293 to 305k) from 2025-2026 to 2026-2027, which is the total number of tests administered in the 3 years leading up to that year
Even if the MCAT remains valid for multiple years, it's still good directional evidence. Thanks for bringing that up
Edit: that doesn't tell us how many people took it in the 2026 leading up to the cycle but it helps I think
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