Is there data on one vs. multiple interviews?

[KnightDoc]

I think its certainly possible (but unlikely) that @voxveritatisetlucis might have gotten an II because an adcom accidentally missed his disclosure. While its very unlikely, applying to so many schools across two cycles makes it a little more likely that the unlikely will happen at least once, at one school. I find it near impossible, however, that such a fact would be skipped before acceptance review.

There's no real point in speculating though. If it comes up in his interview, then he knows they saw it. If it doesn't, then he knows they probably did not (as something that major that deeply affected his life is extremely unlikely to be considered unimportant).
When is your interview?

Agreed about acceptance review. Respectfully disagree about anything being missed. This is high stakes poker, Schools only have so many II slots. The people doing the reviews know what they are doing.

150+ schools review as many as 10,000+ applications each. This still does not make it likely that the unlikely ever happens with respect to criminal disclosures. Keep in mind, this is not a ton of paper sitting on someone's desk. The apps are all online. Screening for IAs, including criminal disclosures, is one of the simplest, most basic, and most important screens they do. They just don't forget to do them, for everyone, in a nanosecond when an application arrives.

Some schools won't send a secondary without reviewing them. It's inconceivable that anyone would send an II without a thorough review. And it would be impossible to believe negligence to imagine an A being issued without considering it.

Things like criminal disclosures don't get "missed." Whether or not it comes up in an interview, I promise you it was seen. It is entirely possible that it might not be available to whoever is doing the interview, so it very well might not come up, as big a deal as it is.

What happened is that whoever did the II review at this one school decided the applicant was worth one of those limited slots. This means the disclosure is not an auto-R at that school, but does not mean the candidate will ultimately pass muster with the entire committee.

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[KnightDoc]

1) the public relations, general counsel, and management of the health system have resources for the same that would dwarf anything private attorney could bring up. No matter what was disclosed on the application, if any criminal record or serious IA was found either on background report or with due diligence from dean of student affairs, I would have those presented

4) And the courts will almost always defer to the school, as they will not substitute their understanding for the expertise of the school in who should take on the important task of being a physician.

Wow! Sounds pretty intimidating. Based on your descriptions, it's pretty shocking that medical malpractice is a thing!

Same thing with price transparency for medical procedures. Given how awesome their legal and PR resources are, and how intense their interest is in maintaining the status quo, we are unlikely to see any changes in our lifetimes, right?

At the end of the day, no one is seriously questioning a school's autonomy to choose a class, which is what all of your points above are really about. The fact remains, however, that right is right and wrong is wrong, and a powerful institution like a medical school cannot simply do whatever the hell it wants, just because it has a lot of money for lawyers and because it is training physicians.

They have an obligation to actually consider the information they have at their disposal at the time they are making decisions. If they ask a disclosure question, receive a full and complete response, and ignore it, there should be negative consequences, for them. Right is right. I find it doubtful that a court would defer to their expertise in response to a claim for damages based on their negligence during the application process.

All of this is fascinating, but, at the end of the day, you have seen a lot in your years in the business. Have you EVER seen an acceptance rescinded due to a disclosure made at the time of application that wasn't considered until after an acceptance was issued? If not, what are we talking about here?

 

[voxveritatisetlucis]

I received another today(or yesterday now depending on which time zone) so I think that the cycle might be a bit delayed as hypothesized. I’m grateful that some schools are at least giving me some level of consideration and the possibility of a second chance despite past mistakes

 

[Med Ed]

If not, what are we talking about here?

We just like to keep you occupied.

 

[KnightDoc]

We just like to keep you occupied.

Mission accomplished!

 

[DoctorFate]

I received another today(or yesterday now depending on which time zone) so I think that the cycle might be a bit delayed as hypothesized. I’m grateful that some schools are at least giving me some level of consideration and the possibility of a second chance despite past mistakes

Is this approximately the same rank as UVA and you also have no ties? If so, it's a wonderful start to have two unis with no connection to you interview you. 2 IIs in August tell me you'll probably end up with at least 6 IIs total (based on mine and friends' experiences).

If you don't mind answering, what did you change between this application and last year?

 

[voxveritatisetlucis]

Is this approximately the same rank as UVA and you also have no ties? If so, it's a wonderful start to have two unis with no connection to you interview you. 2 IIs in August tell me you'll probably end up with at least 6 IIs total (based on mine and friends' experiences).

If you don't mind answering, what did you change between this application and last year?

I’m not crazy about direct comparisons between individual schools because it feels like somewhat of a knock on “lower ranked” school, but according to usnews it comfortably falls within T20 category whereas uva is officially ranked 30ish iirc (though I would consider it in the t20 peer group). I was pretty shocked when I got the invite email to be honest.

I would say that letters may be better but can’t be sure. I’m guessing they were always pretty good, but before applying I explained past mistakes to letter writers before they made updates (ex. “I understand you may not longer feel comfortable writing a letter of support given new circumstances” etc.) and many seemed to respect my transparency and resolve to get up after being knocked down but I don’t know if this came across in their letters . Also, I put a lot more effort into secondary essays knowing that they would be more important.

 

[DoctorFate]

I’m not crazy about direct comparisons between individual schools because it feels like somewhat of a knock on “lower ranked” school, but according to usnews it comfortably falls within T20 category whereas uva is officially ranked 30ish iirc (though I would consider it in the t20 peer group). I was pretty shocked when I got the invite email to be honest.

I would say that letters may be better but can’t be sure. I’m guessing they were always pretty good, but before applying I explained past mistakes to letter writers before they made updates (ex. “I understand you may not longer feel comfortable writing a letter of support given new circumstances” etc.) and many seemed to respect my transparency and resolve to get up after being knocked down but I don’t know if this came across in their letters . Also, I put a lot more effort into secondary essays knowing that they would be more important.

Wow, I wish you the best. So many thought your application would be DOA. I remember being a more optimistic, but I did not expect this level of achievement. Keep us updated! I'm in almost the exact same position as you rn (interview and school ranking wise).

 

[voxveritatisetlucis]

I talked to a lawyer today and he is pretty confident he can get it sealed due to some obscure state statues. Of course, if I don’t get in this cycle would it even be beneficial for next cycle? Would I have to mark the box still or do sealed records still have to be marked on amcas? I feel as if not marking it after doing it in a previous cycle would get flagged or something automatically?

In the meantime, what should I be doing now to prepare for next cycle given the less than ideal circumstance of only having 2 opportunities to convert? I took an FL to gauge how much MCAT studying I would have to do and I got a 520 (521 on real exam) I think that after doing some intensive prep I could get a 523+ ( I have to retake due to expiration if I apply again). A publication is not likely as I am working in finance not research. I’m struggling to find other ways I could enhance my application for next year other than a sheer volume increase (currently am at 2/45ish, 2 holds, 1 R). I have been trying to find some remote research I could do at night and weekends involving computational work but haven’t had any takers.

I haven’t even received an interview at the in state school that interviews like 1/2 of IS applicants. Is it too late to add a few DO schools?

 

[DoctorFate]

I talked to a lawyer today and he is pretty confident he can get it sealed due to some obscure state statues. Of course, if I don’t get in this cycle would it even be beneficial for next cycle? Would I have to mark the box still or do sealed records still have to be marked on amcas? I feel as if not marking it after doing it in a previous cycle would get flagged or something automatically?

In the meantime, what should I be doing now to prepare for next cycle given the less than ideal circumstance of only having 2 opportunities to convert? I took an FL to gauge how much MCAT studying I would have to do and I got a 520 (521 on real exam) I think that after doing some intensive prep I could get a 523+ ( I have to retake due to expiration if I apply again). A publication is not likely as I am working in finance not research. I’m struggling to find other ways I could enhance my application for next year other than a sheer volume increase (currently am at 2/45ish, 2 holds, 1 R). I have been trying to find some remote research I could do at night and weekends involving computational work but haven’t had any takers.

I haven’t even received an interview at the in state school that interviews like 1/2 of IS applicants. Is it too late to add a few DO schools?

I feel like you've been on sdn quite frequently this cycle, so I'm not sure why you believe you're in a "less than ideal circumstance" and only have "2 opportunities to convert". The vast majority of interviews go out in September and October. You know this. Only about 10-15% of interviews have already been given. Around a third of the schools I applied to haven't even started interviewing and another third have just a few reported IIs in the tracker.

Just for comparison, I have a 3.99/520. Three publications, several leadership positions, clinical hours, and volunteering hours. I currently have 3 interviews, two of which are ranked very close to your two. My third one is possibly at that same in state school you mentioned (interviews 1/2 of IS applicants). Every single advisor and mock interviewer I talk to have been thrilled to hear that I've already gotten multiple interviews and believe its an indication of many more to come. I expect (and hope for) at least 10 by the end of this cycle. Of course, it's no guarantee and these might end up being the only 3 I get, but that is unlikely.

Three more comparisons-
First: Last cycle, my first II was from an IS school in mid-October. I ultimately ended up with three IIs. Now, I have 3 IIs by mid-August (and at higher ranked schools). Obviously, that gives me more hope.

Second: One of my close friends last cycle had 2 interviews at this point (factoring in a 2 week delay). She ultimately ended up interviewing at Harvard, Johns Hopkins, NYU, Mayo, Pitt, Baylor, Lerner, and UVA (and obviously many more outside of these).

Third: Two of my friends were accepted to Penn Med last cycle. One got her first II on August 31st. The other got her first II in mid-September.

So TL;DR don't worry yet haha.

 

[voxveritatisetlucis]

Up to three and will officially stop worrying about receiving/not receiving any more. If I can’t convert on one out of three, it’s on me for not prepping hard enough for interviews.

 

[Goro]

I feel as if not marking it after doing it in a previous cycle would get flagged or something automatically?

At schools you've applied to for the second time, the lack of the checked box would be noted.

In the meantime, what should I be doing now to prepare for next cycle given the less than ideal circumstance of only having 2 opportunities to convert?

You should work on PLan B instead, because med schools would be telling you that a career in Medicine is not doable.

After several cycles with your stats, Adcoms will also wonder why you haven't been accepted somewhere already.

 

[srirachamayonnaise]

Up to three and will officially stop worrying about receiving/not receiving any more. If I can’t convert on one out of three, it’s on me for not prepping hard enough for interviews

It looks like you will end up with around 10 II's.

 

[voxveritatisetlucis]

At schools you've applied to for the second time, the lack of the checked box would be noted.

You should work on PLan B instead, because med schools would be telling you that a career in Medicine is not doable.

After several cycles with your stats, Adcoms will also wonder why you haven't been accepted somewhere already.

I work full time now and although it’s not partner track I should have enough deal experience if things don’t work out to lateral to another firm. I just wanted to give the med school process another try. Better use of the money than a vacation or something

If it is not doable then why even waste an interview slot. I am certain that at least one school had me write a lengthier essay about it on the secondary. So the adcom there is defintely aware. I have also set up free consultations with lawyers in each state to see how it would affect the ability to pursue residency. The Virginia attorney said it wouldn’t be an issue unless it involved multiple/repeat offenses. Not sure about the other two states yet. I’m pretty sure that you even said your school has allowed people in with similar offenses.

it will be devastating if what @Goro said ends up being true, but I guess potential disappointment comes with the territory of applying in the first plce

 

[KnightDoc]

At schools you've applied to for the second time, the lack of the checked box would be noted.

You should work on PLan B instead, because med schools would be telling you that a career in Medicine is not doable.

After several cycles with your stats, Adcoms will also wonder why you haven't been accepted somewhere already.

Would they? Places where he is a reapplicant would know exactly why he wasn't already accepted, but, if he manages to get his record sealed, the other schools would not necessarily know he's already been through several cycles, no?

 

[DoctorFate]

Would they? Places where he is a reapplicant would know exactly why he wasn't already accepted, but, if he manages to get his record sealed, the other schools would not necessarily know he's already been through several cycles, no?

Most school ask if you're a reapplicant to any medical school, but they very rarely ask how many times you applied. So to those schools, they might see him as a 1 time reapplicant.

 

[KnightDoc]

Most school ask if you're a reapplicant to any medical school, but they very rarely ask how many times you applied. So to those schools, they might see him as a 1 time reapplicant.

Not true! I applied to a lot of schools and I did not see this at most, if any, schools.

They all ask if you've matriculated anywhere else, but not if you've ever applied. Quite frankly, that's none of their business!

Another school's decision, in the current or any past cycle, is NOT a legitimate metric for a school to consider in evaluating an applicant, and is a big reason AMCAS does not simply allow all schools to just see where else you have applied, and what your results are.

It's certainly legit with respect to the specific school you are applying to, which is why they look to see if you have improved from your prior application. But, if you haven't applied to that school before, they have nothing to compare your application to, and the fact that you were rejected by other schools previously is none of their business. Which schools even ask, since I haven't noticed it in all of my applications?

 

[DoctorFate]

I applied to a lot of schools and I did not see this at most, if any, schools. They all ask if you've matriculated anywhere else, but not if you've ever applied. Quite frankly, that's none of their business! Another school's decision, in the current or any past cycle, is NOT a legitimate metric for a school to consider in evaluating an applicant.

Huh, that's interesting. I, too, applied to a lot of schools (42) and I would say the substantial majority (at least 25, maybe 30) asked me if I had ever applied to a medical school.

 

[KnightDoc]

Huh, that's interesting. I, too, applied to a lot of schools (42) and I would say the substantial majority (at least 25, maybe 30) asked me if I had ever applied to a medical school.

Are you sure they didn't ask if you ever matriculated?

 

[DoctorFate]

Are you sure they didn't ask if you ever matriculated?

Many asked that as well. I'll check a few and get back to you tomorrow. Off the top of my head, I believe Rochester and Einstein asked if I'd ever applied.

 

[KnightDoc]

Many asked that as well. I'll check a few and get back to you tomorrow. Off the top of my head, I believe Rochester and Einstein asked if I'd ever applied.

No need. I just checked a few of my schools, and see it where I didn't notice it before. Not a majority, which just depends on school mix, but definitely more than none. FWIW, it looks like the higher the tier of school, the less inclined they seem to go there!

I honestly don't know what I'd do as a reapplicant, since it really is none of their business. Hopefully, I won't have to find out!

 

[DoctorFate]

W

No need. I just checked a few of my schools, and see it where I didn't notice it before. Not a majority, which just depends on school mix, but definitely more than none. FWIW, it looks like the higher the tier of school, the less inclined they seem to go there!

I honestly don't know what I'd do as a reapplicant, since it really is none of their business. Hopefully, I won't have to find out!

Whats unfortunate is there's no compilation of schools that ask that, so for reapplicants trying to avoid the question you might end up paying the primary fee to a school you don't want to apply to.

 

[KnightDoc]

W

Whats unfortunate is there's no compilation of schools that ask that, so for reapplicants trying to avoid the question you might end up paying the primary fee to a school you don't want to apply to.

Yup, but that wouldn't be a deal breaker for me.

If I wanted to apply to the school, I'd either tell them what they want to know (I honestly don't know why they even care, since they don't have a prior application to compare to), or not, under the justification that it's none of their business, so I'm engaging in a little self help, fully aware of the potential consequences of getting caught (oops, I clicked on the wrong button! ), which seems remote given that the central repository for such information does not share it. You'd literally just have to let LOR writers know that you don't want to answer the question, and why, and tell them not to reference your prior unsuccessful cycle in their letters.

 

[Looksoktome]

Related to 4) any thoughts on why applications are up so much? @gonnif

 

[KnightDoc]

Related to 4) any thoughts on why applications are up so much? @gonnif

I'll save him the trouble of cutting and pasting, or retyping, since I am an fanboy who hangs on his every word!

Application volume this cycle

Hi all, just out of curiosity is there any way to tell what the application load is like this cycle? Following last cycle's massive increase in applicants I am wondering what this year will look like. Are there any admissions podcasts/blogs/information sources that discuss the state of the...

forums.studentdoctor.net

 

[Goro]

Related to 4) any thoughts on why applications are up so much? @gonnif

Weak economies are good for med school apps

 

[voxveritatisetlucis]

Based on the averages and a naive definition of probability, there’s a 6% chance that none of these interviews leads to an acceptance. Of course that’s assuming they’re independent events with no correlated outcomes (which isn’t true)

 

[KnightDoc]

Based on the averages and a naive definition of probability, there’s a 6% chance that none of these interviews leads to an acceptance. Of course that’s assuming they’re independent events with no correlated outcomes (which isn’t true)

EXACTLY. So what's your point? You are a very special case, and you already know this. There is no model that will be able to correctly predict your outcome, and the so-called experts here have already been proven wrong, so just what are you looking for here?

You are a brilliant, charming guy who already has a track record of success here. Some committee, somewhere, is either going to take a chance on you and give you a break, baggage and all, or they won't. There is no "average" or "probability" that can quantify that for you. In fact, your experience will probably be used in the future by others in a similar situation to predict their likelihood of success.

All you can do is try to relax and wait and see what happens. You have already proven to be unable to do this, although it has also already been proven that it's your only viable course of action. Not asking a bunch of strangers to handicap your probability of success. Not throwing a bunch of additional applications into a bunch of random schools. And not spending every waking moment worrying.

 

[srirachamayonnaise]

Based on the averages and a naive definition of probability, there’s a 6% chance that none of these interviews leads to an acceptance. Of course that’s assuming they’re independent events with no correlated outcomes (which isn’t true)

based on that, you have 7 II's. So you should be fine. Stop worrying about the probabilities. I did the same while applying but at the end, everything worked out well.

 

[DoctorFate]

EXACTLY. So what's your point? You are a very special case, and you already know this. There is no model that will be able to correctly predict your outcome, and the so-called experts here have already been proven wrong, so just what are you looking for here?

You are a brilliant, charming guy who already has a track record of success here. Some committee, somewhere, is either going to take a chance on you and give you a break, baggage and all, or they won't. There is no "average" or "probability" that can quantify that for you. In fact, your experience will probably be used in the future by others in a similar situation to predict their likelihood of success.

All you can do is try to relax and wait and see what happens. You have already proven to be unable to do this, although it has also already been proven that it's your only viable course of action. Not asking a bunch of strangers to handicap your probability of success. Not throwing a bunch of additional applications into a bunch of random schools. And not spending every waking moment worrying.

Actually, that second to last suggestion may be one of the more useful things he can do. Not sure exactly how much it would help his chances, but it could do something.

 

[KnightDoc]

Actually, that second to last suggestion may be one of the more useful things he can do. Not sure exactly how much it would help his chances, but it could do something.

I respectfully disagree. Randomly throwing applications at schools that are not a good fit rarely works out for anyone. Good candidates don't need it, and it doesn't make weak ones any stronger.

 

[DoctorFate]

based on that, you have 7 II's. So you should be fine. Stop worrying about the probabilities. I did the same while applying but at the end, everything worked out well.

He has 3. Assuming standard interview acceptance rate (40%), there's about a 20% chance he won't get in (again, these are population based probabilities, and definitely not likely to apply well to individuals). However, since he got 3 by the end of August, he's likely to end up with 7-10 by the end of the cycle.

I'm not sure where he got 6% from. Perhaps he's looking at school specific data and his II schools have a high conversion rate.

 

[DoctorFate]

I respectfully disagree. Randomly throwing applications at schools that are not a good fit rarely works out for anyone. Good candidates don't need it, and it doesn't make weak ones any stronger.

Based on personal experience from last cycle, I would have to disagree here. My roommate's sole acceptance (4 IIs) turned out to be a school that he added on a whim mid-September, submitted with several typos, and had absolutely no intention of going to. He had no ties to it, and it was halfway across the country. Two of the schools that interviewed me last cycle (I withdrew before decision) were also pretty low on my priority list.

I'm not saying it's going to be a wonderful approach or anything, but applying to 10 more schools definitely increases your chance of admission, even if its by as little as a few percent. Of course, it's up to the individual to determine whether the time and money invested is worth it. And tbh, half of fit just comes down to the effort you take to tailor your secondary to the school.

 

[KnightDoc]

Based on personal experience from last cycle, I would have to disagree here. My roommate's sole acceptance (4 IIs) turned out to be a school that he added on a whim mid-September, submitted with several typos, and had absolutely no intention of going to. He had no ties to it, and it was halfway across the country. Two of the schools that interviewed me last cycle (I withdrew before decision) were also pretty low on my priority list.

I'm not saying it's going to be a wonderful approach or anything, but applying to 10 more schools definitely increases your chance of admission, even if its by as little as a few percent. Of course, it's up to the individual to determine whether the time and money invested is worth it. And tbh, half of fit just comes down to the effort you take to tailor your secondary to the school.

Okay, but to me that's nothing more than a random n=1. Where does it end? Applying to every single school, because there is always a theoretical chance of success?

For most people, a well thought out list of 20-30 schools will yield exactly the same results as piling on more schools (1, 5, 10, 20, whatever), on a whim, last minute, with several typos, absolutely no interest, no ties, halfway across the country. JMHO as someone who hasn't done it, and wouldn't waste his time or money.

 

[deleted555445]

He has 3. Assuming standard interview acceptance rate (40%), there's about a 20% chance he won't get in (again, these are population based probabilities, and definitely not likely to apply well to individuals). However, since he got 3 by the end of August, he's likely to end up with 7-10 by the end of the cycle.

I'm not sure where he got 6% from. Perhaps he's looking at school specific data and his II schools have a high conversion rate.

I think one of his schools is UVA, which has something crazy like a 75% post-II rate

One of the other things to think about is that at each school a certain number of people will either not accept an interview or will withdraw from consideration post-interview but before they are formally accepted or rejected. The former will likely happen less this year because there is a lower barrier to taking an interview, but imagine you get into your top choice on October 15th and you decide you will go there no matter what the finances say, maybe you'll decline all interviews going forward. Or you get waitlisted at school X but into school Y, and you decide to withdraw from the waitlist. If you decide to a) attend the interview and b) stick it out until the end, your odds of a post-II A are somewhat higher than the published rate.

None of this is useful information because statistics mean very little to the individual, but just something I think about to make myself feel better about ~30-40% post-II A rates.

 

[DoctorFate]

Okay, but to me that's nothing more than a random n=1. Where does it end? Applying to every single school, because there is always a theoretical chance of success?

For most people, a well thought out list of 20-30 schools will yield exactly the same results as piling on more schools (1, 5, 10, 20, whatever), on a whim, last minute, with several typos, absolutely no interest, no ties, halfway across the country. JMHO as someone who hasn't done it, and wouldn't waste his time or money.

haha yea, I didn't say it was a great idea.

I think one of his schools is UVA, which has something crazy like a 75% post-II rate

One of the other things to think about is that at each school a certain number of people will either not accept an interview or will withdraw from consideration post-interview but before they are formally accepted or rejected. The former will likely happen less this year because there is a lower barrier to taking an interview, but imagine you get into your top choice on October 15th and you decide you will go there no matter what the finances say, maybe you'll decline all interviews going forward. Or you get waitlisted at school X but into school Y, and you decide to withdraw from the waitlist. If you decide to a) attend the interview and b) stick it out until the end, your odds of a post-II A are somewhat higher than the published rate.

None of this is useful information because statistics mean very little to the individual, but just something I think about to make myself feel better about ~30-40% post-II A rates.

I just looked into UVA, and their in-state post-II acceptance rate is crazy. It looks like almost everyone that interviews is accepted (133 II, 77 matriculate). Plus, you have to consider that they accept more than matriculate, so you're looking at an 85%+ acceptance rate I think. OP is OOS, so this doesn't quite apply, but still...

 

[KnightDoc]

haha yea, I didn't say it was a great idea.

I just looked into UVA, and their in-state post-II acceptance rate is crazy. It looks like almost everyone that interviews is accepted (133 II, 77 matriculate). Plus, you have to consider that they accept more than matriculate, so you're looking at an 85%+ acceptance rate I think. OP is OOS, so this doesn't quite apply, but still...

This is all very fascinating, but totally irrelevant to OP's situation. OP is an outlier on top of an outlier. He has an extraordinarily attractive application coupled with an extraordinarily bad IA. All of the adcoms on SDN declared him DOA at their schools, and his experience thus far at most of the schools he applied to has validated this viewpoint, particularly given the unfavorable comparison to his results at this point in a prior cycle.

That said, he received a few bites so far, and the cycle is far from over. Multiple people clearly thought he was at least worth a coveted II slot. It remains to be seen whether or not he will be able to close the deal with an entire adcom, but historic averages at any school, either IS or OOS, will do nothing to inform OP (or us ) as to what is likely to happen to him, so this speculation truly is a waste of all of our time. And yet, like moths to a flame, we cannot control ourselves!

 

[DoctorFate]

This is all very fascinating, but totally irrelevant to OP's situation. OP is an outlier on top of an outlier. He has an extraordinarily attractive application coupled with an extraordinarily bad IA. All of the adcoms on SDN declared him DOA at their schools, and his experience thus far at most of the schools he applied to has validated this viewpoint, particularly given the unfavorable comparison to his results at this point in a prior cycle.

That said, he received a few bites so far, and the cycle is far from over. Multiple people clearly thought he was at least worth a coveted II slot. It remains to be seen whether or not he will be able to close the deal with an entire adcom, but historic averages at any school, either IS or OOS, will do nothing to inform OP (or us ) as to what is likely to happen to him, so this speculation truly is a waste of all of our time. And yet, like moths to a flame, we cannot control ourselves!

I wouldn't say that his experience this far at most schools has validated that viewpoint, unless you're only talking about last cycle. Having 3 IIs in August itself is pretty massive accomplishment, and he could receive many more in the months to come (or not, but this is definitely still early in the cycle).

But yes, haha, speculation is largely useless. I didn't OP's situation was as dire as the adcoms painted it, but even I certainly didn't expect this level of schools to be interested in him, especially given last cycle's results.

 

[voxveritatisetlucis]

It’s kinda weird because one of my IIs is to a school that previously rejected me before II. On the other hand, none of the schools that accepted me before invited me back.

Can I reach out to the deans that accepted me before or would it look bad? Should I mention other interviews or no?

 

[Goro]

It’s kinda weird because one of my IIs is to a school that previously rejected me before II. On the other hand, none of the schools that accepted me before invited me back.

1) Can I reach out to the deans that accepted me before or would it look bad? 2) Should I mention other interviews or no?

1) It would look bad.
2) No

 

[deleted1084643]

It’s kinda weird because one of my IIs is to a school that previously rejected me before II. On the other hand, none of the schools that accepted me before invited me back.

Can I reach out to the deans that accepted me before or would it look bad? Should I mention other interviews or no?

You should prep for the interviews you have and give time time. Hasn’t this thread run its course?

 

[KnightDoc]

It’s kinda weird because one of my IIs is to a school that previously rejected me before II. On the other hand, none of the schools that accepted me before invited me back.

Can I reach out to the deans that accepted me before or would it look bad? Should I mention other interviews or no?

You already reached out by applying. Beyond making it awkward, what would you hope to accomplish?

Do you really think any school that received a reapplication from a candidate they previously accepted would be unaware of the particulars surrounding that candidate, and that the application would maybe be lost in some dark corner of their portal, awaiting a nudge from the dean, provoked by a communication from the applicant, to get the ball rolling?

TBH, the time to reach out would have been before applying, to suss out whether they would be receptive to receiving a reapplication from you. It honestly would have saved you a TON of time, money and anxiety, and would have given you a much better idea of what you were up against as you began this quest. Once you submit, I don't think anyone, anywhere, would talk to you while you had an application pending.

 

[Talldoctor96]

He has 3. Assuming standard interview acceptance rate (40%), there's about a 20% chance he won't get in (again, these are population based probabilities, and definitely not likely to apply well to individuals). However, since he got 3 by the end of August, he's likely to end up with 7-10 by the end of the cycle.

I'm not sure where he got 6% from. Perhaps he's looking at school specific data and his II schools have a high conversion rate.

This isn't how stats works. These aren't 3 independent events: if you are waitlisted/rejected at 1 you are more likely to be waitlisted/rejected at the others as well.

 

[UsernameChecksOut]

He has 3. Assuming standard interview acceptance rate (40%), there's about a 20% chance he won't get in (again, these are population based probabilities, and definitely not likely to apply well to individuals). However, since he got 3 by the end of August, he's likely to end up with 7-10 by the end of the cycle.

I'm not sure where he got 6% from. Perhaps he's looking at school specific data and his II schools have a high conversion rate.

I've seen this kind of scratchpad calculation referenced before. With full acknowledgment that none of us knows what will happen (of course) and that YMMV, is there a general loose estimate that any IIs before the end of August can be multiplied by 3-3.5 to predict how many IIs said applicant will receive by the time the cycle is said and done?

 

[KnightDoc]

I've seen this kind of scratchpad calculation referenced before. With full acknowledgment that none of us knows what will happen (of course) and that YMMV, is there a general loose estimate that any IIs before the end of August can be multiplied by 3-3.5 to predict how many IIs said applicant will receive by the time the cycle is said and done?

No such thing. Too many variables. How many apps were submitted? How early were they complete? How many IIs were already received? Is the applicant high stat? URM? Etc.?

For example, if you submitted 30 applications and already received 2 IIs, you could easily receive another 5-10. Or not. OTOH, if you submitted 20 apps and already received 10 IIs, you are probably pretty much done.

Bottom line -- IIs before Labor Day are GREAT, and are a decent sign that there are more to come, but there are no guarantees, and no rules of thumb to use to guestimate how many more, if any.

 

[voxveritatisetlucis]

I've seen this kind of scratchpad calculation referenced before. With full acknowledgment that none of us knows what will happen (of course) and that YMMV, is there a general loose estimate that any IIs before the end of August can be multiplied by 3-3.5 to predict how many IIs said applicant will receive by the time the cycle is said and done?

I would be thrilled if I could double my II count (though I would be happy at any of the three schools I’m interviewing at). Triple I would be ecstatic.

 

[UsernameChecksOut]

No such thing. Too many variables. How many apps were submitted? How early were they complete? How many IIs were already received? Is the applicant high stat? URM? Etc.?

For example, if you submitted 30 applications and already received 2 IIs, you could easily receive another 5-10. Or not. OTOH, if you submitted 20 apps and already received 10 IIs, you are probably pretty much done.

Bottom line -- IIs before Labor Day are GREAT, and are a decent sign that there are more to come, but there are no guarantees, and no rules of thumb to use to guestimate how many more, if any.

I would be thrilled if I could double my II count (though I would be happy at any of the three schools I’m interviewing at). Triple I would be ecstatic.

I probably should have written 2-2.5x but I know I saw someone on another forum predict that the OP would have 7-8 II (that person had about 3 early on in the process). I figured there was some rule of thumb that was true for a lot of their friends or classmates but that everyone knows one II could stop at that and that no early IIs can turn into 7-9 later.

Disclaimer: I definitely understand that nobody's experience predicts another's and I think most of us are well aware of that. I am merely trying to understand a ballpark figure that I've seen people in more than one forum loosely reference. Not one person was taking it as fact (I sense lectures coming and it's really not necessary).

 

[DoctorFate]

Yea, my friend last cycle received 4 interviews in august to early september, then no more. However, that was somewhat of a special circumstance, as his father had been faculty at 3 of those 4 schools, and the fourth was an in-state school that sent pretty much everyone who applied with a high enough mcat an II.

 

[voxveritatisetlucis]

Yea, my friend last cycle received 4 interviews in august to early september, then no more. However, that was somewhat of a special circumstance, as his father had been faculty at 3 of those 4 schools, and the fourth was an in-state school that sent pretty much everyone who applied with a high enough mcat an II.

How many did he apply to?

 

[DoctorFate]

How many did he apply to?

About 25. I think he left a few secondaries unfinished though, so maybe closer to 20.