Is there a balance to the Medical field? What's the future?

[Pose]

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Something's been bugging me, although it probably shouldnt, but after lurking around for a while and reading countless threads about Anesthesiologists being replaced by CRNA's, Psychiatrists by Psychologists, FP by NP/PA..the lack of job openings for Pathology, too large of a Derm and Plastics increase, yadda yadda..where, if there is one, is the balance? I read there are 19,000 new doctors per year (16,000 MD- 3,000 DO), does this mean eventually there will be less demand for physicians? Maybe an over-flow, putting people "out of business"?

Since there is such concern for specialities such as FP, Anesthesiology, Pathology, Psychiatry, Dermatology, Plastics..whatever else I'm probably missing, what are the catches for more "demanding", less attractive, but high paying specialities such as Neurosurgery, Ortho, Urology, and Vascular? Is there a dim-future for each of those, aswell? Or possibly for every speciality?

So, is there a balance at all? How many physicians retire yearly? How many end up not practicing..what other factors are there?

I'm also interested in your personal (which all of this might boil down to, anyways) views about the balance, and future of medicine and surgery.

 

[Uegis]

Do something you enjoy and you'll be fine. Unless all you care about is money, do what you love and want to do. Physicians will always be in demand. Just a matter of which fields gets nicely compensated, but I'd much rather do something I enjoy than be stuck in something i detest and make a lot of money.

Wait until you go through your 3rd/4th year, then worry about this. You're not even in school yet and you are thinking already. Relax and go with the flow.

 

[Fusion]

Something's been bugging me, although it probably shouldnt, but after lurking around for a while and reading countless threads about Anesthesiologists being replaced by CRNA's, Psychiatrists by Psychologists, FP by NP/PA..the lack of job openings for Pathology, too large of a Derm and Plastics increase, yadda yadda..where, if there is one, is the balance? I read there are 19,000 new doctors per year (16,000 MD- 3,000 DO), does this mean eventually there will be less demand for physicians? Maybe an over-flow, putting people "out of business"?

Since there is such concern for specialities such as FP, Anesthesiology, Pathology, Psychiatry, Dermatology, Plastics..whatever else I'm probably missing, what are the catches for more "demanding", less attractive, but high paying specialities such as Neurosurgery, Ortho, Urology, and Vascular? Is there a dim-future for each of those, aswell? Or possibly for every speciality?

So, is there a balance at all? How many physicians retire yearly? How many end up not practicing..what other factors are there?

I'm also interested in your personal (which all of this might boil down to, anyways) views about the balance, and future of medicine and surgery.

There is no catch to those specialties that you listed. It's that as medicine evolves as a whole, it also becomes more efficient. A lot of things in medicine that have historically been treated by doctors are nowadays being treated by ppl who neither have nor need a medical degree, namely Nurse Practicioners, PA's, CRNA's, etc. Do you really need 7 years of post-college education/training to diagnose and treat a cold? No, and professionals like NP's are starting to become more involved in such cases. 15 minutes w/ a doctor and a $100 office visit for such a thing is very cost-ineffective, which is why the allied health professionals are taking more of a role in medicine, thus allowing anesthesioloists to turn their attention to other things. The physicians are in a way being "reserved" for the more important things.
Do you need a medical degree to practice "bread and butter" anesthesiology? Not really. CRNA's are more than capable, and the anesthesia docs are there to supervise and perhaps work the tougher cases. This also allows a specialty itself to evolve. For example, pain management is a rapidly developing sub-specialty as anesthesia. One reason that it is evolving is b/c CRNA's are becoming more prevalent and taking a more active role in medicine. As for psychology vs. psychiatry, I really don't know. The only thing I can tell you is that psychologists are probably much more trained in the workings of the mind and how to counsel a patient than are psychiatrists. Honestly, I think it takes an especially compassionate and capable person to become a psychiatrist. Unfortunately, it's one of the easiest residencies to get. As a result, a lot of ppl enter psychiatry by default and the specialty may suffer as a result.

But surgery in general is safe. No one will replace the neurosurgeons, orthopods, urologists, and there will always be a need for general surgeons. But the boundaries among some non-surgical specialties are becoming less defined. For instance, interventional cardiology and radiology are starting to overlap on some things, and cardiologists in the near future will be doing many things that are done by c-t surgeons nowadays.