It's all computerized. Don't take it in alphabetical order, take it in random order with 3 people, 5 different possible programs, all 3 interviewed at all 5, 1 match spot for each program possible:
Person A - 1, 2, 3
Person B - 3, 1, 2, 5
Person C - 3, 5, 4, 2, 1
Place 1 - B, A, C
Place 2 - A, B, C
Place 3 - C, B, A
Place 4 - C, A, B
Place 5 - A, C, B
So let's start the way they showed it:
Person A goes first, Person A tentatively placed in Place 1. Now Person B goes. Person B puts 3 first so Person B tentatively ends up at 3. Now Person C. But Person C put 3 first as well AND were ranked higher at Place 3, so now Person C replaced Person B at Place 3. Now go to Person B again and look at Place 1. Place 1 has Person A in place BUT they ranked Person B higher so Person B will replace Person A at Place 1. Person A now falls to his second choice (Place 2). Now everybody has been ranked at places where they mutually work.
If you start with Person B you can see it works the same way. (Person B - Place 3 tentatively, Person A - Place 1 tentatively, Person C - Place 3 but Place 3 ranked Person C higher so Person B falls out. Person B falls to his second choice (Place 1) so Person B replaces Person A at Place 1 and Person A falls to his second choice (Place 2).)
Basically you can take it as random assignments of variables. you have a1, a2, etc. applicants applying to p1, p2, etc. programs with s1, s2, etc. corresponding spots. you can show that no matter what an you start with, you will get the same final result.
Now, the program doesn't *confirm* that they want you. They have ALREADY submitted match lists. So what happens is everybody's preferences are already in a computer system. The programs have no clue of who wants them first and the applicants have no idea of what programs want them first. Just because you match into a program doesn't mean they "ranked you to match" if you assume that to mean in the top 30 or 40 or however many spots they have. Also, just because you match into a program doesn't mean you ranked them first.
That said, just rank in the order you want to go, not with the expectation that you'll be ranked higher in one place and may "lose that spot."
It's scary because your life is in the hands of a computer, and there are "stories" but they are just that, stories. You don't know what's true and what's not out there. The BEST advice you can take is the NRMP's advice because they are actually liable for the advice they give.
