I don't know any exact numbers, but your numbers sound plausible. What I do know is that, because of the neutral payback year and the fact that applying is not mandatory, Navy PGY-1 programs are really not that competitive. Most new dentists elect to do a credentialing tour. GPR tours may be a little more competitive than AEGD because people use it as a stepping stone into OMFS. If you want to do an AEGD, and you aren't screw-up, you can probably do one. I had pretty mediocre dental school grades with pass/fail boards, and I still got selected for my second choice AEGD.