I don't care for the personal attacks, so I'll just address the factual errors in your post.
I don't really think that's what you actually meant to say - you explicitly argued that the SF Match numbers are lower than what they could have been had the AOA match not taken place ahead of the SF Match and caused the people matching AOA to drop out from the SF Match. We have now established that this is impossible, as the SF Match happens way before the AOA match.
But that's completely different than what you are saying now - now you're talking about the AOA match and SF Match together. This is a new argument entirely that I don't find useful to get into because the AOA match is not the same thing as the ACGME SF Match, and no one was talking about it until just now.
The sample size is not small when you take into account the match statistics over many years. You can add up the numbers from the past few years worth of SF Match reports and find that out for yourself. Match percentage means a lot when you actually add things up and find out that over the past few years there is a very significant sample size.
And no - after working with and speaking to many people involved in residency selection, it is very clear that the DO applications coming across their desks generally aren't people who have no business applying. I know of many programs that just flat out do not even bother opening the DO applications, and other programs who only consider them with some real big wig backing. A few programs may actually consider the DO applicant on the basis of his application alone, but this is likely a very rare thing and is a very big exception to the general rule. The fact remains that a lot of these programs are extremely hesitant to hand out interviews to DOs, if at all. Usually these interviews are due to big name letters and phone calls, or they have made really good friends at a particular program. That's just how it is. People should know these important facts because it will help them in the match. People should not go into the match thinking their 270 Step 1 and strong research will be enough.
Absolutely correct. But I can't blame you for confusing "realism" with "nihilism/pessimism" if they both sound the same in this case.