Is the "30" no longer safe?

[latrala2300]

---

Members don't see this ad.

As I leafed through the MSAR, I noticed that a 32 is average for MD schools now. Is the invisible cutoff of 30 that people strive for no longer as safe as it may have once been?

 

[apumic]

Still pretty safe. Consider that the AVERAGE is ~32, which means people a few pts below that are getting in regularly. The average applicant has a ~28 and since 40% get in, one who has a 3.65+ and a 30 or so should have a good shot (assuming all other factors are in good to outstanding range).

 

[latrala2300]

Still pretty safe. Consider that the AVERAGE is ~32, which means people a few pts below that are getting in regularly. The average applicant has a ~28 and since 40% get in, one who has a 3.65+ and a 30 or so should have a good shot (assuming all other factors are in good to outstanding range).

Has anyone ever mentioned that you're a stats god?

 

[Catalystik]

Isn't 32 the median for those accepted? The average for the year of the most recent MSAR's stats was 30.8 for those entering in 2009. For the class that entered in fall 2010, the average was 31.1.

 

[FloridaMedicine]

Has anyone ever mentioned that you're a stats god?

lol

 

[StudyShy]

It does seem like the standard is on the rise.

 

[latrala2300]

Isn't 32 the median for those accepted? The average for the year of the most recent MSAR's stats was 30.8 for those entering in 2009. For the class that entered in fall 2010, the average was 31.1.

Oops. You're right, but my point still stands. I consider the median to be more reliable than mean because there are a handful of schools in Puerto Rico seemingly scraping down the average (sorry if that sounds insensitive, but it's the truth).

 

[Ursa]

Oops. You're right, but my point still stands. I consider the median to be more reliable than mean because there are a handful of schools in Puerto Rico seemingly scraping down the average (sorry if that sounds insensitive, but it's the truth).

http://www.darwinsfinance.com/median-mean-definition/

Scroll down a tad and read the Warren Buffet Example (the second set of blue text that you'll see). You may not think that median is more reliable than mean after all. I think mean is the better one to look at in terms of the MCAT.

 

[Techmed07]

Isn't 32 the median for those accepted? The average for the year of the most recent MSAR's stats was 30.8 for those entering in 2009. For the class that entered in fall 2010, the average was 31.1.

If the trend follows... a 30 will not suffice.

 

[circulus vitios]

Isn't 32 the median for those accepted? The average for the year of the most recent MSAR's stats was 30.8 for those entering in 2009. For the class that entered in fall 2010, the average was 31.1.

It seems the average GPA has been going up every year for the past 10+ years, with the MCAT trailing slightly behind. I wonder if med schools will address this or keep going until no one under a 3.9 / 35 will get in.

 

[FIREitUP]

If the trend follows... a 30 will not suffice.

The average has leveled off at the ~31 mark, due to the nature of the test, I doubt it will get much higher any time soon.

 

[CardiacIntensivist]

I don't know what the mean/median MCAT score is anymore and am too lazy to check but if it's true that the median or mean is 32, wouldn't that mean a 30 is below average? And perhaps we have different understanding of what safe is but how is it "safe" to be below the mean or median?

 

[JJMrK]

When you look at the MSAR, keep in mind that the average score for accepted applicants is going to be a lot higher than the average for matriculants from school to school. Sure, every school is going to accept the guy with the 39. Eventually he'll only go one place, but every school that accepted him gets to use his 39 to boost their average accepted numbers.

 

[RogueUnicorn]

they use median for the center tendency in this case because of skew... juss sayin

 

[rafflecopter]

When you look at the MSAR, keep in mind that the average score for accepted applicants is going to be a lot higher than the average for matriculants from school to school. Sure, every school is going to accept the guy with the 39. Eventually he'll only go one place, but every school that accepted him gets to use his 39 to boost their average accepted numbers.

This. For each school the MSAR lists average accepted students data, not matriculated. So each school's averages are much higher than the actual entering class that goes there (with exception of places that don't have much people declining acceptances like Harvard or JHU). A 30 3.6 will still get you in places if you apply early and broadly and have the ECs to go with it.

 

[Quik]

If the trend follows... a 30 will not suffice.

The law of diminishing returns will prevail before a 30 is not longer adequate with an otherwise solid application, IMO.

 

[gettheleadout]

When you look at the MSAR, keep in mind that the average score for accepted applicants is going to be a lot higher than the average for matriculants from school to school. Sure, every school is going to accept the guy with the 39. Eventually he'll only go one place, but every school that accepted him gets to use his 39 to boost their average accepted numbers.

+1 Wouldn't have thought of that.

 

[Cleavername]

this thread just gave me hope. u guis dont even know how this forum can in the morning crush my dreams and on that same day at night can inject life back in me. i am still really glad i found this forum lol.

 

[latrala2300]

If the trend follows... a 30 will not suffice.

This echoes my original sentiments more clearly.

http://www.darwinsfinance.com/median-mean-definition/

Scroll down a tad and read the Warren Buffet Example (the second set of blue text that you'll see). You may not think that median is more reliable than mean after all. I think mean is the better one to look at in terms of the MCAT.

The blue section states that the mean is an unreliable measurement of income for Buffet's town because while the median hovers at around 80k, the mean is >1M. How does that support your argument that the mean is better to consider?

When you look at the MSAR, keep in mind that the average score for accepted applicants is going to be a lot higher than the average for matriculants from school to school. Sure, every school is going to accept the guy with the 39. Eventually he'll only go one place, but every school that accepted him gets to use his 39 to boost their average accepted numbers.

Ah good point. While this increases hopes, the trend remains alarming. The statistic that used to be 30 (inclusive of the high flyers)--one that the magical "get a 30" adage is based on--is now 32.

 

[apumic]

This echoes my original sentiments more clearly.



The blue section states that the mean is an unreliable measurement of income for Buffet's town because while the median hovers at around 80k, the mean is >1M. How does that support your argument that the mean is better to consider?



Ah good point. While this increases hopes, the trend remains alarming. The statistic that used to be 30 (inclusive of the high flyers)--one that the magical "get a 30" adage is based on--is now 32.

The reality, though, is that neither median nor mean has been a 30 in quite a few yrs. It's hovered in the 31-32 range for quite some time. IIRC, a 30 will still get you a very good chance at an acceptance (per the MCAT grid) w/ a solid GPA and ECs, so I would still consider 30+ to be a strong applicant.

 

[rhesuspieces]

http://www.darwinsfinance.com/median-mean-definition/

Scroll down a tad and read the Warren Buffet Example (the second set of blue text that you'll see). You may not think that median is more reliable than mean after all. I think mean is the better one to look at in terms of the MCAT.

I think you switched your terms here. The example shows that the median is the better measure.

 

[LoveTheRunner]

guess it depends on your meaning of safe. a 30 from cali isn't a 30 from Oklahoma with the way state schools work. though i generally agree that i think a 32 should probably be the new standard.

also, if more people retake a lower score, wouldn't that artificially raise the number of people scoring above average in a given year, ie a student scores 24 in January, retakes in May and scores a 30. Granted they are part of both sides of the curve for a given test, but you now have a better score in the applicant pool. For this reason alone I feel that you probably need to go a little above a 30 which isn't that much above the test's mean/median/whatever

 

[Techmed07]

guess it depends on your meaning of safe. a 30 from cali isn't a 30 from Oklahoma with the way state schools work. though i generally agree that i think a 32 should probably be the new standard.

also, if more people retake a lower score, wouldn't that artificially raise the number of people scoring above average in a given year, ie a student scores 24 in January, retakes in May and scores a 30. Granted they are part of both sides of the curve for a given test, but you now have a better score in the applicant pool. For this reason alone I feel that you probably need to go a little above a 30 which isn't that much above the test's mean/median/whatever

Yup. This is spot on long gone are the days where you could only sit for the MCAT at most twice a year. Now with multiple testing adminstrations a 30 is not enough. 32-33 is the new "30". As I think we will this when stats come out next year.

 

[VikingLegacy]

.

 

[the duck]

I'm gonna become a janitor. easier. FML

 

[Techmed07]

Thank you. Sitting on my 33, this thread almost scared the HELL out of me!

I have a 33 as well and was estatic at first but I soon realize how average scoring in the 88ish to 91ish percentile is when compared those who are accepted....painfully average.

 

[wanderer]

they use median for the center tendency in this case because of skew... juss sayin

This comes up too often. Median is generally more useful than mean. However since there is a closed and relatively narrow range for the MCAT (3-45, but really 21-45 is more realistic for the total range and 95%+ are ~26-40 so there are no extreme outliers) the difference between the two should not be too large.

 

[StudyShy]

I must...get...a...40...or...bust!

 

[VikingLegacy]

.

 

[Techmed07]

Undergrads' A- = applicants' C

So true.

 

[Ursa]

I think you switched your terms here. The example shows that the median is the better measure.

The blue section states that the mean is an unreliable measurement of income for Buffet's town because while the median hovers at around 80k, the mean is >1M. How does that support your argument that the mean is better to consider?

I see where we were all thinking different things. The way I saw it was that an MCAT score depends on a lot of variables, meaning a given test taker would have the possibility of getting the extremely high score or the extremely low score. With that said, the result could be on either end of the spectrum or right in the middle. Maybe I followed a random trail of thoughts in my head, but I made sense of it as supporting the claim that mean is better than median in the MCAT discussion. Since the people who got paid 80K were already established, I related them to people who had already taken the MCAT, etc. I guess it's safe to say it was one of those things that sounded better in my head.

Maybe that story didn't illustrate my point very well though. Re-reading it, I see that it could be confusing the way I tried using it. Good catch guys.

I still stand beside the notion that mean is a much more useful statistic for the MCAT than median.

 

[huyem12]

Thank you. Sitting on my 33, this thread almost scared the HELL out of me!

Don't be frightened. It's still better than my 31 😉

Honestly though, MCAT scores are just numbers that more or less just say whether you're a good standardized test-taker. It's only a predictor of what you'll get on your USMLE step I. I personally don't think it's a very accurate predictor of how well you do in medical school since it's only one test.

Besides, with the impending shortage of physicians in the next 15 years and the rate of the population growing and aging, I doubt that medical schools will get more and more selective, especially over one number (the MCATs). It just doesn't make sense.


If you have a decent GPA, you are still likely to get in a very good institution with a 30 MCAT. It really comes down to your ECs, personal statement, and interviewing skills. I don't get why people aren't more freaked out about interviews??

 

[Adaggiote]

Not unless you are in Jamp....

 

[AceXIII]

Don't be frightened. It's still better than my 31 😉

Honestly though, MCAT scores are just numbers that more or less just say whether you're a good standardized test-taker. It's only a predictor of what you'll get on your USMLE step I. I personally don't think it's a very accurate predictor of how well you do in medical school since it's only one test.

Besides, with the impending shortage of physicians in the next 15 years and the rate of the population growing and aging, I doubt that medical schools will get more and more selective, especially over one number (the MCATs). It just doesn't make sense.


If you have a decent GPA, you are still likely to get in a very good institution with a 30 MCAT. It really comes down to your ECs, personal statement, and interviewing skills. I don't get why people aren't more freaked out about interviews??

You're somewhat contradicting yourself here. On one hand, you admit that MCAT scores are "only" a predictor of USMLE Step 1 Scores. The same scores that, taken with your clinical grades, are considered the most important aspect in determining your "success" in medical school. Then you say that the MCAT is not a good predictor of success, when your previous statement clearly suggested it was.

It's a whole other discussion whether the correlation between MCAT and USMLE scores is actually real.

 

[latrala2300]

You're somewhat contradicting yourself here. On one hand, you admit that MCAT scores are "only" a predictor of USMLE Step 1 Scores. The same scores that, taken with your clinical grades, are considered the most important aspect in determining your "success" in medical school. Then you say that the MCAT is not a good predictor of success, when your previous statement clearly suggested it was.

It's a whole other discussion whether the correlation between MCAT and USMLE scores is actually real.

And regardless of whether the MCAT is good or bad, it's here to say. A correlation, even if statistically significant, doesn't do anything to doom one's future or ensure success, so I'm always surprised at how hell-bent people get about it.

 

[patel2]

I think for many, 30 just doesn't cut it anymore unless you have a really high gpa or other great aspects to your applicati.

 

[s1lver]

The day will come when 35 or maybe even a 38 will be the new standard. The old MCAT takers had it easy... 🙁

 

[Frazier]

The day will come when 35 or maybe even a 38 will be the new standard. The old MCAT takers had it easy... 🙁

+1

Wasn't the average only like 26 a couple decades ago? 🙁

 

[Drrrrrr. Celty]

+1

Wasn't the average only like 26 a couple decades ago? 🙁

Written v.s computer based. Like a few others mentioned before the computer based mcat allows many more chances to retake it before application.

 

[Drrrrrr. Celty]

The day will come when 35 or maybe even a 38 will be the new standard. The old MCAT takers had it easy... 🙁

That's if competition remains like it is right now. Medical student application amounts change through the years. If the levels of interested fall then the mcat average will probably fall as well.

 

[Charles_Carmichael]

The day will come when 35 or maybe even a 38 will be the new standard. The old MCAT takers had it easy... 🙁

I think that's pretty unlikely. The MCAT is one of the most objective ways to see whether an applicant is qualified academically to attend med school (better that GPA, in my opinion). If the avg. MCAT score keeps rising, they'll just ramp up the difficulty of the MCAT. I predict that the avg. will continue to hover around 30 for a long time (until the MCAT is significantly changed or removed from consideration for med school admissions).

 

[equios]

I think for many, 30 just doesn't cut it anymore unless you have a really high gpa or other great aspects to your application. I'm a 3.5/32 applicant, with decent ecs/lors, applied june 1, and am only sitting on 1 MD interview so far (and a couple DO's).

3.4/35, 3 interviews (1 interview at a top-20 school) 1 acceptance, all MD.

From what I have seen, the average for matriculants has ramped up to a 31.x from a prior of 30.x, so it has been a 1-point vertical shift. This shift seemed to have coincided nicely with the introduction of the CBT. In addition, I think the bump in matriculant scores in the past year or so may be due to the current economic times. Medicine has always been seen as a stable career choice, and with the sluggish economy and poor employment prospects for many graduates, more school and a shot at a very stable and respectable income (albeit with a lot of work involved) suddenly started to look a lot more appealing.

That said, if the median keeps rising, AAMC will make it harder. The target is to keep the median score on the MCAT at 24, and I'm sure they will adjust the test accordingly.

 

[Frazier]

The day will come when 35 or maybe even a 38 will be the new standard. The old MCAT takers had it easy... 🙁

I think that's pretty unlikely. The MCAT is one of the most objective ways to see whether an applicant is qualified academically to attend med school (better that GPA, in my opinion). If the avg. MCAT score keeps rising, they'll just ramp up the difficulty of the MCAT.

It appears as if you both are saying the same thing essentially: either the test will get more challenging than in the past ( = harder to score desirable score) or one will have to kick the competition's azz by a higher degree than previously required ( = harder to score desirable score).

...Either way, it ain't gettin no easier, yo.

 

[Charles_Carmichael]

It appears as if you both are saying the same thing essentially: either the test will get more challenging than in the past ( = harder to score desirable score) or one will have to kick the competition's azz by a higher degree than previously required ( = harder to score desirable score).

...Either way, it ain't gettin no easier, yo.

Yea, I see what you're saying. s1lver is essentially saying that the avg. MCAT score will increase (correct me if I'm wrong s1lver) while I'm saying that the MCAT difficulty will increase to ensure that the avg. stays around 30. Like you said, "it ain't gettin no easier, yo."

One could make the argument though, that becoming a physician will become less appealing (due to continually decreasing reimbursements, increasing administrative hassles, etc). This could have the side-effect of keeping the MCAT avg. around 30 without the difficulty of the test ramping up significantly as less people become interested in pursuing a career in medicine. This is purely speculative though, so I could be entirely wrong.

 

[Bacchus]

The reality, though, is that neither median nor mean has been a 30 in quite a few yrs. It's hovered in the 31-32 range for quite some time. IIRC, a 30 will still get you a very good chance at an acceptance (per the MCAT grid) w/ a solid GPA and ECs, so I would still consider 30+ to be a strong applicant.

I just can't agree with you. I think the tide has taken the 30 out to sea. I did not score a 30, but a 29 and had a rather solid application. I thought my 3.55/29 would get me something, but nope, not at all.

 

[vickpick]

I bet if SDN is shut down, the average will start going down.

Anyone agrees?

 

[Frazier]

i bet if sdn is shut down, the average will start going down.

Anyone agrees?

+9000

 

[Charles_Carmichael]

I bet if SDN is shut down, the average will start going down.

Anyone agrees?

Eh, I would say that the premeds who frequent SDN and the MCAT forums are in the minority compared to the population who takes the MCAT and applies to med school. I don't think it would make a significant impact on the MCAT avg.

Sorry for the serious response! 😀

 

[Techmed07]

Eh, I would say that the premeds who frequent SDN and the MCAT forums are in the minority compared to the population who takes the MCAT and applies to med school. I don't think it would make a significant impact on the MCAT avg.

Sorry for the serious response! 😀

Minority.. that apply but perhaps the majority that get accepted.

 

[apumic]

I just can't agree with you. I think the tide has taken the 30 out to sea. I did not score a 30, but a 29 and had a rather solid application. I thought my 3.55/29 would get me something, but nope, not at all.

The thing is you were significantly below avg on both GPA and MCAT. Your 3.55 is, unfortunately, on the low side. Coupled w/ a <30, I'm not surprised you didn't get much attention that time around. OTOH, if you'd had a 3.7/29 and not gotten a single interview, I'd think maybe your PS and/or LORs were the main issue. While 31-32 is now where the median lies (and has been for a number of years), a 30 coupled w/ a 3.65+ is going to be fairly competitive. Even some of the top 20-30 schools last yr had avg MCAT scores of "only" 32-33. If you apply broadly w/ a 30/3.65 and have an good/excellent PS, LORs, and ECs, you should have no trouble at least scoring some interviews. If you lack the latter 3, the former 2 won't get you past an interview no matter what your score is, anyway.