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I believe he spoke to someone in admissions at UIC, and they looked over his application and couldn't point out any weakness in his application. They ended up just saying something along the lines of this process being a crapshoot.
I don't think that was the case here - the student was a non-trad, had a relatively balanced 30 on the MCAT, and a solid gpa. Certainly nothing out of the ballpark that would make UIC think that he wouldn't be interested in attending his state school.
While I agree that your theory can be true in some cases for some schools (i.e., rejecting high stats applicants they think wouldn't ever attend), I rarely think it's true for state/public schools. They realize that their tuition is the cheapest, and tend to accept instate applicants with much higher stats regardless. I remember talking to a student at UIC who was accepted to Pritzker, NU, Loyola, Rush and UIC, and chose UIC for the full ride (he had a 35 MCAT and other stellar qualities).
whoa, I wasn't aware that UIC gave out full rides. That's awesome.