I agree- it really depends.
First it is good to focus on the fact that most programs have an October 1 deadline or later. A handful fall in September (under 10 by my count, but some programs have not said what their deadline is or whether they even have one). On top of that, SFMatch says it takes 2-3 weeks for material to be sent out once reaching them, but for me it was 6 days, and that seems to have been consistent with what other people have said. I guess it is possible that that might take a little longer now if more applications are reaching SFMatch now (I have no idea), but even so. You still have plenty of time to reach most programs' deadlines.
If I knew of a program I really wanted to go to I'd apply to it even if I thought it might reach past "deadline". To me the worst they can say is "no", which is essentially what you get if you don't apply at all. And not that I'm a program director, but if I had a great applicant wanting to come to my program I'm not sure an arbitrary date would matter to me, especially since I'd know that a lot of it is out of the applicant's hands and depends on how fast SFMatch is.
Good luck!