Med school apps on the decline?

[propositionjoee]

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For the first time in recent history, it looks like AMCAS/AACOMAS apps are down. Meanwhile, there is an average of ~2 or so new programs a year adding a few hundred spots. My own school had an internal portal with detailed application breakdown. Idk if it is 100% up to date, but the number of apps has decreased by almost 20% from last year!Additionally, it appears that app numbers peaked in 2015-2016 and declined slightly last year and looks to be continuing in that trend. I can’t confirm this yet since the 2018 report hasn’t been released, but perhaps some others may want to discuss, confirm or refute this info.


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[de Ribas]

but the number of apps has decreased by almost 20% from last year

Is that a joke?

 

[FriedLemon]

Can you post sources?

 

[jdrb0130]

I wouldn’t be surprised especially with no grade replacement.

 

[de Ribas]

I wouldn’t be surprised especially with no grade replacement.

But not 20%.

50K+ are MD applicants and 20K+ are DO applicants.

If due to grade replacement, then 14K of DO applicants didn't apply?

It's not possible.

 

[de Ribas]

For the first time in recent history, it looks like AMCAS/AACOMAS apps are down. Meanwhile, there is an average of ~2 or so new programs a year adding a few hundred spots. My own school had an internal portal with detailed application breakdown. Idk if it is 100% up to date, but the number of apps has decreased by almost 20% from last year!Additionally, it appears that app numbers peaked in 2015-2016 and declined slightly last year and looks to be continuing in that trend. I can’t confirm this yet since the 2018 report hasn’t been released, but perhaps some others may want to discuss, confirm or refute this info.


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When did you check? Maybe it was like in Junary when people were still applying?

You have to check at the very end of the cycle.

 

[SpartanWolverine]

Since you're posting on the DO forum I'll give you numbers for that:
2015-16: 188,438 applications
2016-17: 189,320
2017-18: 186,991
School specific information here. Some up, some down, some new schools, etc. Hard to make an overall prediction when the cumulative numbers have, at most, a 2% difference. We'll see what the new numbers look like when they're released, though.

 

[de Ribas]

Since you're posting on the DO forum I'll give you numbers for that:
2015-16: 188,438 applications
2016-17: 189,320
2017-18: 186,991
School specific information here. Some up, some down, some new schools, etc. Hard to make an overall prediction when the cumulative numbers have, at most, a 2% difference. We'll see what the new numbers look like when they're released, though.

Where is 20% decline?

Plus amount of applications and number of applicants is different thing. Number of applications cand decline but the number of applicants can stay the same.

 

[de Ribas]

Since you're posting on the DO forum I'll give you numbers for that:
2015-16: 188,438 applications
2016-17: 189,320
2017-18: 186,991
School specific information here. Some up, some down, some new schools, etc. Hard to make an overall prediction when the cumulative numbers have, at most, a 2% difference. We'll see what the new numbers look like when they're released, though.

LU-COM has declined apps by almost 50%.

Some schools have significantly more apps.

What matters is that enrollment is higher than from the previous year.

 

[SpartanWolverine]

Where is 20% decline?

Plus amount of applications and number of applicants is different thing. Number of applications cand decline but the number of applicants can stay the same.

I don't think there is one, overall. Certainly possible at any given school as shown in the numbers though.

And yes, I agree re: number of applications vs applicants. This is the information provided by AACOM; I don't think they report # applicants.

 

[de Ribas]

I don't think there is one, overall. Certainly possible at any given school as shown in the numbers though.

And yes, I agree re: number of applications vs applicants. This is the information provided by AACOM; I don't think they report # applicants.

They do report # of applicants in the other documents where all GPA/MCAT data is.

 

[propositionjoee]

Can you post sources?

I will not provide this specific source because it is only viewable from the student portal of a specific school. I did say that the numbers may not be 100% up to date, but it is long past the deadline for primary app submission and all the other info I can view there is up to date. I do think this is a real trend, as the economy and job market as mostly recovered from the ~2008 housing bubble fiasco. Only thing that I thought was strange was last year was the first year for as long as I can go back that app numbers decreased.


Note: this is NOT 20% decline for ALL schools. Just specifically my home institution. My school is one of the original DO schools.


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[SpartanWolverine]

They do report # of applicants in the other documents where all GPA/MCAT data is.

Ah yes, you're right.
2017: 20,836 applicants with 183,374 apps
2016: 20,720 applicants with 185,602 apps
2015: 20,447 applicants with 185,162 apps
2014: 17,944 applicants with 155,349 apps
2013: 16,454 applicants with 137,542 apps
2012: 14,945 applicants with 115,754 apps
Pretty remarkably consistent over the last few years.

I will not provide this specific source because it is only viewable from the student portal of a specific school. I did say that the numbers may not be 100% up to date, but it is long past the deadline for primary app submission and all the other info I can view there is up to date. I do think this is a real trend, as the economy and job market as mostly recovered from the ~2008 housing bubble fiasco. Only thing that I thought was strange was last year was the first year for as long as I can go back that app numbers decreased.


Note: this is NOT 20% decline for ALL schools. Just specifically my home institution. My school is one of the original DO schools.


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Certainly possible your school had a drop for one reason or another. But I'm not sure where you're getting the information that overall AMCAS/AACOMAS apps are down as you say in your first post? Overall trends seem to be pretty stable.

 

[de Ribas]

Ah yes, you're right.
2017: 20,836 applicants with 183,374 apps
2016: 20,720 applicants with 185,602 apps
2015: 20,447 applicants with 185,162 apps
2014: 17,944 applicants with 155,349 apps
2013: 16,454 applicants with 137,542 apps
2012: 14,945 applicants with 115,754 apps
Pretty remarkably consistent over the last few years.


Certainly possible your school had a drop for one reason or another. But I'm not sure where you're getting the information that overall AMCAS/AACOMAS apps are down as you say in your first post? Overall trends seem to be pretty stable.

Great post. Thanks

 

[de Ribas]

I will not provide this specific source because it is only viewable from the student portal of a specific school. I did say that the numbers may not be 100% up to date, but it is long past the deadline for primary app submission and all the other info I can view there is up to date. I do think this is a real trend, as the economy and job market as mostly recovered from the ~2008 housing bubble fiasco. Only thing that I thought was strange was last year was the first year for as long as I can go back that app numbers decreased.


Note: this is NOT 20% decline for ALL schools. Just specifically my home institution. My school is one of the original DO schools.


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Besides LUCOM, CUSOM has large decline by 1300 apps

 

[propositionjoee]

Besides LUCOM, CUSOM has large decline by 1300 apps

Would be interested in the total numbers for 2018. I think there was an increase of ~500 m1 spots last year which is something that seems to be continuing with more new schools opening up every year.


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[propositionjoee]

Ah yes, you're right.
2017: 20,836 applicants with 183,374 apps
2016: 20,720 applicants with 185,602 apps
2015: 20,447 applicants with 185,162 apps
2014: 17,944 applicants with 155,349 apps
2013: 16,454 applicants with 137,542 apps
2012: 14,945 applicants with 115,754 apps
Pretty remarkably consistent over the last few years.


Certainly possible your school had a drop for one reason or another. But I'm not sure where you're getting the information that overall AMCAS/AACOMAS apps are down as you say in your first post? Overall trends seem to be pretty stable.

I apologize. No decline in overall apps, although steady numbers with increases in m1 spots has a somewhat similar effect. Would be interested in the numbers for this year since the drop is significant at my school.

You always hear from older folks to “not go into medicine, medicine isn’t what it used to be, the golden days are over”...etc etc...just perhaps we are seeing the small effects of larger trends at play.




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[WhereMyLiberalsAt]

2012-2014 —> increase of ~3000ish

2015-2017—> increase of ~500ish

Not saying it means anything.... But pretty interesting.

 

[Osminog]

What an asinine thread.

 

[cliquesh]

I apologize. No decline in overall apps, although steady numbers with increases in m1 spots has a somewhat similar effect. Would be interested in the numbers for this year since the drop is significant at my school.

You always hear from older folks to “not go into medicine, medicine isn’t what it used to be, the golden days are over”...etc etc...just perhaps we are seeing the small effects of larger trends at play.




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Usually people don't apply to med school when the economy is doing well. The economy has been doing pretty well in recent years. 2017 was, in general, a great year for the US economy. This year; not so much.