Medical School Admission Trends

[TexasFight]

This is just a thread to speculate on on trends in medical school admissions. I'm not saying anything here is 100% correct, but just ideas to explain trends. In another thread I saw this document:
http://www.aamc.org/data/facts/applicantmatriculant/table17-fact2009mcatgpa98-09-web.pdf

It made me wonder why there was such a huge drop in applicants from 1998 to 2002. And then a huge jump in applicants from 2002 to 2007. The number of matriculates have been steadily rising throughout this period.

Possible explanation: A recent increase in medical school spots encouraged students to apply thinking they had a better shot to get in.

Possible superficial explanation: The recent increase in applicants coincides with the release of medical TV shows like House and Grey's Anatomy.

This may be really boring to some people, but I really enjoy explaining trends (Freakonomics was an amazing read). If anyone is the same way, please join in.

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[Andy71600]

This is just a thread to speculate on on trends in medical school admissions. I'm not saying anything here is 100% correct, but just ideas to explain trends. In another thread I saw this document:
http://www.aamc.org/data/facts/applicantmatriculant/table17-fact2009mcatgpa98-09-web.pdf

It made me wonder why there was such a huge drop in applicants from 1998 to 2002. And then a huge jump in applicants from 2002 to 2007. The number of matriculates have been steadily rising throughout this period.

Possible explanation: A recent increase in medical school spots encouraged students to apply thinking they had a better shot to get in.

Possible superficial explanation: The recent increase in applicants coincides with the release of medical TV shows like House and Grey's Anatomy.

This may be really boring to some people, but I really enjoy explaining trends (Freakonomics was an amazing read). If anyone is the same way, please join in.

I honestly would not be surprised at all if this is actually the real reason. I cannot begin to count the amount of people that have exclaimed that they want to be doctors after watching shows like Grey's, House, and SCRUBS.

 

[TexasFight]

I honestly would not be surprised at all if this is actually the real reason. I cannot begin to count the amount of people that have exclaimed that they want to be doctors after watching shows like Grey's, House, and SCRUBS.

Yeah it seems like a sizable percentage of the pre-meds at my school watch at least one of these shows religiously.

I hope they know what they are getting into.

 

[deleted202457]

I honestly and really truely believe it correlates more with the TV shows than available spots. I meet more ppl who say they want to be Drs but no nothing about the process at all. They just see these shows and want to be heroes or get all the girls. I mean some of them don't even know what the MCAT is haha.

 

[Andy71600]

Yeah it seems like a sizable percentage of the pre-meds at my school watch at least one of these shows religiously.

I hope they know what they are getting into.

Scrubs (except for the last season) happens to be one of my favorite tv shows of all time, but yeah I know what I'm getting into lol

 

[Andy71600]

I honestly and really truely believe it correlates more with the TV shows than available spots. I meet more ppl who say they want to be Drs but no nothing about the process at all. They just see these shows and want to be heroes or get all the girls. I mean some of them don't even know what the MCAT is haha.

I had a "pre-med" senior in an upper level class that I was taking who was "going to Harvard med," but had never heard of the MCAT. I smiled and wished her well on her journey

 

[familyaerospace]

I'd bet the economy is playing a role. In 1998, we were still in the Dot Com Boom and I know grad school enrollment decreased overall (I think with the exception of Business.)

While the crash started to happen around 2000, the economy started to go wacky in 2001 after 9/11. A lot of people found themselves out of work and some went back to school to try to ride out the economy. I know a lot of people who did that. That could explain the jump starting around 2002.

Probably not the only explanation, and this makes an assumption that medical schools are like graduate school in this regard.

 

[LizzyM]

Law and business, particularly the "dot-coms", were drawing off many of the best "could-have-been-pre-med" folks in the late 1990s and through 2002. Burst of the dot-com bubble and the drop in the economy after the 9/11 attacks, plus the soul searching that went along with the terrorist attacks, caused some people to reconsider their life choices.

Before Gray's Anatomy there was ER, St. Elsewhere, M*A*SH, Medical Center, Marcus Welby, MD, Dr. Kildare, Ben Casey, and others I'm not going to recall at the moment.

 

[Evergrey]

Yeah it seems like a sizable percentage of the pre-meds at my school watch at least one of these shows religiously.

I hope they know what they are getting into.

One of the doctors I watched said the only TV show (not just medically related) he watched was Scrubs. And that he thought it was funny and had a lot of truth in the show at the same time! I have watched Scrubs in the past, but I only learned about it well after I had decided to pursue medicine as a career. Medical or not, it is the funniest TV show I have ever seen!

 

[mcgyver]

I'd bet the economy is playing a role. In 1998, we were still in the Dot Com Boom and I know grad school enrollment decreased overall (I think with the exception of Business.)

While the crash started to happen around 2000, the economy started to go wacky in 2001 after 9/11. A lot of people found themselves out of work and some went back to school to try to ride out the economy. I know a lot of people who did that. That could explain the jump starting around 2002.

Probably not the only explanation, and this makes an assumption that medical schools are like graduate school in this regard.

i agree. superimpose the med school admissions trend line to the Nasdaq composite, you'll find they're surprisingly similar.

 

[Andy71600]

i agree. superimpose the med school admissions trend line to the Nasdaq composite, you'll find they're surprisingly similar.

wayyy too much time on your hands lol

 

[NotAsking4Much]

I'd bet the economy is playing a role. In 1998, we were still in the Dot Com Boom and I know grad school enrollment decreased overall (I think with the exception of Business.)

While the crash started to happen around 2000, the economy started to go wacky in 2001 after 9/11. A lot of people found themselves out of work and some went back to school to try to ride out the economy. I know a lot of people who did that. That could explain the jump starting around 2002.

Probably not the only explanation, and this makes an assumption that medical schools are like graduate school in this regard.

There's your answer. As I explained in another post, med school rates follow recessions like bread and butter with a lag time of a few years (time needed for premed requirements).

If I've learned anything from health economics, it's this.

There are people that are so talented they are going to excel in more or less whatever they aspire to do. Naturally, with all human beings, the idea of wealth is an amazing concept to them. After the tech industry rose finance with promises of money. Hence you see the dip.

Med school rates will definitely go up in the coming years. America in the past two years has faced a reality check in that there is no field that can generate easy money and easy credit is free money. Bright college graduates will look for fields that pay well and most importantly have job security. There truly are not that many...

The confounding factor now is the health care reform. However, it's still in its infancy and it has been more of an insurance reform if anything. Once that plays out and the effects of doctors' compensation seen, things are going to change drastically. (For example, I definitely expect to see a drop in radiology residency applicants in the next 10 years).

 

[bobow98]

Have you considered economic trends. When Bill Clinton was in office, growth in the tech industry and finance industry was through the roof and anyone half decent could expect to make some pretty decent money without the rigourous training and debt of a medical eductation. After the economic downturn post-2001, medicine was viewed as a much more stable job with relatively good pay, minus the years spent in training. Finance is...well just take a look online and that's self explanatory. And tech, well that's not doing too hot either and Compsci students have a very tough time finding jobs compared to before (as with many other fields of industry as well!).
I think economics plays a pretty major role, on top of the TV shows.

 

[Don Draper]

It's definitely TV.

Jersey Shore inspired me to pursue medicine.

 

[TexasFight]

There's your answer. As I explained in another post, med school rates follow recessions like bread and butter with a lag time of a few years (time needed for premed requirements).

If I've learned anything from health economics, it's this.

There are people that are so talented they are going to excel in more or less whatever they aspire to do. Naturally, with all human beings, the idea of wealth is an amazing concept to them. After the tech industry rose finance with promises of money. Hence you see the dip.

Med school rates will definitely go up in the coming years. America in the past two years has faced a reality check in that there is no field that can generate easy money and easy credit is free money. Bright college graduates will look for fields that pay well and most importantly have job security. There truly are not that many...

The confounding factor now is the health care reform. However, it's still in its infancy and it has been more of an insurance reform if anything. Once that plays out and the effects of doctors' compensation seen, things are going to change drastically. (For example, I definitely expect to see a drop in radiology residency applicants in the next 10 years).

Suppose there is no confounding factor in the form of health care reform. When would you speculate, to your best knowledge, applicant rates would go up? (c/o 2015, 2016, 2017?)

 

[ItzYaYa]

It could also stem from the need of workers in the medical field and the exponential growth rate in the health care field. Not only that, in this economy, it's hard to do what you 'love' without being scorned by your peers. It has gotten so bad to the point where people believe that they can only go into law or medicine. They are the only areas where you're pretty much 'guaranteed' a job.

 

[TooMuchResearch]

Law and business, particularly the "dot-coms", were drawing off many of the best "could-have-been-pre-med" folks in the late 1990s and through 2002. Burst of the dot-com bubble and the drop in the economy after the 9/11 attacks, plus the soul searching that went along with the terrorist attacks, caused some people to reconsider their life choices.

Before Gray's Anatomy there was ER, St. Elsewhere, M*A*SH, Medical Center, Marcus Welby, MD, Dr. Kildare, Ben Casey, and others I'm not going to recall at the moment.

Oh, wow. I haven't thought about St. Elsewhere in many years. I wonder if it's on Hulu...

And as usual, LizzyM is dead on target, even though it took me a moment to recognize her with the new avatar.

 

[cbrons]

I had a "pre-med" senior in an upper level class that I was taking who was "going to Harvard med," but had never heard of the MCAT. I smiled and wished her well on her journey

That's the best response lol

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