Pre-Dent: Loan Question

[Big Time Hoosier]

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Will be very interesting to see how this all plays out.

Spoiler alert:

Big Hoss

 

[SigmaFS]

Spoiler alert:
View attachment 409548

Big Hoss

We'll get the first indication in this cycle if schools aren't able to fill the seats. NYU, USC, UPenn, Midwestern schools to follow.

 

[Big Time Hoosier]

We'll get the first indication in this cycle if schools aren't able to fill the seats. NYU, USC, UPenn, Midwestern schools to follow.

Big Hoss

 

[macsak]

We'll get the first indication in this cycle if schools aren't able to fill the seats. NYU, USC, UPenn, Midwestern schools to follow.

schools will always be able to fill their seats
it's about the quality of the matriculating class, and subsequently about the quality of the dentists they produce...

 

[SigmaFS]

schools will always be able to fill their seats

We shall see in about 11 months.

 

[JacquesVallee]

schools will always be able to fill their seats

In the short term, probably as long as private lenders pull through. 5-10 years from now, no way.

 

[mjzccle19701]

Will you all be upset if students manage to overcome these difficulties and be successful? There is a lot of negativity and even excitement for the door to be shut on students who don’t have the means to pay out of pocket. When someone posts their success it’s met with “you are a unicorn” and “you overtreat.” Why not congratulate them and ask them how they did it? Why is it that the little amount of positivity is quickly smothered? There aren’t many students who would drive 3 hours a day to school, graduate, live at home, and work 6 days a week for 3 years. So yeah, Pablo isn’t the typical dental student/dentist. People reading these forums should look at that example and decide if they are willing to put in that amount of effort and have the familial support. Rather than writing off their futures without a second thought. FWIW I think the change to student loans is a good thing and will hopefully close predatory schools. But there isn’t much sympathy or hope for students. Even if there is, it’s buried underneath the negativity.

 

[JacquesVallee]

Will you all be upset if students manage to overcome these difficulties and be successful?

No. What kind of question is this?

There is a lot of negativity and even excitement for the door to be shut on students who don’t have the means to pay out of pocket. When someone posts their success it’s met with “you are a unicorn” and “you overtreat.”

The excitement is a mixture of 1) students no longer getting to be able to commit financial suicide 2) the greedy dental schools who unnecessarily increased costs of dental school without caring about their students finally reaping what the sew. I'm guessing you're a pre-dent or dental student. Had you practiced dentistry, you'd understand that 99.9% of new grads who would produce enough to take home 400k would have very subpar clinical work. Speed in dentistry takes years to obtain. I'm nowhere near taking home 400k, and probably never will unless I become an owner.

Why not congratulate them and ask them how they did it?

It'd be like asking Kobe Bryant or Michael Jordan how they did it. It's good to strive to be one of the greats, but in reality very very few of us will be then. For the record, TanMan has threads where people have asked him about how he does it which are very informative.

So yeah, Pablo isn’t the typical dental student/dentist.

Not typical is a vast understatement. What he's doing is not realistic. I swear, he's posted 10+ time his income which sadly gives the false impression that this is practical. It isn't. Expect 120-140k coming out.

 

[mjzccle19701]

No. What kind of question is this?

I’m being obtuse. I think my point was to say that there are some overly negative people who don’t show any sympathy or hope to students today.

Tanman, cold front, Charles, Pablo, (insert any successful dentist on here) make their money from ventures outside of dentistry. You can optimize your office and pump out same day crowns all day every day but the real money comes from outside of dentistry.

I am not naive enough to think that someone who takes 3 hours to do a 2 surface filling will be making 400k. Pablo said it himself that the first half year was rough. I also don’t think a random switch flipped and he somehow became the most efficient dentist ever. By working 6 days a week twice a month, he essential worked 216 more days or a year more than someone who works 4 days a week over 3 years. He sped up the time it takes to get better at dentistry. How long do you think it takes to get speed in dentistry? I’ve heard it takes 1-2 years to get your feet under you, and then another 5 to get really good at it. 10,000 reps. There will be some variability but those are general numbers. I don’t think many dentists follow the same drawn out protocols that they are taught in dental school. They also take CE to get more proficient at other procedures.

Again, you are discrediting someone who found success. It reeks of jealousy. I don’t think Pablo ever said he was slamming all on x’s or FMRs. You throw around numbers all the time too. The difference between 120k and 400k is huge. There are definitely a very small number of associates and owners who hit that number. But there are also plenty of dentists who don’t do as well, but still do well.

The reason pre dents and dental students never come on here is because it’s so negative. There can be positive and negative things about dentistry. Why only focus on the negatives? I’m not saying to ignore the negatives, but a little balance would be nice.

 

[Big Time Hoosier]

Will you all be upset if students manage to overcome these difficulties and be successful?

There is a lot of negativity and even excitement for the door to be shut on students who don’t have the means to pay out of pocket.

We’re excited by the prospect that the education bubble appears to be about to burst. The current state of education should never have been allowed to happen in the first place. We’re cheering on a return to normalcy. It’s the return of sanity that will be a blessing to prospective dentists. I’d like this to be a profession I’d encourage my kids to pursue, but as things stand that’s a hard pass.

You can optimize your office and pump out same day crowns all day every day but the real money comes from outside of dentistry.

And, new dentists today aren’t going to have the disposable income to throw at these ventures. All of their income will go to servicing their student loans. They will remain debt donkeys throughout their career.

The reason pre dents and dental students never come on here is because it’s so negative.

So, what does that tell you about the trajectory of the profession? Predents are so hyper focused on getting in, they never stop to think if they should even apply. I mean, it’s their passion after all. As soon as you hit the workforce, you’ll realize most of what we said is true.

Big Hoss

 

[mjzccle19701]

We’re excited by the prospect that the education bubble appears to be about to burst.

I think it’s a good thing across the board. There are predatory schools in every profession and people won’t be able to spend 200k on a basket weaving degree. People going into debt for more than 2x their future annual income aren’t making smart decisions. But to say students shouldn’t become a dentist unless loans are under 200k is pretty wild.

So, what does that tell you about the trajectory of the profession? Predents are so hyper focused on getting in, they never stop to think if they should even apply. I mean, it’s their passion after all. As soon as you hit the workforce, you’ll realize most of what we said is true.

I don’t doubt that a lot of what y’all say is true. My expectations are so low for the real world. But I truly wonder if y’all think there is anything redeemable about dentistry. I’ve asked about it before and get hit with “of course there is that’s a dumb statement.” But y’all never choose to talk about those things.

 

[JacquesVallee]

I’m being obtuse. I think my point was to say that there are some overly negative people who don’t show any sympathy or hope to students today.

There are so many unknowns with what the consequences of this bill will be, so I am super empathetic to pre meds and pre dents who are concerned.

I can't imagine working so hard to get into dental school and then having the rug pulled from me.

I have consistently held the view that the schools, not the students, deserve the bulk of the blame. I have nothing for sympathy for pre dents. I mean, I was one. I so easily could've been taken advantage of! I also have maintained the IBR has allowed students to survive with the high debt loads, but now with that gone, these students won't have ANY fall back on their private loans. They will be completely on the hook for their loans. This is urgent. It's the massive elephant in the room. The positives of dentistry, such as getting to help people, get completely eclipsed by this. Of course, addressing this massive elephant will be perceived as negative, but its THE major issue effecting new grads, more so than expansion of DSOs.

I am not naive enough to think that someone who takes 3 hours to do a 2 surface filling will be making 400k. Pablo said it himself that the first half year was rough. I also don’t think a random switch flipped and he somehow became the most efficient dentist ever. By working 6 days a week twice a month, he essential worked 216 more days or a year more than someone who works 4 days a week over 3 years. He sped up the time it takes to get better at dentistry. How long do you think it takes to get speed in dentistry? I’ve heard it takes 1-2 years to get your feet under you, and then another 5 to get really good at it. 10,000 reps. There will be some variability but those are general numbers. I don’t think many dentists follow the same drawn out protocols that they are taught in dental school. They also take CE to get more proficient at other procedures.

Again, you haven't practiced dentistry (I assume). So you assume you're going to ball out and do all the hard things. I hope you do!! However, while those are all great things to do if you have high debt loads, it still doesn't change the calculus on the debt to income ratio on graduating dental students who now won't be able to use IBR on average. I am in nothing but support of successful dentists giving tips to new grads. But Pablo, so radically does not represent recent grads it's ridiculous. I am sure pre dents will see the multiple posts of him flexing his income, but they need to know that is not realistic for them without ownership. For every Pablo, there are at least 100 new grads making 120-150k.

Again, you are discrediting someone who found success. It reeks of jealousy. I don’t think Pablo ever said he was slamming all on x’s or FMRs. You throw around numbers all the time too. The difference between 120k and 400k is huge. There are definitely a very small number of associates and owners who hit that number. But there are also plenty of dentists who don’t do as well, but still do well.

I've compared Pablo to MJ and Lebron. Dude is clearly a beast. What are you talking about? Moreover, I paid off my loans and am in a fantastic financial position. I moved to the middle of nowhere to be a dentist and have done very well for myself. To impugn jealousy on me is immature.

I don’t doubt that a lot of what y’all say is true. My expectations are so low for the real world. But I truly wonder if y’all think there is anything redeemable about dentistry. I’ve asked about it before and get hit with “of course there is that’s a dumb statement.” But y’all never choose to talk about those things.

Dude, the BBB has just completely changed the game on dentistry. Pre dents taking 400k+ in loans with private interest rates of 13% make the situation so dire that of course that is what is talked about. Why go after mosquitos when there is a bear in the room?

 

[mjzccle19701]

Like I've been saying, those two quotes from you are buried under piles of negativity. Lol you edited your post to put some weak positive notions about dentistry.

Again, you haven't practiced dentistry (I assume). So you assume you're going to ball out and do all the hard things.

Based on y'alls posts, I'm assuming my life will suck.

I've compared Pablo to MJ and Lebron. Dude is clearly a beast.

You said you are skeptical of his work and that he shouldn't be doing all on x or molar endo... assuming he does those things. It'd be more like comparing him to Lance Armstrong.

Dude, the BBB has just completely changed the game on dentistry. Pre dents taking 400k+ in loans with private interest rates of 13% make the situation so dire that of course that is what is talked about. Why go after mosquitos when there is a bear in the room?

I don't disagree with this. It was ridiculous even before the BBB. 400k in private loans is a death sentence. I'm not advocating for people to take that much out. I just think it's funny y'all will rarely say anything positive about dentistry when you have benefitted from it and do very well. Pretty sure tanman has talked about how ridiculous tuition is now, but he still posts about his success. I like to see the full picture with the bear and the mosquitos in the room instead of going about the world with blinders on.

 

[Big Time Hoosier]

Based on y'alls posts, I'm assuming my life will suck.

Statistically speaking, it will. If it doesn’t, awesome! Everyone likes to think they’ll be the outlier, when in reality the numbers say they’ll be average. For the average dentist, this career is a far cry from what it used to be.

Big Hoss

 

[mjzccle19701]

Statistically speaking, it will. If it doesn’t, awesome! Everyone likes to think they’ll be the outlier, when in reality the numbers say they’ll be average. For the average dentist, this career is a far cry from what it used to be.

Big Hoss

Thanks for the vote of confidence. Way to sum up my whole life. You don't know my goals or values.

 

[Big Time Hoosier]

Thanks for the vote of confidence. Way to sum up my whole life. You don't know my goals or values.

It’s nothing personal, it’s just math. And math doesn’t care about your feelings.

Big Hoss

 

[Pablo Sanchez]

I don’t think this has to be as divisive as it is. Dentistry itself is a great career with redeeming qualities. I think we can all agree that there are good aspects to the career like our ability to help people, our ability to have a respected career, our ability to have a flexibility in work environments (large office, hospital dentistry, small private office, associate, owner), our ability to have a stable job without fear of layoffs, our ability to have a job that doesn’t require us to sit at a desk all day, our ability to have a job where it actually makes a difference how hard you work (you can have a chill life and work a couple of days, or you can work very hard and slave away and see the rewards associated with that). I would think that we can all agree about that?

And I think that we can all agree that the cost of dental school is ridiculous, and in many cases, not worth it, and that something needs to be done.

And I think most of us can agree that having fewer dental schools is a good thing from the standpoint of preventing over-saturation.

Where people have a difference in opinion is in how much money is it worth spending on the education for the juice to be worth the squeeze. That number is going to be different for everyone. There’s no way I can answer that question for anyone on here, and there’s no way anyone on here can answer that for me.

I think warning pre-dents about the cost is good because without notifying them how crazy it can be, many of them are bound to make bad decisions and regret their choice. But the fact of the matter is some people will be very entrepreneurial and successful as a dentist and will make a ton of money from this career. Others will have help paying from their parents or the military, etc. Some people don’t have a problem being in more debt and living their whole life with debt. Other people, like me, hate the idea of living with debt like that. It’s going to be different for everyone and that’s not a decision any of us can make for anyone else, and we have to learn to respect that.

Now that being said, don’t be an idiot.

 

[Big Time Hoosier]

I think warning pre-dents about the cost is good because without notifying them how crazy it can be, many of them are bound to make bad decisions and regret their choice.

The really sad part is it’s not just educational debt that will put a squeeze on them. Buying a home was infinitely more easy when the median house price to median income was 2-3, not the 5-6 of today.

They also missed the insane run up in the stock market. They’ll arrive just in time to catch a falling knife.

Good thing the ADA is fighting so hard for the profession…

Big Hoss

 

[mjzccle19701]

The really sad part is it’s not just educational debt that will put a squeeze on them. Buying a home was infinitely more easy when the median house price to median income was 2-3, not the 5-6 of today.

They also missed the insane run up in the stock market. They’ll arrive just in time to catch a falling knife.

Good thing the ADA is fighting so hard for the profession…

Big Hoss

ADA is a sham. The fed cut rates so not so gloomy after all. Can't wait for the dollar to collapse. Should've invested my dental school tuition in bitcoin or gold.

 

[Pablo Sanchez]

They also missed the insane run up in the stock market. They’ll arrive just in time to catch a falling knife.

They’ll arrive just in time to buy everything on sale before it goes back up

 

[D1Bound]

Closer to 0.01%-0.1% for recent grads. Any recent grad producing enough to take home 400k I am questioning the quality of their work. New grads should be methodically increasing their skillset and slowly take on more challenging cases. They shouldn't be cranking out molar endos and All-on-X.

let’s say the quiet part out loud. If they aren’t working 5 days and a Saturday here and there, they’re 100% mowing everything down as a crown. They’re not referring work out what they really should.

 

[JacquesVallee]

let’s say the quiet part out loud. If they aren’t working 5 days and a Saturday here and there, they’re 100% mowing everything down as a crown. They’re not referring work out what they really should.

Yeah, the debt load negatively impacts patient care because whether conscious or not, new grads will try to keep everything in house, even cases they aren't prepared to adequately tackle. Your average new grad should not be tackling molar endo, implants, impacted thirds etc. It took me a couple years to really hone my surgical skills, for instance, and even then I still refer out liberally. We shouldn't be rushing this, but sadly, the debt load is forcing new grads to bite off more than they can chew.

 

[SigmaFS]

The fed cut rates so not so gloomy after all. Can't wait for the dollar to collapse.

The feds did cut rates, but as with the last few rate cuts, the 10 & 30-years bond rates have moved up. As for the dollar collapse, that would be devastating to the economy. I don't think you realize what you're asking? 

 

[Big Time Hoosier]

As for the dollar collapse, that would be devastating to the economy.

The entire country is going to look like Mogadishu circa 1993. Can’t wait! I’m just going to sit on my front porch and watch everything burn.



Big Hoss

 

[SigmaFS]

Mogadishu circa 1993

That is one frightening thought!!! You better be sittin' on the porch with a couple of friends, maybe Smith & Wesson (and I am not a gun person).

 

[Mr.Smile12]

Boilerplate slides available on the ADEA website for general use, but slides for entering class 2030 are not available (yet). Again, we're awaiting some rules coming from DoEd. ADEA COSRF (Council of Students, Residents, and Fellows) cohosted the webinar. I'm waiting for a recording to be publicly available.