More competitive

[Leo Aquarius]

http://www.nrmp.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/ADT2015_final.pdf

Psychiatry is one of 11 specialties that have seen the biggest increases in spots filled by US Seniors from 2011 to 2015. The pendulum appears to be swinging in our direction.

Something to think about.

(Boy, radiology is looking gloomy. US Seniors have dropped off by nearly 50%! )

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[shojimoji]

http://www.nrmp.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/ADT2015_final.pdf

Psychiatry is one of 11 specialties that have seen the biggest increases in spots filled by US Seniors from 2011 to 2015. The pendulum appears to be swinging in our direction.

Something to think about.

(Boy, radiology is looking gloomy. US Seniors have dropped off by nearly 50%! )

that explains a lot about my match. i was wondering, the PGY 2 spots listed in the report are only lik 3 or so unless i am reading it wrong. I thought there were more PGY 2 spots and that they are pretty abundant, or are those outside the match usually?

 

[Leonidis I]

Increases in spots filled by US seniors is mainly due to the total increase in Psych spots altogether (1097 --> 1353, a 23% increase in 4 years) and the fact that there are more US seniors graduating with all of those new schools that popped up in the late 2000's starting to match people. The % US match in Psych actually saw a decline for a few years before picking it up this year (58.3--> 55.1 --> 52.5 --> 51.8 --> 57.2)

Radiology has seen a massive decline % US Seniors (79.9 --> 75.9 -> 74.0 --> 68.9 --> 58.0) and is now basically the same as Psych's US %. However, it seems like the higher-ups in Rads have taken a page from Derm's book and restricted the # of spots (980 --> 999, only a 1.9% increase in 4 years) and recent reports here and on Auntminnie have said the job market is doing better although still not what it was like in the early 2000's glory days.

The question I have is when, if at all, will the massive increases in Psych spots start to effect the job market negatively like what happened with Rads and Path in the mid-late 2000's?

 

[johnhoedack]

Increases in spots filled by US seniors is mainly due to the total increase in Psych spots altogether (1097 --> 1353, a 23% increase in 4 years) and the fact that there are more US seniors graduating with all of those new schools that popped up in the late 2000's starting to match people. The % US match in Psych actually saw a decline for a few years before picking it up this year (58.3--> 55.1 --> 52.5 --> 51.8 --> 57.2)

Wouldn't the data imply the opposite of what you says it does? If the number of spots are increasing and the percent filled by US seniors went up, then I would say both of those together means that psychiatry is getting more competitive. If the number of spots went up and competition from US seniors stayed the same, then we would expect to see percent of US seniors go down if the number of spots expanded.

 

[Mad Jack]

Increases in spots filled by US seniors is mainly due to the total increase in Psych spots altogether (1097 --> 1353, a 23% increase in 4 years) and the fact that there are more US seniors graduating with all of those new schools that popped up in the late 2000's starting to match people. The % US match in Psych actually saw a decline for a few years before picking it up this year (58.3--> 55.1 --> 52.5 --> 51.8 --> 57.2)

Radiology has seen a massive decline % US Seniors (79.9 --> 75.9 -> 74.0 --> 68.9 --> 58.0) and is now basically the same as Psych's US %. However, it seems like the higher-ups in Rads have taken a page from Derm's book and restricted the # of spots (980 --> 999, only a 1.9% increase in 4 years) and recent reports here and on Auntminnie have said the job market is doing better although still not what it was like in the early 2000's glory days.

The question I have is when, if at all, will the massive increases in Psych spots start to effect the job market negatively like what happened with Rads and Path in the mid-late 2000's?

Given the age of the psychiatry workforce (55% are over age 55), the massively increased population compared to the number of residency slots historically, and the increasing number of psychiatric pharmaceuticals available and conditions treated, I don't foresee any trouble from increasing residency slots. What might be a problem is midlevels though, as there's a half dozen different sorts that are vying for psychiatrist territory, and they can be trained in far greater numbers.

 

[Dharma]

Mid levels everywhere across the landscape. Not letting that sway my choice of specialty.

 

[Shikima]

Given the age of the psychiatry workforce (55% are over age 55), the massively increased population compared to the number of residency slots historically, and the increasing number of psychiatric pharmaceuticals available and conditions treated, I don't foresee any trouble from increasing residency slots. What might be a problem is midlevels though, as there's a half dozen different sorts that are vying for psychiatrist territory, and they can be trained in far greater numbers.

Sounds like the Sand People.... they scare easily but return in greater numbers.

 

[DPYN]

Psyc is definitely getting more competitive. Remember that the % of positions filled by AMG seniors declined a few years ago only because prematching was eliminated and so all IMGs now go through the match. The 57.2% is the best we have seen in the post-prematch era. The raw number of AMGs matching in psych had a big increase this year as well.

 

[fzwarrior]

Sounds like the Sand People.... they scare easily but return in greater numbers.

 

[MacDonaldTriad]

I just don’t see the nrmp numbers indicating any meaningful change in competitiveness for psychiatry. OK, it was 57% filled by US allo grads. Since the all in it has been as low as 52 or as high as 55, but 57% isn’t a real trend yet.

The average US allo fill % is 62% for all PGY-I matches, but this includes a lot of non-categoricals and a lot of combo programs that tend to be more IMG filled. Family med may be 44%, path may be 46.6%, IM may be 49%, but Psych being 57% isn’t impressive when Derm is 90.9%, Ortho is 94.3%, ENT 94.6%; now those are hard to get into. As I look at the data, psych is still a standard deviation below average in competitiveness among categorical PGY-I positions. I’m not saying this is a bad thing, it is just not true that the sky is falling if you haven’t gotten in yet.

 

[Mass Effect]

I just don’t see the nrmp numbers indicating any meaningful change in competitiveness for psychiatry. OK, it was 57% filled by US allo grads. Since the all in it has been as low as 52 or as high as 55, but 57% isn’t a real trend yet.

The average US allo fill % is 62% for all PGY-I matches, but this includes a lot of non-categoricals and a lot of combo programs that tend to be more IMG filled. Family med may be 44%, path may be 46.6%, IM may be 49%, but Psych being 57% isn’t impressive when Derm is 90.9%, Ortho is 94.3%, ENT 94.6%; now those are hard to get into. As I look at the data, psych is still a standard deviation below average in competitiveness among categorical PGY-I positions. I’m not saying this is a bad thing, it is just not true that the sky is falling if you haven’t gotten in yet.

I didn't get the sense that anyone in this thread is saying the sky is falling or psych is very competitive. I think most people are just happy that more MS 4s are choosing psychiatry.

 

[prone2xl]

I don't think the data accounts for the DO students matching into ACGME psych.... I would be interested in seeing data as to how that trend has changed. Personally, I met some of the most impressive people on my interviews this past year. Also having friends who had 7 or so places ranked and still go unmatched? that has to speak to the competitiveness.

 

[NickNaylor]

I don't think the data accounts for the DO students matching into ACGME psych.... I would be interested in seeing data as to how that trend has changed. Personally, I met some of the most impressive people on my interviews this past year. Also having friends who had 7 or so places ranked and still go unmatched? that has to speak to the competitiveness.

For the latter, depends on what they ranked and how competitive they are. If they ranked the seven most competitive programs, that's not surprising at all. If they have a super low step 1, failed clerkships, etc. that isn't surprisingly at all. It's still very much a field that, barring any red flags and assuming you can articulate your interest in the field well, most US students shouldn't have trouble getting into.