Kirby - Game Thread

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samac said:
I can’t throw JJJ out
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DrWilgy said:
I agree, but I don't think that JJJ should be included until we flip Moon. A town M enables the existence of a W JJJ.
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*Until* we flip me? How about *unless* we flip me? 😅

I mean, we’re two wolves down and I don’t think I did anything to help with either of those, so I don’t really feel like fighting my kill. Just depends on how much people want a town sweep, which my death would preclude.
 
Dinashadow said:
12. moonstermash - null to wolf leaning , I don't really have a reason to go either way, the mothy vote yesterday to make a tie pinged me, weird switching on JJJ read also pinged me, need to go back and read her posts
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As I mulled in the night phase, I thought this wasn't great for moonster. The structure of the post just seemed more flubbed than the other reads. orange no reason to go either way ||| red here are literally two reasons to go the wolf way

This isn't any sort of smoking gun, just something I've chewed on.
 
Zenge142 said:
Why is this?
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Dina claimed.
The claim was likely made to let Dina live for another day.
The most natural choice for the wagons to go is where Dina was voting and who we all had suspected for the majority of the day - JJJ.
If JJJ is wolf and flips there, it won't change that Dina, the final wolf, will at most live for one more day when we have to decide whether she or the counter claim is the wolf.

There is no contingency plan with that play if the wolves are JJJ/Dina.

You might think then that Dina's plan was to claim a pr to fish out a real town PR. However, wolves in this position will not do that. Because A) Wolves very rarely want to trade 1 wolf for 1 villager. And B) Wolves do not want more cleared goodies. The N2 kill would preferably be Zenge or Samac. But now they have to kill Mayo, someone who was LHF. That is not optimal for wolves.

Now when I am writing, I guess if we want to be spicy, it could be a way for wolf!Zenge or wolf!Samac to buy some time, and not be that weird that they are alive for "so long". But that is some level 3 play. (Say if Samac is the final wolf. The plan would be to kill PR, survive D3, kill Zenge or the next outed PR if they find it, survive D5, to then kill the other person of Zenge/PR. They would be at D6 then without looking weird. However wolves would have to play for a F3, which is D7 and Samac being alive in a F3 will be weird regardless.)
(what if i wrote down the whole plan now).

Anyway. Occam's razors say that Dina fake claimed to survive for one more day. The yeet that would have happened if Mayo had not CC'd would be JJJ. So she destroys wolves' chances to win by that claim if it is JJJ/Dina. I do not think she and JJJ added me being a conspiracy hack to the equation to ensure JJJ's survival either.
 
Boquise dropping in with the mechanics nuke like a champ. That post is one to settle into your pockets for the actual games, champs participants.
 
Boquise said:
The claim was likely made to let Dina live for another day.
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I disagree. I think it was to force Mayo to out himself.
Boquise said:
The most natural choice for the wagons to go is where Dina was voting and who we all had suspected for the majority of the day - JJJ.
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that’s kind of a big “IF”
Boquise said:
You might think then that Dina's plan was to claim a pr to fish out a real town PR. However, wolves in this position will not do that. Because A) Wolves very rarely want to trade 1 wolf for 1 villager. And B) Wolves do not want more cleared goodies. The N2 kill would preferably be Zenge or Samac. But now they have to kill Mayo, someone who was LHF. That is not optimal for wolves.
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eeeeeeeehhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

I’d do that in Dina’s shoes. Dina is going down regardless so it’s not really a trade.

Mayo getting cleared for 5 minutes doesn’t change the gamestate and getting the doctor cleared out is better overall. You don’t want to risk a NK not going through. And then you’re off this constant carousel of “do we kill Samac or zenge? Which one will doctor protect? Or do they know we will predict that and protect the other one so we should kill the other one??? 😵‍💫”

I think Dina’s play to force out the Doctor was the GTO play in that situation.
 
JaggedJimmyJay said:
Boquise dropping in with the mechanics nuke like a champ. That post is one to settle into your pockets for the actual games, champs participants.
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This feels pockety AF JjJ.

I got my eye on you.
 
moonstermash said:
*Until* we flip me? How about *unless* we flip me? 😅

I mean, we’re two wolves down and I don’t think I did anything to help with either of those, so I don’t really feel like fighting my kill. Just depends on how much people want a town sweep, which my death would preclude.
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I've never been one to really worry about a sweep. A win is a win and a loss is a loss.

Not following a firm methodology in regards to PoE trimming, which does include you, is what can cause the loss.
 
Boquise is completely correct. This will mean far less coming from me, but he is correct.

If Dina's claim works, I am dead. If I am her teammate, I flip mafia and she spends the rest of the game alone with a counter-claim in play. That makes no sense. It'd throw the game.
 
Boquise said:
D1 I said that Dina/Pippy could be w/w for a post. If Pippy ends up being a wolf, I am basically God
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Man, I vibe with this like you can't imagine.

However, I still don't think Pippy/Dubz was a valid team pairing lol
 
Zenge142 said:
I don’t agree with that gambit.

I think if anyone the waffle would have landed on Mayo (had he not been Dr.)
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Think about it from the perspective of the mafia, not from the perspective of Zenge. I don't think any team tries that.
 
DrWilgy said:
Man, I vibe with this like you can't imagine.

However, I still don't think Pippy/Dubz was a valid team pairing lol
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I know she got off the vote later on, but I have a hard time imagining Wolf!Dubz voting for Her packmate Pippy at all during this cycle
 
Zenge142 said:
This feels pockety AF JjJ.

I got my eye on you.
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I absolutely do not care. I realize these kinds of open setup claiming dynamics might be new here, but Boquise made an amazing post, and I want it said that he made an amazing post.
 
Zenge142 said:
I know she got off the vote later on, but I have a hard time imagining Wolf!Dubz voting for Her packmate Pippy at all during this cycle
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I agree. The 1/3 on Pippy early reflects that it was more opportunistic than anything else. Wolves don't take the opportunistic bus.
 
Zenge142 said:
I disagree. I think it was to force Mayo to out himself.

that’s kind of a big “IF”

eeeeeeeehhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

I’d do that in Dina’s shoes. Dina is going down regardless so it’s not really a trade.

Mayo getting cleared for 5 minutes doesn’t change the gamestate and getting the doctor cleared out is better overall. You don’t want to risk a NK not going through. And then you’re off this constant carousel of “do we kill Samac or zenge? Which one will doctor protect? Or do they know we will predict that and protect the other one so we should kill the other one??? 😵‍💫”

I think Dina’s play to force out the Doctor was the GTO play in that situation.
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No lmao it isnt a big if. JJJ was everyone's favourite wagon for 95% of the day. Everyone said that JJJ will need to die. There is already a movement there. Even IF we as town, do not end up at JJJ wolves are completely unable to predict that. Which means it is an extreme risk. Tell me, who else would be yeeted? We had hardly talked about any other player than JJJ. And from scum's point of view, they won't gamble the third wolf's life even if the chances are 50-50. If Dina and JJJ are wolves together, Dina would have absolutely had to vote somewhere else beforehand and not just join in on JJJ. Because if her claim was to be believed, her vote placement would potentially inspire people to follow.

It is a trade because now they are forced to kill outside you and Samac. And no that isn't better. If you and Samac are both town, scum absolutely want you two dead. They do not want to have you around longer because you are killing it and that is de-motivating. If they wanna avoid the doctor heal, they could if so kill me or Wilgy. But now they got to kill someone who was not supposed to be in the cards. Which means all four of you, me, Samac and Wilgy are alive. If all four of us are town, that's extremely suboptimal.
 
Zenge142 said:
This feels pockety AF JjJ.

I got my eye on you.
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JJJ as wolf should know by now that I have been eyeing him for pocketing. Me saying I can clear him and he walks in and do what I have said is something I scum read him for, sounds like something he would not want to do as wolf
 
JaggedJimmyJay said:
Think about it from the perspective of the mafia, not from the perspective of Zenge. I don't think any team tries that.
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Noted…

I think you’re looking at it all wrong.

I am Dina. I’m going down. We know the set up. We know that there’s a doctor and we need 5+ misyeets still. (BRUTAL) we need to kill Samac and Zenge, but it’s risky because we can’t predict who the doctor will protect.

If I’m Dina, about to Die, I can claim doctor. If the real doctor counter claims, our biggest threat is removed from the equation.

If doctor isn’t around to counter claim then village waffles onto someone else

Possibly a packmate, sure, but then possibly not, and we were going to lose a wolf anyway regardless.

I think forcing out the doctor is preferred there
 
Zenge142 said:
Noted…

I think you’re looking at it all wrong.

I am Dina. I’m going down. We know the set up. We know that there’s a doctor and we need 5+ misyeets still. (BRUTAL) we need to kill Samac and Zenge, but it’s risky because we can’t predict who the doctor will protect.

If I’m Dina, about to Die, I can claim doctor. If the real doctor counter claims, our biggest threat is removed from the equation.

If doctor isn’t around to counter claim then village waffles onto someone else

Possibly a packmate, sure, but then possibly not, and we were going to lose a wolf anyway regardless.

I think forcing out the doctor is preferred there
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I am Dina
I vote my wolf mate, the final wolf, JJJ, who everyone else is voting and has said is wolf and has to die
I get pressured
I still vote JJJ
I decide to fake claim

Where do the votes land after the dust is settled and I am believed?
HIGH risk on it landing on JJJ.
I cant stop that because I have been voting JJJ and telling people not to will be bad.
Adios JJJ.

I am Dina
I have to survive for F3
Today I have to do a claim war.

Like I see your point. Good to get rid of the doctor. But the risk of getting your teammate killed is too high. Had there been four wolves, then JJJ would still be in the equation.

Occam's razors say that JJJ is town.
 
Zenge142 said:
Possibly a packmate, sure, but then possibly not, and we were going to lose a wolf anyway regardless.

I think forcing out the doctor is preferred there
Click to expand...
I think your mistake is thinking of the game in terms of the 5-minute EOD window instead of the rest of the game window.

"Possibly a packmate, sure" -- this means the game is over. Full stop. The end. Even if the counterclaim doesn't happen until the next day phase, it will still happen. Game over.

"then possibly not" -- THAT is the gigantic "if", and it's an "if" that the wolves would be banking on for... what? Is outing the doctor a good enough move to justify the massive risk inherent to LOSING THE GAME IMMEDIATELY if it doesn't go your way? And that possibility would have been imminent.

I don't want to spend more time on this, but I think you might have a little confirmation bias happening. Just think it over.
 
I understand that there is an inherent bias to scum read JJJ because it is in the narrative and script that JJJ has to die. We are RPing Champs games after all. But he is cleared now tbh. We dont have to complicate the game. Every play people do is usually level 1 anyway
 
NateTheLesser said:
The tally was Dina 5 / JJJ 4 / mayo 2 / Wilgy 1 when Dina claimed. Really don't think it waffles to mayo in that situation.
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I don’t think the Dina voters would have gone for J though. I know I wouldn’t have. I don’t think @samac would have. So already that makes it 4/4
 
I’m not necessarily scum reading JJJ here.

I just think auto clearing him off Dina’s flip isn’t an accurate interpretation of the events from last night
 
wolves stereotypically wanna play for keeps
this was playing for lose
's all

I also dont think that JJJ as a wolf would like, be okay with this strategy. The only reason this conversation is happening is because I created it. People entered today with JJJ sus intact. It could possibly be a re-visit of yesterday or maybe JJJ vs Moon. They would have to plan that I would go with this analysis and... I dont see that. It is very rare that wolves level that much when it means auto lose if their gamble doesnt pay off.
 
DrWilgy said:
I've never been one to really worry about a sweep. A win is a win and a loss is a loss.

Not following a firm methodology in regards to PoE trimming, which does include you, is what can cause the loss.
Click to expand...
Yeah, fair. I will try to stop stressing so much about being sussed and try to just do my best, whatever that is. And if I'm killed, it is what it is, and hopefully we win the game.
 
Analyze

Town Odd Night Tracker
Town Even Night Vanilla Cop
Town 2x Doctor
9 Vanilla Townies

Mafia 2x Watcher?
Mafia Blocker?
Mafia Goon?

Track

Town Odd Night Tracker
Town 2x Doctor
10 Vanilla Townies

Mafia 1x Tracker?
2 Mafia Goons?

These are the possible setups. FWIW, I don't think of doctor as being a particularly strong PR, in any setup (I know, I've been one... made 0 saves and lost), and in these setups, trading scum for a doctor doesn't seem particularly worth it to me? Like, in Track, you've turned the tracker into a cop, and in Analzye, there are still two other, stronger PRs. Granted I don't know the meta here, and maybe I have an unconventional view anyway, but honestly if I was Dina I would have gone down quietly. Obviously that's not what happened, and my guess is the wolves were hoping for no counterclaim, but oof. Tough row for the last wolf to hoe. You have my sympathies - I've been the last wolf backed into a corner, and it sucks.
 
moonstermash said:
These are the possible setups. FWIW, I don't think of doctor as being a particularly strong PR, in any setup (I know, I've been one... made 0 saves and lost), and in these setups, trading scum for a doctor doesn't seem particularly worth it to me?
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I guess generally I see this point.

But I think since Samac and I are the obvious kills, wolves have to play this infuriating game of ring around the Rosie trying to decide which to kill vs which they think will be protected.

So outting the Dr fixes that.
 
But this discussion I think is getting very bogged down in mechanics theory and not really advancing the thread in towards a solve.

So maybe it’s better left alone for now
 
Zenge142 said:
But this discussion I think is getting very bogged down in mechanics theory and not really advancing the thread in towards a solve.

So maybe it’s better left alone for now
Click to expand...
Agreed. I mostly just wanted to lay out the setups we could be in for myself.
 
Boquise said:
Dina claimed.
The claim was likely made to let Dina live for another day.
The most natural choice for the wagons to go is where Dina was voting and who we all had suspected for the majority of the day - JJJ.
If JJJ is wolf and flips there, it won't change that Dina, the final wolf, will at most live for one more day when we have to decide whether she or the counter claim is the wolf.

There is no contingency plan with that play if the wolves are JJJ/Dina.

You might think then that Dina's plan was to claim a pr to fish out a real town PR. However, wolves in this position will not do that. Because A) Wolves very rarely want to trade 1 wolf for 1 villager. And B) Wolves do not want more cleared goodies. The N2 kill would preferably be Zenge or Samac. But now they have to kill Mayo, someone who was LHF. That is not optimal for wolves.

Now when I am writing, I guess if we want to be spicy, it could be a way for wolf!Zenge or wolf!Samac to buy some time, and not be that weird that they are alive for "so long". But that is some level 3 play. (Say if Samac is the final wolf. The plan would be to kill PR, survive D3, kill Zenge or the next outed PR if they find it, survive D5, to then kill the other person of Zenge/PR. They would be at D6 then without looking weird. However wolves would have to play for a F3, which is D7 and Samac being alive in a F3 will be weird regardless.)
(what if i wrote down the whole plan now).

Anyway. Occam's razors say that Dina fake claimed to survive for one more day. The yeet that would have happened if Mayo had not CC'd would be JJJ. So she destroys wolves' chances to win by that claim if it is JJJ/Dina. I do not think she and JJJ added me being a conspiracy hack to the equation to ensure JJJ's survival either.
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I mean it could it not just be absolute **** luck for the wolves that mayo was the doctor and they just wanted the doctor out?
 
Okay this post got longer than I intended it to be. But I am a nerd and I love talking about the game like this during the game is being played. Sorry.

Zenge142 said:
I guess generally I see this point.

But I think since Samac and I are the obvious kills, wolves have to play this infuriating game of ring around the Rosie trying to decide which to kill vs which they think will be protected.

So outting the Dr fixes that.
Click to expand...

Zenge142 said:
But this discussion I think is getting very bogged down in mechanics theory and not really advancing the thread in towards a solve.

So maybe it’s better left alone for now
Click to expand...
point is that wolves would be just as happy to off me or wilgy, two other people who have been on the correct wagons and also started the Dina wagon. They dont need more clears.

Anyway, I agree that we are not going anywhere. But I want to say one final thing, just to hopefully ease your mind Zenge.
Lets say JJJ is the final wolf. His life is now completely tied to my whims. I am his golden ticked to survive for a bit longer because I will now be his champion - and I have garnered enough influence to make people listen to me. If I sway, he is doomed. But he can also not kill me, because then his first defender is dead and suspicion will arise once more (because lets face it, dead townies' reads are forgotten after one phase). So Jay has to keep me around to defend him against you.

The problem for Jay is that he cannot keep me until F3. Not because of any mech or wifom or whatever, no this is a personal thing. Jay knows my champs history. Jay knows that I am writing on a F3 article from town perspective, and knows that I am absolutely thorough and won't defend him at all. So he has to off me before F3 - which opens him up for yeets.

So, like, my play here is something I wouldn't have dared to do when I was newer, because if JJJ is actually scum then I will look like a complete fool and could potentially have tossed the whole game for town. So I ignored to do plays like this even though in my head my vision is correct. But here is the beauty and my point. I have Jay completely cornered now. I have established a dynamic and since I am town, the dynamic is town controlled. A more, eh, less formal way to say it is that I have Jay by his balls now.

So I am not at all worried about town clearing him tbh. And Jay as a player knows about this dynamic already. He also knows I am fixated at not being pocketed by him. He chose anyway to write a pockety post. After I had complained about that four times already.


....I find it super fun and nerdy and stuff to look at the players as game pieces. We town players all have a pov that the wolves have to navigate. I give +1 to JJJ's defence. You give a -1. That creates waves in wolves' decision-making. It is super fun to think about!!! AND ALSO WHY NKA SHOULD NOT BE SHUNNED


thank you for listening to my tedtalk, like and subscribe, support me on patreon, do my dishes
pls
 
Zenge142 said:
I disagree. I think it was to force Mayo to out himself.

that’s kind of a big “IF”

eeeeeeeehhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

I’d do that in Dina’s shoes. Dina is going down regardless so it’s not really a trade.

Mayo getting cleared for 5 minutes doesn’t change the gamestate and getting the doctor cleared out is better overall. You don’t want to risk a NK not going through. And then you’re off this constant carousel of “do we kill Samac or zenge? Which one will doctor protect? Or do they know we will predict that and protect the other one so we should kill the other one??? 😵‍💫”

I think Dina’s play to force out the Doctor was the GTO play in that situation.
Click to expand...
Agreed.
 
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