Minimum Full Lengths=Predicted Score?

[SoFreakedOut]

Advertisement - Members don't see this ad

Obviously nothing is for sure when it comes to the actual MCAT but what is the minimum number of full lengths with consistent scores that would likely predict where you are truly at?

Options in the poll:
3 nearly identical scores, must be consecutive
4+ nearly identical scores, must be consecutive
3 nearly identical scores, regardless if they're consecutive
4+ nearly identical scores, regardless if they're consecutive
Other, explanation in comment

 

[MediCynical]

I'd say take the average of your last 4 AAMC FLs (7-10 are supposedly the best predictors), and your actual score should be within +/- 2

 

[apumic]

Test-retest reliability of the MCAT is r=0.90-0.92. That allows for an unaccounted for variance of about 2 pts/section or a total variance ±3 pts regardless of how often you get similar scores. Therefore, there is no "correct" answer to this question because there is some degree of random chance involved. Furthermore, ONLY the AAMC tests have a correlation (r-value) with the MCAT than does your GPA or prior tests taken and even so, the AAMC tests give an r value of around 0.8, meaning that a large amount (about 33%) of your score is unaccounted for regardless of how many "consistent" scores you have. Due to this, a consistent AAMC practice test score can only be reliably predictive to within about ±4.5 points (within 3 points per section divided by 2).

That being said, using confidence limits and standard error, we can get better views of this from multiple sources. This allows the MCAT Estimator, for instance, to give good predictions that are likely representative of most people's scores.