HRSA published the workforce data that showed a surplus of PT by 2025. It is a pdf so just google HRSA physical therapy outlook and you will get the information. The differences n methodology between HRSA and BLS is a bit more complex to uncover, but I think BLS uses job openings, and HRSA uses current positions for simulation.
Assuming that the number they arrive at for "projected supply (minus) projected demand" divided by the "projected supply, 2025" would give you a basic idea of unemployment rates, then the document you cite essentially predicts 7.5% of among PTs and a whopping 17.6% unemployment of OTs in 2025. The same document for pharmacists would predict 13.7% unemployment in 2025, which is a dire job market circumstance we seem to hear a lot about already. The data for PTs would put them at what would likely be just slightly worse than national unemployment rates by 2025, which seems a bit pessimistic but not totally unreasonable. But the number of unemployed OTs seems pretty over the top.
They're predictions for the percentage demand increase for PT and OT are about the same, but they predict the supply of OTs will go up 46% while PTs will go up 33%. Curious indeed.
And as another interesting side note, their reports put unemployment of chiros and podiatrists both at >10%. Optometrists, on the other hand, clock in at only 5% unemployment in 2025. Though if you peruse the pharmacy and optometry forums on this site, both seem equally doom and gloom. Don't know what to make of all this, just presenting some interesting findings.
And I guess I should say that wherever I have used the work "predict" in this post, I should have used the word "project" as the are not the same thing in this context.
I notice that BLS claims that in 2012 there were 113,000 OTs and 204,000 PTs, but HRSA claims that in 2012 there were 86,000 OTs and 191,000 PTs. That seems like a tremendous difference to me. I wonder if they have quite different methodologies for determining
current employment or only for projecting future employment.
The HRSA documents also start with the assumption that supply and demand were identical (exactly the same number of workers) which I think is a pretty huge assumption that would make the data for 202 more likely to be pessimistic, as I feel like in 2012 demand for PTs and OTs was still exceeding supply in most parts of the country. We know that the number of people graduating PT school and OT school each year is increasing at a faster rate than the number of job openings is, and that a presumed longstanding shortage in rehab professionals is steadily being caught up with. But if you start your model with the assumption that supply is exactly equal to demand, then it's going to be all down hill from there, starting in 2012, as the number of students increases faster than the number of jobs, but I don't think that really was/is the case.
I think about 3.5% unemployment of PTs in 2025 is probably more realistic than 7.5% personally, but who knows. There are 16 programs in candidacy for accreditation right now, and 10 more in some stage of development. So the number of accredited programs, which is already more than adequate in my opinion is set to increase by ~11.4% in the next 6 or 7 years. By 2025 we should have more than 260 DPT programs, and class sizes at most programs are increasing. Heck, by the time St. Augustine gets its Miami campus going just that school alone will be graduating 500-600 students per year. So who knows.
I still don't think OTs are ever going to face 17.5% unemployment though. I guess you never know for sure, but that just seems crazy.
