Is your MCAT "fate" set?
Started by MCATLasagna
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Here is my 2 cents:
This forum only succeeded in stressing me out. Forget what other people are doing, you are not them. You need to focus on how you can improve, and internalizing the notion that it's not possible to do so based on others performances is highly counterproductive. Depending on your test date, I would probably take a break for a week and reset. Ultimately you want to enter that testing room with confidence and drive. Anything that undermines your confidence and determination will only lower your score.
I never look at those BS score conversion charts, AAMC practice FL conversion charts etc.
This forum only succeeded in stressing me out. Forget what other people are doing, you are not them. You need to focus on how you can improve, and internalizing the notion that it's not possible to do so based on others performances is highly counterproductive. Depending on your test date, I would probably take a break for a week and reset. Ultimately you want to enter that testing room with confidence and drive. Anything that undermines your confidence and determination will only lower your score.
I never look at those BS score conversion charts, AAMC practice FL conversion charts etc.
I was told to never go on SDN while studying for the MCAT, for a good reason. Agree with what sapientnarwhal said, a whole part of taking the exam is mental. Only you know your abilities as a student, be confident in them, take breaks as needed. But ultimately just keep grinding, stick to your study plan and then no matter the outcome, you'll know that you gave it your all rather than have regrets (sounds corny but its true)
When it comes to the MCAT or any other test for that matter your fate is not set (never ever.) Yes it may be true that people in general may not radically change their approach to studying between test dates. It is definitely not because their fate is "magically" set. Pick yourself up, dust yourself off and start all over--move ahead. You can truly do very well on this exam. Sure, it may take you more quality study hours than the next candidate, but by no means is your fate set. If so, you would not have people on this very forum improving ten or more points between test. [Even me, who is allergic to CARS can improve with the right approach and effort.] Best of luck going forward.
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Hi @MCATLasagna -
I agree 100% with the other posters in terms of encouraging you to hang in there, take a mental health break if needed, and focus on what you need to do for you rather than on prediction guidelines. The basic thing about predictors is that they are only useful if they are useful. That sounds like circular reasoning, but they're imperfect tools, and like any other tool, they are only suitable for what they can actually do. Predictors can be helpful for some students by providing some degree of context and reassurance, but they should be taken with a major grain of salt.
One reason for this is that predictors are simply not perfectly reliable. They are hugely subject to bias of various types, both in the relatively obvious sense that people are more likely to report good outcomes, but also for less obvious reasons like variation in the amount of studying that takes place between when someone takes a practice test versus the real thing. Arguably they provide some information that's better than nothing, but when you account for the error bars that are overtly present in the predictors as well as the less obvious sources of bias, some skepticism is warranted.
Even more importantly, though, predictors have some utility on the aggregate, but each individual test-taker is in an n=1 situation. (This is not unlike some issues faced in evidence-based medicine -- the outcome that matters to a patient on a gut level is his or her own health, not population-level averages). I've seen people put together regression analyses of practice test scores vs. reported MCAT scores, for example, and that's all well and good, but there are a fair number of outliers -- and your task is to try to make yourself into a positive outlier. That means focusing on what you can do, and not worrying so much about what the other hundreds of people who got a similar practice test score said happened to them.
Also worth noting: score plateaus are very common in MCAT studying, and people can and do break through those plateaus when certain knowledge and skills "click." Being at a plateau is frustrating, but if you keep chipping away on understanding the science content in more depth and honing your skills in applying it, you'll maximize your likelihood of a breakthrough. As a final note, mindset really does matter. I would personally rather go into Test Day with absolutely no knowledge of, say, organic chemistry mechanisms and a really good, confident, agile mindset than vice versa. I say this not because one can simply snap their fingers and be confident—I know it's not that easy, believe me—but just to validate the importance of focusing on the psychological aspects of preparation.
Hope this is helpful & hang in there!
I agree 100% with the other posters in terms of encouraging you to hang in there, take a mental health break if needed, and focus on what you need to do for you rather than on prediction guidelines. The basic thing about predictors is that they are only useful if they are useful. That sounds like circular reasoning, but they're imperfect tools, and like any other tool, they are only suitable for what they can actually do. Predictors can be helpful for some students by providing some degree of context and reassurance, but they should be taken with a major grain of salt.
One reason for this is that predictors are simply not perfectly reliable. They are hugely subject to bias of various types, both in the relatively obvious sense that people are more likely to report good outcomes, but also for less obvious reasons like variation in the amount of studying that takes place between when someone takes a practice test versus the real thing. Arguably they provide some information that's better than nothing, but when you account for the error bars that are overtly present in the predictors as well as the less obvious sources of bias, some skepticism is warranted.
Even more importantly, though, predictors have some utility on the aggregate, but each individual test-taker is in an n=1 situation. (This is not unlike some issues faced in evidence-based medicine -- the outcome that matters to a patient on a gut level is his or her own health, not population-level averages). I've seen people put together regression analyses of practice test scores vs. reported MCAT scores, for example, and that's all well and good, but there are a fair number of outliers -- and your task is to try to make yourself into a positive outlier. That means focusing on what you can do, and not worrying so much about what the other hundreds of people who got a similar practice test score said happened to them.
Also worth noting: score plateaus are very common in MCAT studying, and people can and do break through those plateaus when certain knowledge and skills "click." Being at a plateau is frustrating, but if you keep chipping away on understanding the science content in more depth and honing your skills in applying it, you'll maximize your likelihood of a breakthrough. As a final note, mindset really does matter. I would personally rather go into Test Day with absolutely no knowledge of, say, organic chemistry mechanisms and a really good, confident, agile mindset than vice versa. I say this not because one can simply snap their fingers and be confident—I know it's not that easy, believe me—but just to validate the importance of focusing on the psychological aspects of preparation.
Hope this is helpful & hang in there!
I don’t think focusing on outliers or nebulous “qualities that you bring to the table” like other posters are alluding to amount to constructive advise. Outliers are just that - outliers. The official AAMC practice exams are the most accurate predictors out there and I’d focus much more on those than other scales, 3rd party or otherwise. You could see a point swing but it’s broadly predictive to +/- 3-5 pts.
If you are not happy with your score, instead of hoping the scale is wrong or looking for potential sources of bias in the scale like NS above suggests, take a hard look at your options. Will this score hold you back from getting into med school or are you looking to be competitive for a top program? If you are far off from your target, consider pushing your exam back and reinventing your approach to the MCAT. If you can live with the score, then take it and be happy!
Hi @curvesetter - to clarify, the major point I'm making is that thinking about the most healthy and useful way for an individual to personally approach predictors can be distinct from a discussion of their population-level validity. Predictors are a tool to help guide preparation, and if they're functioning more as a mental block for someone, I do think it can be a better choice to step away from SDN/Reddit prediction threads.
Taking even the tighter margin of error you mention (+/-3), a score of 508 would yield a range of 505-511. That corresponds to a pretty big difference in outcomes from a practical point of view, so my takeaway in that situation would be to keep working. That would also be the takeaway if you just took the 508 at face value, so from this point of view, what's the value added by worrying about predictions? So if the question is "should I keep working hard and be confident that working smart and hard is a good investment of time?", then the answer is generally "yes", and the predictive power of practice test scores doesn't really play a huge role in that decision. (For that matter, even if your practice test scores are in the 515+ range or higher, my advice would still be to keep working and not to take it for granted). Of course, choosing whether to take or to postpone the test is a different question, and I absolutely do agree that practice test score data should inform that choice.
(Also, it can be true both that online AAMC-based prediction tools have sources of bias and that they may be the best predictors available -- understanding both the limitations and the advantages of these tools is the best way to use them productively, within a reasonable set of expectations. I'm not saying that if someone is scoring in the low 490s right before Test Day, they should take the test anyway and hope for a 510+ score because "you never know!" -- instead, the idea is that given the presence of error bars and limitations, the best strategy for any one individual is to push hard to perform at their absolute best within that general context, with the understanding that part of performing at one's absolute best is cultivating a good, energetic, positive frame of mind.)
Well said! Absolutely agree
I think your fate is hardly set in stone. It's a matter of timing though. There are lots and lots of great points above, but I'll throw in my 2 cents here.
The reason why the AAMC FLs are considered to have predictive value is because 1. They're just like the MCAT because it's AAMC, and 2. they're often saved until the last few weeks before the exam, when most of your content review is set and your knowledge base is mostly completed. When used in this way, they are best used to guide your last few weeks of study to the section that you can most easily gain a few points in, or point out glaring weaknesses that may warrant delaying your exam.
In those that have taken an FL early (say, FL 3 midway through dedicated content reveiw), I have seen considerable differences in the scores between that early FL and the late FL/MCAT.
